Below are simulated end-of-season Adjusted RPI ranks using the actual results of games played through Sunday, October 2 and simulated results of games not yet played. The simulated results of games not yet played are based on the current actual ARPI ratings of the opposing teams as adjusted for home field advantage.
Since I have had questions in prior weeks about why Florida State is so far down on the list -- it is at #28 this week -- here is a brief explanation of why:
Its current RPI rating has it ranked #16. The reason its current rating is not better is that it has had a relatively weak strength of schedule so far, as the RPI measures strength of schedule. When I plug in ratings for all of the teams and apply them to future games, Florida State ends up with an end-of-season record of 9-4-4. Although some, perhaps many, believe they will end with a better record, 9-4-4 is what their current RPI says. With that record and the records of the other teams around them, combined with their strengths of shedule, Florida State ends up at #28. If those who doubt this are right and Florida State does better than current ratings say they will do, then when they do that the system will adjust and will have them ending up with a better ending rank.
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