2025 ARTICLE 23: RPI REPORTS AFTER WEEK 9 GAMES

This week, I've added a new item to the RPI Report that is limited to games already played.  The new item compares teams', conferences', and regions' actual winning percentages so far (using the NCAA winning percentage formula) to what one would expect their winning percentages to be based on their current NCAA RPI ratings.  This allows you to see which teams, conferences, and regions have performed better or more poorly than their NCAA RPI ratings say they have performed.  In other words, they show where the current NCAA RPI ratings overstate or understate teams', conferences', and regions' ratings.

Ths article also will include projected NCAA Tournament seeds and at large selections based on the Committee using the NCAA RPI, as compared to projected seeds and at large selections if the Committee were using the Balanced RPI.

THIS WEEK'S TABLES

Below are the following reports, after completion of Week 9 of the season:

1.  Actual Current Ranks.  These are based only on games already played, through Sunday, October 12.  Teams' actual ranks in these reports (and the ratings on which the ranks are based) match those published by the NCAA at the NCAA's RPI Archive (except that the NCAA mistakenly is imposing penalty adjustments for losses and ties against non-Division 1 opponents), and also those published at Chris Henderson's 2025 Division I College Women's Soccer Schedule website.  These reports also include teams' current KPI, Massey, and Balanced RPI ranks so you can compare those systems' ratings.

2.  "Predicted" End-of-Season Ranks.  These are RPI reports based on the actual results of games already played PLUS predicted results of games not yet played.  The reports suggest where teams might end up at the end of the regular season.  The reports show both NCAA RPI and Balanced RPI ranks.

The result predictions for future games use teams' actual current NCAA RPI ratings as the basis for the predictions.  So these reports show where teams will end up if they all perform exactly in accord with their current NCAA RPI ratings.  As each week passes, the predictions come closer and closer to where teams will end up.

ACTUAL CURRENT RANKS

 Here are the actual current NCAA RPI and Balanced RPI ranks for teams.  For an Excel workbook containing these data, use the following link: 2025 RPI Report Actual Results Only After Week 9.

NOTE:  If you use the link, you will see the workbook in a Google Sheets format, which will be difficult or impossible to read.  Rather than trying to use that workbook, take the following steps to download the workbook as an Excel workbook:

Click on File in the upper left.

In the drop down menu, click on Download.

In the drop down menu, click on Microsoft Excel (.xlsx).

This will download the workbook as an Excel workbook.

In the tables, be sure to note the differences between teams', conferences', and regions' NCAA RPI ranks and their ranks, within the NCAA RPI formula, as strength of schedule contributors to their opponents' ratings.  You also can see the same information for the Balanced RPI.  Also check the the salmon-highlighted columns showing the differences between actual winning percentages and probable winning percentages.  The probable winning percentages are based on current NCAA RPI ratings.

Also, for each of teams, conferences, and regions, these reports show current KPI and Massey ranks so you can compare them to the NCAA RPI and Balanced RPI ranks.

In the Teams table, the color coded columns on the left show, based on past history, the teams that are potential seeds and at large selections for the NCAA Tournament, given their NCAA RPI ranks at this point in the season.

Here are the actual current ranks for conferences:

And here are the current actual ranks for the regions.  Note that at the right end of the table are the distributions of each region's games among the different regions and the proportion of tie games when teams from a region are playing opponents from the same region:

"PREDICTED" END-OF-SEASON RANKS

Here are the predicted end-of-season NCAA RPI  and Balanced RPI ranks for teams.  For an Excel workbook containing these data, use the following link: 2025 RPI Report After Week 9.

The color coded columns on the left show, based on past history, the teams that would be candidates for NCAA Tournament seed pods and at large positions if these were the final NCAA RPI ranks:

Here are the predicted end-of-season ranks for conferences:

And here are the predicted end-of-season ranks for the four geographic regions:

PREDICTED NCAA TOURNAMENT BRACKET

I also have used my bracket formation program to show the currently projected NCAA Tournament bracket using the NCAA RPI as compared to what it would be if the Women's Soccer Committee were using the Balanced RPI.  I won't go into a detailed explanation here of how the program works, except to say it is based on the Committee's decision patterns from 2007 to the present and by the end of the season its predictions have been on average within 1 position of the Committee's at large selections.  I believe the current comparison paints a good general picture of the difference between the NCAA RPI and the Balanced RPI.  Remember, the NCAA RPI discriminates against some conferences and regions and in favor of others.  The Balanced RPI eliminates most of the discrimination.

The following table shows how the systems' NCAA Tournament brackets compare.  It has teams arranged by region and then by conference, as I believe this gives the best picture of what happens when the Balanced RPI removes the NCAA RPI's discrimination.  To the right of the table is a key to the entries in the Status columns.

Peruse the table and draw your own conclusions.  I recommend that rather than focusing on specific teams, you focus on the regions and conferences with teams moving up or down in the seeds, in or out of the at large candidate group, and in and out of the at large selections in the shift from the NCAA RPI to the Balanced RPI.