Monday, August 28, 2017

2017 NCAA Tournament Bracket Simulation 8.28.2017

Here is my system's bracket simulation, which has incorporated the actual results of games played through Sunday, August 27.  Following the table, I'll list additional potential candidates for seeds and at large selections.

1 = #1 seed
2 = #2 seed
3 = #3 seed
4 = #4 seed
5 = unseeded Automatic Qualifiers
6 = at large selections
7 = teams in the Top 60 but no at large selection

Within each group of teams, the group members are arranged first by the number of factors for which they meet a "yes" you get a positive seed or at large decision from the Committee and second by the number of factors for which they meet a "no" you don't get a positive seed or at large decision.
NCAA Seed or Selection ARPI Rank for Formation Team for Formation
1 2 FloridaU
1 3 FloridaState
1 5 VirginiaU
1 1 NorthCarolinaU
2 6 Stanford
2 4 WestVirginiaU
2 9 UCF
2 7 UCLA
3 8 TexasA&M
3 11 NotreDame
3 10 PennState
3 14 Rutgers
4 12 SouthCarolinaU
4 13 Marquette
4 18 SouthernCalifornia
4 23 Georgetown
5 15 MurrayState
5 20 Northeastern
5 46 LaSalle
5 24 SantaClara
5 40 SouthAlabama
5 33 Harvard
5 31 LongBeachState
5 45 BostonU
5 54 Monmouth
5 47 Rice
5 51 FloridaGulfCoast
5 52 SanDiegoState
5 49 Buffalo
5 56 Liberty
5 64 StephenFAustin
5 78 IllinoisState
5 117 Seattle
5 128 Denver
5 65 Samford
5 68 WrightState
5 93 FairleighDickinson
5 124 Albany
5 149 EasternWashington
6 21 VirginiaTech
6 16 BostonCollege
6 30 Duke
6 19 OhioState
6 22 CaliforniaU
6 36 WakeForest
6 25 WisconsinU
6 26 TexasTech
6 17 ConnecticutU
6 35 OklahomaState
6 27 Memphis
6 39 Clemson
6 41 Pepperdine
6 28 Princeton
6 32 William&Mary
6 37 TennesseeU
6 29 Auburn
6 34 Baylor
6 48 MinnesotaU
6 42 SouthFlorida
6 43 BYU
6 38 WashingtonState
6 44 Hofstra
6 60 Troy
7 58 Providence
7 50 MississippiU
7 53 MissouriU
7 59 TexasU
7 57 KansasU
7 55 NorthTexas
  62 KentuckyU
  81 Syracuse
  67 MichiganU
  92 WesternKentucky
  123 ColoradoU
  73 JamesMadison
  104 MiamiFL
  114 NCState
  91 AlabamaU
  61 PortlandU
  66 WashingtonU
  69 NebraskaU
  70 LSU
  71 VCU
  74 CalStateFullerton
  76 StLouis
  77 Dartmouth
  72 Louisville
  80 UtahU
  85 ColoradoCollege
  75 UNLV
  84 StJohns
  107 UNCWilmington
  90 ArkansasU
  102 SMU
  109 EastCarolina
  110 ArizonaU
  63 Dayton
  96 AbileneChristian
  103 Vanderbilt
  106 SanDiegoU
  108 OregonState
  79 CentralMichigan
  87 UtahState
  94 GeorgiaU
  98 Cincinnati
  101 IllinoisU
  122 SoutheastMissouriState
  134 TCU
  135 Longwood
  137 IowaState
  138 GeorgeWashington
  148 MississippiState
  82 HighPoint
  99 OklahomaU
  121 MichiganState
  125 Columbia
  126 NorthwesternU
  83 UCIrvine
  89 WesternMichigan
  100 Bucknell
  127 ArizonaState
  145 LoyolaMarymount
  111 Charlotte
  113 CalStateNorthridge
  112 UNCGreensboro
  86 Brown
  97 TennesseeMartin
  119 TexasState
  95 Tulsa
  142 MissouriState
  88 MiamiOH
  105 DePaul
  116 Milwaukee
  139 GeorgeMason
  118 Siena
  132 Colgate
  120 Navy
  130 AppalachianState
  133 Yale
  136 UALR
  140 SamHoustonState
  141 Richmond
  143 Campbell
  115 Furman
  146 StJosephs
  147 Marshall
  129 UtahValley
  150 JacksonvilleU
  131 UTEP
  144 CentralConnecticut

