There are some things to bear in mind, which make the simulations at this stage of the season very speculative and likely to have some odd results:
- The RPI formula has three main elements. Element 1 is a team's winning percentage. Element 2 is the average of its opponents' winning percentages. Element 3 is the average of its opponents' opponents' winning percentages. The design of the formula is such that the effective weights of these three elements, at the end of the season, are roughly 50% winning percentage, 40% opponents' winning percentages, and 10% opponents' opponents' winning percentages. If you combine Elements 2 and 3, you get strength of schedule, so the end-of-season effective weights are roughly 50% winning percentage and 50% strength of schedule.
- Early in the season, however, the effective weights are different and emphasize strength of schedule more than winning percentage. Thus for teams' ratings based on games played through Sunday, September 10, the effective weights are 37% winning percentage, 50% opponents' winning percentages, and 13% opponents' opponents' winning percentages -- in other words, 37% winning percentage and 63% strength of schedule. Over the course of the season, these numbers will migrate towards the desired 50-50 weights.
- Teams have not yet played enough games to create all of the cross connections needed among teams in order for the rating system to be able to rate them all together in a single system. In statistical lingo, there is not yet enough "correspondence" among the teams. The correspondence among teams will improve as the season progresses. This will result in significant movement of teams in the rankings.
- Hurricanes Harvey and Irma may have a significant effect on this year's rankings, due to the need for teams to cancel games. A prime example of this is Florida State. Florida State has played what's so far turned out to be a weak non-conference schedule, with its opponents having current records (excluding their result against Florida State, which is what the RPI does in computing its strength of schedule) as follows: UNC Greensboro 2-4-1, South Alabama 2-3-1, Samford 2-4-1, Alabama 6-1-0, and Kentucky 4-3-0. And, tomorrow it will have a game against Troy 2-4-2, which will be its last non-conference opponent. Florida State's record against the teams it's played is 4-1. Combined with its strength of schedule, and with the current RPI's effective weights of winning percentage as compared to strength of schedule, this puts Florida State at #56 in the ARPI rankings. Florida State was scheduled to play Florida, at Florida, last Friday, but lost the game to Hurricane Irma and it appears likely the game will not be re-scheduled. If they had played Florida and lost, their current ranking would be #59; if they tied it would be #53; and if they won it would be #41. Thus not being able to play that game will hurt Florida State on the strength of schedule side of the RPI equation. In addition, my studies have indicated that the Women's Soccer Committee, in making NCAA Tournament decisions, places a high value on good results -- wins or ties -- against highly ranked teams. At present, with the loss of the Florida game, none of Florida State's non-conference opponents are in the Top 50 teams, so it currently has no good results in its record. What this means for Florida State -- and for teams in a similar position that have had to cancel games against their good quality non-conference opponents -- is that there will be a greater than usual need for it to do well in its conference games, including gaining some high quality wins and/or ties.
