There are several important news items this week:
1. RPI Valuation of Ties. With the NCAA having published its initial RPI ratings and ranks for the season, I have verified that in the Winning Percentage portion of the RPI formula, ties now are weighted as one-third of a win rather than one-half. Thus the new Winning Percentage formula is:
(Wins + Ties/3)/(Wins + Losses + Ties)
For the Opponents' Winning Percentage and Opponents' Opponents' Winning Percentage portions of the RPI formula, however, ties will continue to be weighted as one-half of a win. NCAA staff has confirmed this.
2. Bonus and Penalty Adjustments. The old regime for bonuses for good wins and ties and penalties for poor losses and ties has been replaced by a new, expanded regime. The new regime is as follows:
Bonuses for Wins and Ties v Teams with Unadjusted RPI Ranks of 1 to 25
Win Away 0.0032
Win Neutral 0.0030
Win Home 0.0028
Tie Away 0.0020
Tie Neutral 0.0018
Tie Home 0.0016
Bonuses for Wins and Ties v Teams with Unadjusted RPI Ranks of 26 to 50
Win Away 0.0026
Win Neutral 0.0024
Win Home 0.0022
Tie Away 0.0014
Tie Neutral 0.0012
Tie Home 0.0010
Bonuses for Wins v Teams with Unadjusted RPI Ranks of 51 to 100
Win Away 0.0008
Win Neutral 0.0006
Win Home 0.0004
Penalties for Ties and Losses v Teams with Unadjusted RPI Ranks of 151 to 250
Loss Home -0.0014
Loss Neutral -0.0012
Loss Away -0.0010
Tie Home -0.0008
Tie Neutral -0.0006
Tie Away -0.0004
Penalties for Ties and Losses v Teams with Unadjusted RPI Ranks of 251 and Poorer
Loss Home -0.0026
Loss Neutral -0.0024
Loss Away -0.0022
Tie Home -0.0020
Tie Neutral -0.0018
Tie Away -0.0016
3, Calculation of 0.500 Minimum Winning Percentage to Qualify for an NCAA Tournament At Large Position. A team must have at least an 0.500 winning percentage to qualify for an NCAA Tournament at large position. NCAA staff advises that in calculating winning percentage for this requirement, a tie will be counted as half a win.
Hereafter, my weekly tables will be based on the NCAA RPI formula with these changes.
Teams' Current Actual RPI Ranks and Other Data
The following table for teams and the next one for conferences show actual RPI ranks and other data based on the results of games played through Sunday, September 15. This corresponds with the NCAA's first publication of ratings and ranks for the season, through September 15. You will have to scroll to the right to see the entire table.
Conferences' Current Actual RPI Ranks and Other Data
Predicted Team RPI and Balanced RPI Ranks, Plus RPI and Balanced RPI Strength of Schedule Contributor Ranks
The following table for teams and the next one for conferences show predicted ranks based on the actual results of games played through September 15 and predicted results of games not yet played. In predicting results of games not yet played, this week I have changed from using teams' pre-season assigned ratings as the basis for prediction to using teams' actual current NCAA RPI ratings. Using teams' current RPI ratings as the basis for predicting the results of future games, at this stage of the season, is highly speculative, perhaps even more speculative than using teams' pre-season assigned ratings. Because of that, I do not take the predictions very seriously.
Predicted Conference RPI and Balanced RPI Ranks, Plus RPI Strength of Schedule Contributor Ranks
Predicted NCAA Tournament Automatic Qualifiers, Disqualified Teams, and At Large Selection Status, All for the Top 57 Teams
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