Other possibilities:

  • #1 seeds:  Stanford, West Virginia, UCF, Texas A&M, UCLA
  • #2 seeds:  Texas A&M, Penn State, Notre Dame, South Carolina, Rutgers
  • #3 seeds:  South Carolina, Marquette, Virginia Tech, Southern California
  • #4 seeds:  Murray State (!?), Virginia Tech, Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Northeastern
  • At large, from outside the Top 60:  Kentucky, Syracuse, Michigan, James Madison, Miami, FL, Alabama, Portland, Washington, Nebraska, LSU, VCU


2017 Simulated RPI Ranks 8.28.2017

Here are my system's simulated ARPI ranks, with the system using the actual results of all games played through Sunday, August 27.  All the usual warnings apply, so take these with a big grain of salt:

Team ARPI Rank Conference
NorthCarolinaU 1 ACC
FloridaU 2 SEC
FloridaState 3 ACC
WestVirginiaU 4 BigTwelve
VirginiaU 5 ACC
Stanford 6 PacTwelve
UCLA 7 PacTwelve
TexasA&M 8 SEC
UCF 9 American
PennState 10 BigTen
NotreDame 11 ACC
SouthCarolinaU 12 SEC
Marquette 13 BigEast
Rutgers 14 BigTen
MurrayState 15 OhioValley
BostonCollege 16 ACC
ConnecticutU 17 American
SouthernCalifornia 18 PacTwelve
OhioState 19 BigTen
Northeastern 20 Colonial
VirginiaTech 21 ACC
CaliforniaU 22 PacTwelve
Georgetown 23 BigEast
SantaClara 24 WestCoast
WisconsinU 25 BigTen
TexasTech 26 BigTwelve
Memphis 27 American
Princeton 28 Ivy
Auburn 29 SEC
Duke 30 ACC
LongBeachState 31 BigWest
William&Mary 32 Colonial
Harvard 33 Ivy
Baylor 34 BigTwelve
OklahomaState 35 BigTwelve
WakeForest 36 ACC
TennesseeU 37 SEC
WashingtonState 38 PacTwelve
Clemson 39 ACC
SouthAlabama 40 SunBelt
Pepperdine 41 WestCoast
SouthFlorida 42 American
BYU 43 WestCoast
Hofstra 44 Colonial
BostonU 45 Patriot
LaSalle 46 AtlanticTen
Rice 47 ConferenceUSA
MinnesotaU 48 BigTen
Buffalo 49 MidAmerican
MississippiU 50 SEC
FloridaGulfCoast 51 AtlanticSun
SanDiegoState 52 MountainWest
MissouriU 53 SEC
Monmouth 54 MetroAtlantic
NorthTexas 55 ConferenceUSA
Liberty 56 BigSouth
KansasU 57 BigTwelve
Providence 58 BigEast
TexasU 59 BigTwelve
Troy 60 SunBelt
PortlandU 61 WestCoast
KentuckyU 62 SEC
Dayton 63 AtlanticTen
StephenFAustin 64 Southland
Samford 65 Southern
WashingtonU 66 PacTwelve
MichiganU 67 BigTen
WrightState 68 Horizon
NebraskaU 69 BigTen
LSU 70 SEC
VCU 71 AtlanticTen
Louisville 72 ACC
JamesMadison 73 Colonial
CalStateFullerton 74 BigWest
UNLV 75 MountainWest
StLouis 76 AtlanticTen
Dartmouth 77 Ivy
IllinoisState 78 MissouriValley
CentralMichigan 79 MidAmerican
UtahU 80 PacTwelve
Syracuse 81 ACC
HighPoint 82 BigSouth
UCIrvine 83 BigWest
StJohns 84 BigEast
ColoradoCollege 85 MountainWest
Brown 86 Ivy
UtahState 87 MountainWest
MiamiOH 88 MidAmerican
WesternMichigan 89 MidAmerican
ArkansasU 90 SEC
AlabamaU 91 SEC
WesternKentucky 92 ConferenceUSA
FairleighDickinson 93 Northeast
GeorgiaU 94 SEC
Tulsa 95 American
AbileneChristian 96 Southland
TennesseeMartin 97 OhioValley
Cincinnati 98 American
OklahomaU 99 BigTwelve