With those thoughts in mind, here are the simulated end-of-season (including conference tournaments) ARPI ranks of the teams:
| Team | ARPI Rank | Conference |
| SouthCarolinaU | 1 | SEC |
| Stanford | 2 | PacTwelve |
| TexasU | 3 | BigTwelve |
| Princeton | 4 | Ivy |
| LSU | 5 | SEC |
| Memphis | 6 | American |
| Rutgers | 7 | BigTen |
| UCF | 8 | American |
| TexasA&M | 9 | SEC |
| WakeForest | 10 | ACC |
| UCLA | 11 | PacTwelve |
| Clemson | 12 | ACC |
| WisconsinU | 13 | BigTen |
| MurrayState | 14 | OhioValley |
| Duke | 15 | ACC |
| Marquette | 16 | BigEast |
| FloridaU | 17 | SEC |
| NCState | 18 | ACC |
| FloridaGulfCoast | 19 | AtlanticSun |
| Rice | 20 | ConferenceUSA |
| WashingtonU | 21 | PacTwelve |
| MississippiU | 22 | SEC |
| KansasU | 23 | BigTwelve |
| TennesseeU | 24 | SEC |
| Purdue | 25 | BigTen |
| LoyolaMarymount | 26 | WestCoast |
| AlabamaU | 27 | SEC |
| MichiganU | 28 | BigTen |
| WashingtonState | 29 | PacTwelve |
| WestVirginiaU | 30 | BigTwelve |
| Butler | 31 | BigEast |
| UALR | 32 | SunBelt |
| VirginiaTech | 33 | ACC |
| Drexel | 34 | Colonial |
| OhioState | 35 | BigTen |
| VirginiaU | 36 | ACC |
| CollegeofCharleston | 37 | Colonial |
| MississippiState | 38 | SEC |
| LongBeachState | 39 | BigWest |
| Yale | 40 | Ivy |
| StJosephs | 41 | AtlanticTen |
| CaliforniaU | 42 | PacTwelve |
| Cincinnati | 43 | American |
| SMU | 44 | American |
| Pepperdine | 45 | WestCoast |
| UNLV | 46 | MountainWest |
| AustinPeay | 47 | OhioValley |
| Monmouth | 48 | MetroAtlantic |
| StLouis | 49 | AtlanticTen |
| KennesawState | 50 | AtlanticSun |
| UAB | 51 | ConferenceUSA |
| ColoradoU | 52 | PacTwelve |
| NorthCarolinaU | 53 | ACC |
| GeorgiaU | 54 | SEC |
| FresnoState | 55 | MountainWest |
| FloridaState | 56 | ACC |
| Milwaukee | 57 | Horizon |
| Radford | 58 | BigSouth |
| Lamar | 59 | Southland |
| SacramentoState | 60 | BigSky |
| Bryant | 61 | Northeast |
| Northeastern | 62 | Colonial |
| PennState | 63 | BigTen |
| Georgetown | 64 | BigEast |
| KentState | 65 | MidAmerican |
| Harvard | 66 | Ivy |
| SouthFlorida | 67 | American |
| NewHampshireU | 68 | AmericaEast |
| UNCAsheville | 69 | BigSouth |
| Charlotte | 70 | ConferenceUSA |
| IndianaU | 71 | BigTen |
| Valparaiso | 72 | MissouriValley |
| CoastalCarolina | 73 | SunBelt |
| NorthFlorida | 74 | AtlanticSun |
| CalStateNorthridge | 75 | BigWest |
| CalStateFullerton | 76 | BigWest |
| UtahU | 77 | PacTwelve |
| CentralMichigan | 78 | MidAmerican |
| VCU | 79 | AtlanticTen |
| SantaClara | 80 | WestCoast |
| Belmont | 81 | OhioValley |
| Samford | 82 | Southern |
| MichiganState | 83 | BigTen |
| Houston | 84 | American |
| MontanaU | 85 | BigSky |
| UtahState | 86 | MountainWest |
| Colgate | 87 | Patriot |
| Navy | 88 | Patriot |
| Villanova | 89 | BigEast |
| Dartmouth | 90 | Ivy |
| TennesseeTech | 91 | OhioValley |
| OklahomaState | 92 | BigTwelve |
| LouisianaTech | 93 | ConferenceUSA |
| NotreDame | 94 | ACC |
| Quinnipiac | 95 | MetroAtlantic |
| Liberty | 96 | BigSouth |
| BYU | 97 | WestCoast |
| LoyolaChicago | 98 | MissouriValley |
| Baylor | 99 | BigTwelve |
| William&Mary | 100 | Colonial |
| IndianaState | 101 | MissouriValley |
| NorthernColorado | 102 | BigSky |
| Vanderbilt | 103 | SEC |
| Louisville | 104 | ACC |
| NebraskaU | 105 | BigTen |
| Stetson | 106 | AtlanticSun |
| Syracuse | 107 | ACC |
| DelawareU | 108 | Colonial |
| Gonzaga | 109 | WestCoast |
| Columbia | 110 | Ivy |
| GeorgiaSouthern | 111 | SunBelt |
| MarylandU | 112 | BigTen |
| RhodeIslandU | 113 | AtlanticTen |
| TexasRGV | 114 | WAC |
| NorthwesternU | 115 | BigTen |
| ConnecticutU | 116 | American |
| ColoradoCollege | 117 | MountainWest |
| Seattle | 118 | WAC |
| SouthAlabama | 119 | SunBelt |
| LaSalle | 120 | AtlanticTen |
| StephenFAustin | 121 | Southland |
| TexasCorpusChristi | 122 | Southland |
| SamHoustonState | 123 | Southland |
| BostonCollege | 124 | ACC |
| BowlingGreen | 125 | MidAmerican |
| KentuckyU | 126 | SEC |
| WesternMichigan | 127 | MidAmerican |
| Binghamton | 128 | AmericaEast |
| ArizonaU | 129 | PacTwelve |
| DePaul | 130 | BigEast |
| OldDominion | 131 | ConferenceUSA |
| ArizonaState | 132 | PacTwelve |
| ClevelandState | 133 | Horizon |
| MississippiValley | 134 | Southwestern |
| Auburn | 135 | SEC |
| NorthernArizona | 136 | BigSky |
| Lehigh | 137 | Patriot |
| VermontU | 138 | AmericaEast |
| Hofstra | 139 | Colonial |
| Furman | 140 | Southern |
| TCU | 141 | BigTwelve |
| Winthrop | 142 | BigSouth |
| UCSantaBarbara | 143 | BigWest |
| StJohns | 144 | BigEast |
| SouthernMississippi | 145 | ConferenceUSA |
| Brown | 146 | Ivy |
| MissouriState | 147 | MissouriValley |
| NorthernKentucky | 148 | Horizon |
| Niagara | 149 | MetroAtlantic |
| UNCGreensboro | 150 | Southern |
| UNI | 151 | MissouriValley |
| GeorgeWashington | 152 | AtlanticTen |
| SouthernCalifornia | 153 | PacTwelve |
| IUPUI | 154 | Horizon |
| NorthernIllinois | 155 | MidAmerican |
| TexasTech | 156 | BigTwelve |
| EastCarolina | 157 | American |
| WesternKentucky | 158 | ConferenceUSA |
| OregonU | 159 | PacTwelve |
| Elon | 160 | Colonial |
| UMassLowell | 161 | AmericaEast |
| FloridaAtlantic | 162 | ConferenceUSA |
| EastTennesseeState | 163 | Southern |
| UCIrvine | 164 | BigWest |
| BostonU | 165 | Patriot |
| EasternIllinois | 166 | OhioValley |
| MiamiFL | 167 | ACC |
| NorthTexas | 168 | ConferenceUSA |
| CentralConnecticut | 169 | Northeast |
| MinnesotaU | 170 | BigTen |
| SoutheastMissouriState | 171 | OhioValley |
| ArkansasState | 172 | SunBelt |
| Fairfield | 173 | MetroAtlantic |
| Xavier | 174 | BigEast |
| IowaU | 175 | BigTen |
| SanDiegoState | 176 | MountainWest |
| GeorgeMason | 177 | AtlanticTen |
| OregonState | 178 | PacTwelve |
| Mercer | 179 | Southern |
| Troy | 180 | SunBelt |
| Pacific | 181 | WestCoast |
| WyomingU | 182 | MountainWest |
| Drake | 183 | MissouriValley |
| AirForce | 184 | MountainWest |
| NewMexicoState | 185 | WAC |
| EasternMichigan | 186 | MidAmerican |
| SacredHeart | 187 | Northeast |
| EasternWashington | 188 | BigSky |
| ArkansasU | 189 | SEC |
| Bucknell | 190 | Patriot |
| WrightState | 191 | Horizon |
| McNeeseState | 192 | Southland |
| Pittsburgh | 193 | ACC |
| HighPoint | 194 | BigSouth |
| CharlestonSouthern | 195 | BigSouth |
| CalStateBakersfield | 196 | WAC |
| JacksonvilleState | 197 | OhioValley |
| RobertMorris | 198 | Northeast |
| AlabamaState | 199 | Southwestern |
| UNCWilmington | 200 | Colonial |
| Cornell | 201 | Ivy |
| TexasSouthern | 202 | Southwestern |
| StMarys | 203 | WestCoast |
| Providence | 204 | BigEast |
| Duquesne | 205 | AtlanticTen |
| Siena | 206 | MetroAtlantic |
| Lipscomb | 207 | AtlanticSun |
| IllinoisState | 208 | MissouriValley |
| SanFrancisco | 209 | WestCoast |
| Dayton | 210 | AtlanticTen |
| IncarnateWord | 211 | Southland |
| OhioU | 212 | MidAmerican |
| MissouriU | 213 | SEC |
| OklahomaU | 214 | BigTwelve |
| Canisius | 215 | MetroAtlantic |
| Tulsa | 216 | American |
| AlcornState | 217 | Southwestern |
| FIU | 218 | ConferenceUSA |
| Denver | 219 | Summit |
| Longwood | 220 | BigSouth |
| GeorgiaState | 221 | SunBelt |
| JacksonvilleU | 222 | AtlanticSun |
| StonyBrook | 223 | AmericaEast |
