2017 Simulated RPI Ranks 8.22.2017

Below are teams' Simulated RPI Ranks after incorporating teams' actual game results for games played through Monday, August 21.  Here are some notes that may be helpful:

• As I described in previous posts, for the first three weeks of the season the ratings I assign teams, in order to simulate their game results, are based on their historic ARPI ratings over a period of years.  The period of years depends on how long the head coach has been the team's head coach.  On average, this is the best approach I have found.  A problem with it, however, is that it doesn't address the fact that some teams are trending upward and some downward, and using an average rating over time won't capture that.  Thus if you see some teams with ranks quite far from what you've anticipated, that may be one of the reasons why.

• As I also described in previous posts, the early simulations will tend to underrate teams from the strongest conferences and to overrate teams from the weaker conferences.  Thus the pre-season simulation showed 22 Automatic Qualifiers among the Top 60 teams whereas, on average, the number over the last 10 years has been 15.5.  Over the coming weeks, I expect to see migrations of power conference teams towards better rankings and migrations of teams from lesser conferences towards poorer rankings.  For this week's simulation, there still are 22 Automatic Qualifiers among the Top 60 teams, but the average ranks of the AQs that are not from the 8 strongest conferences have dropped an average of about 3 positions.  Soon, I expect to see some of them dropping out of the Top 60, most likely being replaced by teams from the power conferences.

Team	ARPI Rank	Conference
NorthCarolinaU	1	ACC
FloridaState	2	ACC
WestVirginiaU	3	BigTwelve
VirginiaU	4	ACC
FloridaU	5	SEC
Stanford	6	PacTwelve
UCLA	7	PacTwelve
NotreDame	8	ACC
PennState	9	BigTen
SouthCarolinaU	10	SEC
UCF	11	American
Marquette	12	BigEast
Rutgers	13	BigTen
TexasA&M	14	SEC
BostonCollege	15	ACC
ConnecticutU	16	American
CaliforniaU	17	PacTwelve
SouthernCalifornia	18	PacTwelve
OhioState	19	BigTen
VirginiaTech	20	ACC
Auburn	21	SEC
Northeastern	22	Colonial
Duke	23	ACC
SantaClara	24	WestCoast
SouthAlabama	25	SunBelt
Georgetown	26	BigEast
WisconsinU	27	BigTen
Baylor	28	BigTwelve
TexasTech	29	BigTwelve
Memphis	30	American
Princeton	31	Ivy
OklahomaState	32	BigTwelve
Harvard	33	Ivy
William&Mary	34	Colonial
BostonU	35	Patriot
TennesseeU	36	SEC
SanDiegoState	37	MountainWest
WakeForest	38	ACC
LaSalle	39	AtlanticTen
LongBeachState	40	BigWest
WashingtonState	41	PacTwelve
BYU	42	WestCoast
MurrayState	43	OhioValley
Troy	44	SunBelt
Rice	45	ConferenceUSA
SouthFlorida	46	American
Samford	47	Southern
NorthTexas	48	ConferenceUSA
Pepperdine	49	WestCoast
Clemson	50	ACC
Buffalo	51	MidAmerican
Hofstra	52	Colonial
MinnesotaU	53	BigTen
FloridaGulfCoast	54	AtlanticSun
MissouriU	55	SEC
Liberty	56	BigSouth
MichiganU	57	BigTen
KentuckyU	58	SEC
WashingtonU	59	PacTwelve
StephenFAustin	60	Southland
Dayton	61	AtlanticTen
Monmouth	62	MetroAtlantic
IllinoisU	63	BigTen
MiamiOH	64	MidAmerican
KansasU	65	BigTwelve
TexasU	66	BigTwelve
Providence	67	BigEast
VCU	68	AtlanticTen
PortlandU	69	WestCoast
Louisville	70	ACC
NebraskaU	71	BigTen
