2025 ARTICLE 21: RPI REPORTS AFTER WEEK 8 GAMES

In the weekly reports this year, the detailed data has included teams', conferences', and regions' NCAA RPI and Balanced RPI ranks and their opponents' average ranks, but also their ranks and their opponents' average ranks as strength of schedule contributors within the respective RPI formulas.  As you have been able to see, for the NCAA RPI, the overall ranks and the ranks as strength of schedule contributors can be very different.  For the Balanced RPI, they essentially are the same.  Here is a table that shows this for teams based on all seasons since 2010 (excluding Covid-affected 2020):

As you can see, the average and median differences between teams' NCAA RPI overall ranks and their ranks within the NCAA formula as strength of schedule contributors are large, with an extremely large maximum.  Further, only about a third of teams have differences of 15 or fewer positions, meaning about two-thirds have differences greater than 15 positions.  One result of this is that teams, when scheduling, need to consider not only the likely ranks of potential opponents but also their likely ranks as strength of schedule contributors since it is those ranks that get built into the NCAA RPI formula.  It makes it possible to "trick" the RPI by scheduling opponents whose ranks as strength of schedule contributors are likely to be better than their overall ranks.  The significance of the 15 or fewer positions difference percentage is that it is roughly the break point below which worrying about the difference between overall rank and strength of schedule contributor rank isn't very productive.

I designed the Balanced RPI specifically to equalize teams' overall ranks and their ranks as strength of schedule contributors.  As you can see, for practical purposes Balanced RPI overall ranks and ranks as strength of schedule contributors are the same.  (In a later post, I'll show how this essentially eliminates the NCAA RPI's discrimination when rating conferences' and regions' teams in relation to teams from other conferences and regions.)

In the weekly reports, you can see that this results in the NCAA RPI and Balanced RPI ranking teams differently.  And, especially as the weeks pass, I anticipate you will see that the NCAA RPI and KPI ranks tend to be relatively similar to each other, with the Balanced RPI and Massey ranks being similar to each other.  Starting with this week, I've re-arranged the report columns so that you more easily can see how the four systems compare.

THIS WEEK'S TABLES

Below are the following reports, after completion of Week 8 of the season:

1.  Actual Current Ranks.  These are based only on games already played.  Teams' actual ranks in these reports (and the ratings on which the ranks are based) exactly match those published by the NCAA at the NCAA's RPI Archive, and also those published at Chris Henderson's 2025 Division I College Women's Soccer Schedule website (with two minor exceptions).  These reports also include teams' current KPI, Massey, and Balanced RPI ranks so you can see how the different rating systems compare.

2.  "Predicted" End-of-Season Ranks.  These are RPI reports based on the actual results of games already played PLUS predicted results of games not yet played.  The purpose of these reports is to give an idea of where teams might end up at the end of the regular season. The reports show both NCAA RPI and Balanced RPI ranks.

The result predictions for future games use teams' actual current NCAA RPI ratings as the basis for the predictions.  So these reports show where teams will end up if they all perform exactly in accord with their current NCAA RPI ratings.  As each week passes, the predictions come closer and closer to where teams will end up.

ACTUAL CURRENT RANKS

 Here are the actual current NCAA RPI and Balanced RPI ranks for teams.  For an Excel workbook containing these data, use the following link: 2025 RPI Report Actual Results Only After Week 8.

NOTE:  If you use the link, you will see the workbook in a Google Sheets format, which will be difficult or impossible to read.  Rather than trying to use that workbook, take the following steps to download the workbook as an Excel workbook:

Click on File in the upper left.

In the drop down menu, click on Download.

In the drop down menu, click on Microsoft Excel (.xlsx).

This will download the workbook as an Excel workbook.

In the tables, be sure to note the differences between teams', conferences', and regions' NCAA RPI ranks and their ranks, within the NCAA RPI formula, as strength of schedule contributors to their opponents' ratings.  You also can see the same information for the Balanced RPI.

Also, for each of teams, conferences, and regions, these reports show current KPI and Massey ranks so you can compare them to the NCAA RPI and Balanced RPI ranks.

In the Teams table, the color coded columns on the left show, based on past history, the teams that are potential seeds and at large selections for the NCAA Tournament, given their NCAA RPI ranks at this point in the season.

Here are the actual current ranks for conferences:

And here are the current actual ranks for the regions.  Note that at the right end of the table are the distributions of each region's games among the different regions and the proportion of tie games when teams from a region are playing opponents from the same region:

"PREDICTED" END-OF-SEASON RANKS

Here are the predicted end-of-season NCAA RPI  and Balanced RPI ranks for teams.  For an Excel workbook containing these data, use the following link: 2025 RPI Report After Week 8.

The color coded columns on the left show, based on past history, the teams that would be candidates for NCAA Tournament seed pods and at large positions if these were the final NCAA RPI ranks:

Here are the predicted end-of-season ranks for conferences:

And here are the predicted end-of-season ranks for the four geographic regions: