NCAA Tournament Bracket Formation: Most Important Factors for #4 Seeds

Continuing with my reports on the most important factors in the Women's Soccer Committee's decision-making on NCAA Tournament at large selections and seeds, here is a table showing the most important factors in deciding that "yes," a team gets a #4 seed:

Factor	Yes 4 Seed
ARPI Rating and Top 60 CO	9
ANCRPI Rating and CO Score	8
ARPI Rating and Top 60 CO Rank	7
ARPI Rank and ANCRPI Rank	7
ANCRPI Rating and Last 8 Games (Poor Results)	5
CO Score and Last 8 Games (Poor Results)	5
ARPI Rank and Top 60 CO Score	5
ARPI	4
ARPI Rating and ANCRPI Rating	4
ARPI Rank and Top 60 CO Rank	4
ANCRPI Rank and CO Rank	4
ANCRPI Rating and CO Rank	4
CO Rank and Last 8 Games (Poor Results)	4
Conference Rank and CO Score	3
ANCRPI Rank and CO Score	3
ARPI Rank and ANCRPI Rating	3
ARPI Rating and ANCRPI Rank	2
ARPI Rank and Conference Rank	2
ARPI Rating and Last 8 Games (Poor Results)	2
Conference ARPI and HTH Score	2
CO Score and CO Rank	2
ANCRPI Rating and Conference Standing	2
Top 60 CO Score	2
Top 60 CO Rank	2
Conference Standing and Top 60 CO Rank	2
ANCRPI Rank and Conference Standing	2

This table shows the 26 most important factors in determining which teams get #2 seeds.  Here, various pairings of the ARPI, Top 60 Common Opponent results, and the Adjusted Non-Conference ARPI are the most important factors.  Looking through the list, this is an area in which the ANCRPI is at its most relevant.  Since the NCAA considers the ANCRPI to be more indicative of conference strength than the ARPI (if nevertheless less accurate), it may be that the ANCRPI comes into play here as one way of including conference strength in the consideration of which teams should receive at least some seed.

Also of note here, the factor patterns are more able to identify teams to receive #4 seeds than they are #3s.  As mentioned in my post on the #3 seeds, this is consistent with my personal observations that the Committee appears to have trouble distinguishing which teams should receive #3 seeds as compared to #4s.

The following table shows the 25 most important factors in determining which teams do not get #4 seeds:

Factor	No 4 Seed
ARPI Rating and Top 60 CO Rank	367
ARPI Rating and Top 50 Results Rank	357
ARPI Rating	339
ARPI Rank and Rating	339
ARPI Rank	337
ARPI Rating and Top 50 Results Score	324
ARPI Rating and ANCRPI Rank	316
ARPI Rating and Top 60 CO	311
ARPI Rank and Top 50 Results Rank	273
ARPI Rating and Top 60 HTH	267
ARPI Rank and Top 60 CO Rank	260
ARPI Rating and Last 8 Games (Poor Results)	260
Top 50 Results Rank and CO Rank	258
HTH Score and Last 8 Games (Poor Results)	247
CO Score and Last 8 Games (Poor Results)	232
ARPI Rating and Conference Rank	231
ARPI Rank and ANCRPI Rank	223
ARPI Rank and Conference Standing	223
ANCRPI Rating and HTH Score	217
ANCRPI Rank and CO Score	216
Top 50 Results Score and Last 8 Games (Poor Results)	211
ANCRPI Rank and CO Rank	204
Top 50 Results Score and CO Rank	202
ANCRPI Rating and CO Score	201
ARPI Rating and Conference Standing	184

Here, ARPI Rating paired with Top 60 Common Opponents Rank is the most powerful factor, with ARPI Rating paired with Top 50 Results Rank being the next most powerful factor.  ARPI Rating and Rank alone as primary factors are near the top of the list.  By itself, ARPI Rank excludes all teams ranked #27 or poorer from receiving #4 seeds.  And clearly, the ARPI is the most important factor in determining #4 seeds, when paired with other factors.