MississippiU	72	SEC
WesternMichigan	73	MidAmerican
WesternKentucky	74	ConferenceUSA
UNLV	75	MountainWest
IllinoisState	76	MissouriValley
LSU	77	SEC
Syracuse	78	ACC
WrightState	79	Horizon
JamesMadison	80	Colonial
ColoradoCollege	81	MountainWest
CentralMichigan	82	MidAmerican
UtahU	83	PacTwelve
HighPoint	84	BigSouth
Furman	85	Southern
MiamiFL	86	ACC
Dartmouth	87	Ivy
UtahState	88	MountainWest
Brown	89	Ivy
CalStateFullerton	90	BigWest
TennesseeMartin	91	OhioValley
StLouis	92	AtlanticTen
TexasState	93	SunBelt
StJohns	94	BigEast
ArkansasU	95	SEC
UNCGreensboro	96	Southern
AbileneChristian	97	Southland
Bucknell	98	Patriot
UCIrvine	99	BigWest
UTEP	100	ConferenceUSA
Tulsa	101	American
OklahomaU	102	BigTwelve
ArizonaU	103	PacTwelve
Charlotte	104	ConferenceUSA
Cincinnati	105	American
FairleighDickinson	106	Northeast
GeorgiaU	107	SEC
OregonState	108	PacTwelve
DePaul	109	BigEast
UNCWilmington	110	Colonial
Mercer	111	Southern
NCState	112	ACC
SanDiegoU	113	WestCoast
EastCarolina	114	American
AlabamaU	115	SEC
ColoradoU	116	PacTwelve
Denver	117	Summit
Albany	118	AmericaEast
SMU	119	American
Vanderbilt	120	SEC
CalStateNorthridge	121	BigWest
Marshall	122	ConferenceUSA
Navy	123	Patriot
AppalachianState	124	SunBelt
Milwaukee	125	Horizon
GeorgeMason	126	AtlanticTen
Seattle	127	WAC
JacksonvilleU	128	AtlanticSun
Colgate	129	Patriot
Siena	130	MetroAtlantic
IdahoU	131	BigSky
Hartford	132	AmericaEast
EasternWashington	133	BigSky
BallState	134	MidAmerican
NorthwesternU	135	BigTen
SoutheastMissouriState	136	OhioValley
TCU	137	BigTwelve
MichiganState	138	BigTen
UtahValley	139	WAC
Longwood	140	BigSouth
SELouisiana	141	Southland
OldDominion	142	ConferenceUSA
EastTennesseeState	143	Southern
MiddleTennessee	144	ConferenceUSA
ArizonaState	145	PacTwelve
Richmond	146	AtlanticTen
Columbia	147	Ivy
UALR	148	SunBelt
Campbell	149	BigSouth
SanJoseState	150	MountainWest
MissouriState	151	MissouriValley
IowaState	152	BigTwelve
OralRoberts	153	Summit
StJosephs	154	AtlanticTen
GeorgiaState	155	SunBelt
PennsylvaniaU	156	Ivy
UCSantaBarbara	157	BigWest
GeorgeWashington	158	AtlanticTen
SamHoustonState	159	Southland
Yale	160	Ivy
MassachusettsU	161	AtlanticTen
WyomingU	162	MountainWest
LoyolaMarymount	163	WestCoast
EasternMichigan	164	MidAmerican
Radford	165	BigSouth
KennesawState	166	AtlanticSun
Elon	167	Colonial
NorthernColorado	168	BigSky
NewMexicoU	169	MountainWest
MississippiState	170	SEC
Rider	171	MetroAtlantic
IowaU	172	BigTen
NewHampshireU	173	AmericaEast
Pittsburgh	174	ACC
NorthernArizona	175	BigSky
Cornell	176	Ivy
Creighton	177	BigEast
Drake	178	MissouriValley
CoastalCarolina	179	SunBelt
StFrancis	180	Northeast
DelawareU	181	Colonial
KentState	182	MidAmerican
WesternCarolina	183	Southern
CentralConnecticut	184	Northeast
OregonU	185	PacTwelve
Fordham	186	AtlanticTen
Butler	187	BigEast
FIU	188	ConferenceUSA
Toledo	189	MidAmerican
GeorgiaSouthern	190	SunBelt
Evansville	191	MissouriValley
Fairfield	192	MetroAtlantic
Valparaiso	193	MissouriValley
LouisianaTech	194	ConferenceUSA
Army	195	Patriot
IndianaU	196	BigTen
HoustonBaptist	197	Southland
MarylandU	198	BigTen
GrandCanyon	199	WAC
Lipscomb	200	AtlanticSun
Duquesne	201	AtlanticTen
Temple	202	American
Drexel	203	Colonial
FloridaAtlantic	204	ConferenceUSA
CentralArkansas	205	Southland
MontanaU	206	BigSky