Bucknell 100 Patriot
IllinoisU 101 BigTen
SMU 102 American
Vanderbilt 103 SEC
MiamiFL 104 ACC
DePaul 105 BigEast
SanDiegoU 106 WestCoast
UNCWilmington 107 Colonial
OregonState 108 PacTwelve
EastCarolina 109 American
ArizonaU 110 PacTwelve
Charlotte 111 ConferenceUSA
UNCGreensboro 112 Southern
CalStateNorthridge 113 BigWest
NCState 114 ACC
Furman 115 Southern
Milwaukee 116 Horizon
Seattle 117 WAC
Siena 118 MetroAtlantic
TexasState 119 SunBelt
Navy 120 Patriot
MichiganState 121 BigTen
SoutheastMissouriState 122 OhioValley
ColoradoU 123 PacTwelve
Albany 124 AmericaEast
Columbia 125 Ivy
NorthwesternU 126 BigTen
ArizonaState 127 PacTwelve
Denver 128 Summit
UtahValley 129 WAC
AppalachianState 130 SunBelt
UTEP 131 ConferenceUSA
Colgate 132 Patriot
Yale 133 Ivy
TCU 134 BigTwelve
Longwood 135 BigSouth
UALR 136 SunBelt
IowaState 137 BigTwelve
GeorgeWashington 138 AtlanticTen
GeorgeMason 139 AtlanticTen
SamHoustonState 140 Southland
Richmond 141 AtlanticTen
MissouriState 142 MissouriValley
Campbell 143 BigSouth
CentralConnecticut 144 Northeast
LoyolaMarymount 145 WestCoast
StJosephs 146 AtlanticTen
Marshall 147 ConferenceUSA
MississippiState 148 SEC
EasternWashington 149 BigSky
JacksonvilleU 150 AtlanticSun
Hartford 151 AmericaEast
Butler 152 BigEast
IdahoU 153 BigSky
OldDominion 154 ConferenceUSA
UCSantaBarbara 155 BigWest
Mercer 156 Southern
KennesawState 157 AtlanticSun
Radford 158 BigSouth
StFrancis 159 Northeast
EastTennesseeState 160 Southern
Elon 161 Colonial
SELouisiana 162 Southland
Creighton 163 BigEast
PennsylvaniaU 164 Ivy
BallState 165 MidAmerican
GeorgiaState 166 SunBelt
NorthernColorado 167 BigSky
WyomingU 168 MountainWest
IowaU 169 BigTen
SanJoseState 170 MountainWest
Pittsburgh 171 ACC
DelawareU 172 Colonial
NorthernArizona 173 BigSky
MiddleTennessee 174 ConferenceUSA
NewMexicoU 175 MountainWest
MassachusettsU 176 AtlanticTen
Cornell 177 Ivy
NewHampshireU 178 AmericaEast
Drake 179 MissouriValley
Fordham 180 AtlanticTen
IndianaU 181 BigTen
Rider 182 MetroAtlantic
Fairfield 183 MetroAtlantic
GeorgiaSouthern 184 SunBelt
Valparaiso 185 MissouriValley
EasternMichigan 186 MidAmerican
MontanaU 187 BigSky
OralRoberts 188 Summit
KentState 189 MidAmerican
Belmont 190 OhioValley
GrandCanyon 191 WAC
SanFrancisco 192 WestCoast
AustinPeay 193 OhioValley
OregonU 194 PacTwelve
MarylandU 195 BigTen
CoastalCarolina 196 SunBelt
FloridaAtlantic 197 ConferenceUSA
Toledo 198 MidAmerican
HoustonBaptist 199 Southland
Drexel 200 Colonial
SIUEdwardsville 201 OhioValley
Duquesne 202 AtlanticTen
StonyBrook 203 AmericaEast
Howard 204 Southwestern
Quinnipiac 205 MetroAtlantic
CalPoly 206 BigWest
UAB 207 ConferenceUSA
Houston 208 American
Lehigh 209 Patriot
TennesseeTech 210 OhioValley
Temple 211 American
Army 212 Patriot
Lipscomb 213 AtlanticSun
Oakland 214 Horizon
CentralArkansas 215 Southland
NorthwesternState 216 Southland
UMKC 217 WAC
UCDavis 218 BigWest
MaineU 219 AmericaEast
Morehead 220 OhioValley
