Monday, October 3, 2022

CURRENT ACTUAL RPI RATINGS FOR GAMES THROUGH OCTOBER 2

Use the following link for access to an Excel workbook with actual RPI ratings and ranks and other data for teams based on games through October 2, 2022: 2022 RPI Report 10.2.22.  On the left of the RPI Report sheet, there are five color coded columns.  These columns are based on the seasons from 2007 to the present (excluding the 2020 Covid-constrained season).  They show the rank ranges as of this stage of the season from which #1 through #4 seeds have come.  They also show the at large bubble range and that teams ranked #10 or better as of this stage of the season always have gotten at large selections.

Strictly from a nerdy statistics perspective, I saw something interesting today.  The NCAA has Western Kentucky with an Adjusted RPI rating 0.0016 better than I do -- notwithstanding that our ratings match for every other team.  After some detective work, I saw that the NCAA has both Kansas and Kentucky ranked as #80 in the unadjusted RPI.  Western Kentucky has a home win against Kentucky.  This means that it receives an 0.0016 bonus for that win, if Kentucky is ranked #80.  I, on the other hand, have Kentucky ranked #81 in the URPI, which means no bonus for Western Kentucky because the bonus tiers are for wins or ties versus teams ranked #1 through #40 and #41 through #80.  Why do the NCAA and I have that difference?  The NCAA rounds its ratings to five decimal places, at least for purposes of rankings, which gives Kansas and Kentucky identical ratings so that both fill the #80 slot.  I, on the other hand, round off at far more decimal places, which give Kansas a very slightly better rating than Kentucky and thus has Kentucky ranked #81.  The interesting thing to the statistics nerd in me is to establish that the NCAA rounds to five decimal places for ranking purposes.  I suspect, but do not know, that they do this for all calculation purposes.

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