CalPoly	207	BigWest
Howard	208	Southwestern
Houston	209	American
Oakland	210	Horizon
UAB	211	ConferenceUSA
Belmont	212	OhioValley
Morehead	213	OhioValley
SouthDakotaState	214	Summit
SIUEdwardsville	215	OhioValley
UTSA	216	ConferenceUSA
UCDavis	217	BigWest
Detroit	218	Horizon
StonyBrook	219	AmericaEast
SanFrancisco	220	WestCoast
MaineU	221	AmericaEast
Quinnipiac	222	MetroAtlantic
CollegeofCharleston	223	Colonial
UMKC	224	WAC
NorthwesternState	225	Southland
UCRiverside	226	BigWest
NorthernKentucky	227	Horizon
BoiseState	228	MountainWest
TexasSouthern	229	Southwestern
Lehigh	230	Patriot
Winthrop	231	BigSouth
Purdue	232	BigTen
SouthernMississippi	233	ConferenceUSA
AustinPeay	234	OhioValley
KansasState	235	BigTwelve
TennesseeTech	236	OhioValley
Villanova	237	BigEast
Gonzaga	238	WestCoast
RhodeIslandU	239	AtlanticTen
StMarys	240	WestCoast
OhioU	241	MidAmerican
Niagara	242	MetroAtlantic
Stetson	243	AtlanticSun
LoyolaChicago	244	MissouriValley
LouisianaLafayette	245	SunBelt
FresnoState	246	MountainWest
Xavier	247	BigEast
Akron	248	MidAmerican
Wofford	249	Southern
NorthernIllinois	250	MidAmerican
CharlestonSouthern	251	BigSouth
Manhattan	252	MetroAtlantic
ArkansasState	253	SunBelt
SetonHall	254	BigEast
LouisianaMonroe	255	SunBelt
JacksonState	256	Southwestern
Chattanooga	257	Southern
HolyCross	258	Patriot
WeberState	259	BigSky
Lamar	260	Southland
SacredHeart	261	Northeast
NorthDakotaState	262	Summit
Davidson	263	AtlanticTen
HawaiiU	264	BigWest
BowlingGreen	265	MidAmerican
AirForce	266	MountainWest
Towson	267	Colonial
LoyolaMD	268	Patriot
UNCAsheville	269	BigSouth
StBonaventure	270	AtlanticTen
EasternKentucky	271	OhioValley
TexasCorpusChristi	272	Southland
PortlandState	273	BigSky
McNeeseState	274	Southland
Marist	275	MetroAtlantic
IUPUI	276	Horizon
UMBC	277	AmericaEast
NevadaU	278	MountainWest
SouthernUtah	279	BigSky
NorthFlorida	280	AtlanticSun
Lafayette	281	Patriot
GardnerWebb	282	BigSouth
JacksonvilleState	283	OhioValley
Presbyterian	284	BigSouth
CalStateBakersfield	285	WAC
NichollsState	286	Southland
Binghamton	287	AmericaEast
YoungstownState	288	Horizon
American	289	Patriot
RobertMorris	290	Northeast
ColoradoState	291	MountainWest
NewMexicoState	292	WAC
SacramentoState	293	BigSky
VermontU	294	AmericaEast
Wagner	295	Northeast
MississippiValley	296	Southwestern
TexasRGV	297	WAC
PrairieViewA&M	298	Southwestern
IndianaState	299	MissouriValley
ClevelandState	300	Horizon
UNOmaha	301	Summit
VMI	302	Southern
IdahoState	303	BigSky
UMassLowell	304	AmericaEast
Pacific	305	WestCoast
UNI	306	MissouriValley
Citadel	307	Southern
MountStMary	308	Northeast
IllinoisChicago	309	Horizon
IncarnateWord	310	Southland
Canisius	311	MetroAtlantic
Iona	312	MetroAtlantic
WesternIllinois	313	Summit
EasternIllinois	314	OhioValley
AlabamaState	315	Southwestern
ArkansasPineBluff	316	Southwestern
Bryant	317	Northeast
USCUpstate	318	AtlanticSun
NorthDakotaU	319	BigSky
NJIT	320	AtlanticSun
GreenBay	321	Horizon
SouthDakotaU	322	Summit
LongIsland	323	Northeast
IPFW	324	Summit
SouthCarolinaState	325	Independent
AlabamaA&M	326	Southwestern
SouthernU	327	Southwestern
DelawareState	328	Independent
StPeters	329	MetroAtlantic
Grambling	330	Southwestern
ChicagoState	331	WAC
AlcornState	332	Southwestern
Hampton	333	Independent