| Toledo | 224 | MidAmerican |
| Presbyterian | 225 | BigSouth |
| TexasState | 226 | SunBelt |
| LouisianaLafayette | 227 | SunBelt |
| KansasState | 228 | BigTwelve |
| IdahoU | 229 | BigSky |
| MiddleTennessee | 230 | ConferenceUSA |
| Lafayette | 231 | Patriot |
| EasternKentucky | 232 | OhioValley |
| ColoradoState | 233 | MountainWest |
| Temple | 234 | American |
| WesternCarolina | 235 | Southern |
| UNOmaha | 236 | Summit |
| JamesMadison | 237 | Colonial |
| SanJoseState | 238 | MountainWest |
| NewMexicoU | 239 | MountainWest |
| NorthwesternState | 240 | Southland |
| SanDiegoU | 241 | WestCoast |
| UCDavis | 242 | BigWest |
| Army | 243 | Patriot |
| Towson | 244 | Colonial |
| Oakland | 245 | Horizon |
| UtahValley | 246 | WAC |
| CalPoly | 247 | BigWest |
| CentralArkansas | 248 | Southland |
| Marist | 249 | MetroAtlantic |
| IllinoisU | 250 | BigTen |
| StFrancis | 251 | Northeast |
| Wofford | 252 | Southern |
| UTSA | 253 | ConferenceUSA |
| PennsylvaniaU | 254 | Ivy |
| SIUEdwardsville | 255 | OhioValley |
| MassachusettsU | 256 | AtlanticTen |
| NJIT | 257 | AtlanticSun |
| Howard | 258 | Southwestern |
| SouthDakotaState | 259 | Summit |
| Chattanooga | 260 | Southern |
| BoiseState | 261 | MountainWest |
| Buffalo | 262 | MidAmerican |
| HawaiiU | 263 | BigWest |
| Albany | 264 | AmericaEast |
| HoustonBaptist | 265 | Southland |
| Richmond | 266 | AtlanticTen |
| Akron | 267 | MidAmerican |
| SouthernUtah | 268 | BigSky |
| Morehead | 269 | OhioValley |
| IowaState | 270 | BigTwelve |
| MaineU | 271 | AmericaEast |
| PortlandU | 272 | WestCoast |
| FairleighDickinson | 273 | Northeast |
| Wagner | 274 | Northeast |
| Campbell | 275 | BigSouth |
| SouthDakotaU | 276 | Summit |
| Manhattan | 277 | MetroAtlantic |
| StBonaventure | 278 | AtlanticTen |
| Detroit | 279 | Horizon |
| UCRiverside | 280 | BigWest |
| Davidson | 281 | AtlanticTen |
| Creighton | 282 | BigEast |
| American | 283 | Patriot |
| Evansville | 284 | MissouriValley |
| MountStMary | 285 | Northeast |
| SetonHall | 286 | BigEast |
| Marshall | 287 | ConferenceUSA |
| GrandCanyon | 288 | WAC |
| Grambling | 289 | Southwestern |
| WeberState | 290 | BigSky |
| UTEP | 291 | ConferenceUSA |
| UMBC | 292 | AmericaEast |
| USCUpstate | 293 | AtlanticSun |
| YoungstownState | 294 | Horizon |
| PrairieViewA&M | 295 | Southwestern |
| TennesseeMartin | 296 | OhioValley |
| Fordham | 297 | AtlanticTen |
| ArkansasPineBluff | 298 | Southwestern |
| GardnerWebb | 299 | BigSouth |
| PortlandState | 300 | BigSky |
| Citadel | 301 | Southern |
| BallState | 302 | MidAmerican |
| AppalachianState | 303 | SunBelt |
| SouthCarolinaState | 304 | Independent |
| LongIsland | 305 | Northeast |
| NichollsState | 306 | Southland |
| IllinoisChicago | 307 | Horizon |
| NorthDakotaU | 308 | BigSky |
| Rider | 309 | MetroAtlantic |
| AbileneChristian | 310 | Southland |
| LoyolaMD | 311 | Patriot |
| OralRoberts | 312 | Summit |
| UMKC | 313 | WAC |
| NevadaU | 314 | MountainWest |
| LouisianaMonroe | 315 | SunBelt |
| HolyCross | 316 | Patriot |
| MiamiOH | 317 | MidAmerican |
| VMI | 318 | Southern |
| GreenBay | 319 | Horizon |
| Iona | 320 | MetroAtlantic |
| SELouisiana | 321 | Southland |
| IdahoState | 322 | BigSky |
| WesternIllinois | 323 | Summit |
| SouthernU | 324 | Southwestern |
| Hartford | 325 | AmericaEast |
| StPeters | 326 | MetroAtlantic |
| IPFW | 327 | Summit |
| ChicagoState | 328 | WAC |
| NorthDakotaState | 329 | Summit |
| AlabamaA&M | 330 | Southwestern |
| JacksonState | 331 | Southwestern |
| DelawareState | 332 | Independent |
| Hampton | 333 | Independent |