CollegeofCharleston 221 Colonial
Evansville 222 MissouriValley
FIU 223 ConferenceUSA
LouisianaTech 224 ConferenceUSA
Detroit 225 Horizon
StMarys 226 WestCoast
UCRiverside 227 BigWest
UTSA 228 ConferenceUSA
Xavier 229 BigEast
KansasState 230 BigTwelve
WesternCarolina 231 Southern
TexasSouthern 232 Southwestern
SouthDakotaState 233 Summit
Gonzaga 234 WestCoast
BoiseState 235 MountainWest
Villanova 236 BigEast
Niagara 237 MetroAtlantic
Purdue 238 BigTen
SouthernMississippi 239 ConferenceUSA
NorthernKentucky 240 Horizon
OhioU 241 MidAmerican
HolyCross 242 Patriot
Winthrop 243 BigSouth
SetonHall 244 BigEast
RhodeIslandU 245 AtlanticTen
Lamar 246 Southland
LoyolaChicago 247 MissouriValley
SacredHeart 248 Northeast
Manhattan 249 MetroAtlantic
Akron 250 MidAmerican
CharlestonSouthern 251 BigSouth
Towson 252 Colonial
WeberState 253 BigSky
Stetson 254 AtlanticSun
BowlingGreen 255 MidAmerican
EasternKentucky 256 OhioValley
JacksonState 257 Southwestern
NorthernIllinois 258 MidAmerican
AirForce 259 MountainWest
Presbyterian 260 BigSouth
FresnoState 261 MountainWest
Marist 262 MetroAtlantic
UNCAsheville 263 BigSouth
JacksonvilleState 264 OhioValley
Davidson 265 AtlanticTen
RobertMorris 266 Northeast
McNeeseState 267 Southland
LoyolaMD 268 Patriot
ArkansasState 269 SunBelt
LouisianaLafayette 270 SunBelt
NorthFlorida 271 AtlanticSun
Chattanooga 272 Southern
TexasCorpusChristi 273 Southland
CalStateBakersfield 274 WAC
HawaiiU 275 BigWest
Wofford 276 Southern
IUPUI 277 Horizon
StBonaventure 278 AtlanticTen
PortlandState 279 BigSky
NorthDakotaState 280 Summit
Wagner 281 Northeast
SouthernUtah 282 BigSky
Lafayette 283 Patriot
Binghamton 284 AmericaEast
NewMexicoState 285 WAC
GardnerWebb 286 BigSouth
VermontU 287 AmericaEast
SacramentoState 288 BigSky
NevadaU 289 MountainWest
UMBC 290 AmericaEast
LouisianaMonroe 291 SunBelt
TexasRGV 292 WAC
PrairieViewA&M 293 Southwestern
American 294 Patriot
IndianaState 295 MissouriValley
MississippiValley 296 Southwestern
ColoradoState 297 MountainWest
NichollsState 298 Southland
YoungstownState 299 Horizon
MountStMary 300 Northeast
EasternIllinois 301 OhioValley
Pacific 302 WestCoast
ClevelandState 303 Horizon
Bryant 304 Northeast
UNOmaha 305 Summit
Iona 306 MetroAtlantic
IncarnateWord 307 Southland
UMassLowell 308 AmericaEast
AlabamaState 309 Southwestern
Canisius 310 MetroAtlantic
UNI 311 MissouriValley
VMI 312 Southern
IdahoState 313 BigSky
IllinoisChicago 314 Horizon
Citadel 315 Southern
WesternIllinois 316 Summit
ArkansasPineBluff 317 Southwestern
LongIsland 318 Northeast
USCUpstate 319 AtlanticSun
NJIT 320 AtlanticSun
NorthDakotaU 321 BigSky
SouthDakotaU 322 Summit
IPFW 323 Summit
GreenBay 324 Horizon
SouthCarolinaState 325 Independent
StPeters 326 MetroAtlantic
SouthernU 327 Southwestern
DelawareState 328 Independent
AlabamaA&M 329 Southwestern
Grambling 330 Southwestern
ChicagoState 331 WAC
AlcornState 332 Southwestern
Hampton 333 Independent