2018 CONFERENCE STANDINGS AND CONFERENCE TOURNAMENTS 11.4.2018 (ACTUAL FINAL)

Here are the final conference regular season standings and conference tournament results.  In cases where teams are tied on points in the conference standings, my system shows the teams splitting the points for the positions they occupy.  For example, Clemson and Louisville tied for the 5 and 6 positions in the ACC with 18 points each, so my system assigns them each a 5.5 standing position.  Although each conference has a tiebreak system for conference tournament seeding purposes, the assigned regular season positions do not take those tiebreaks into account.  On the other hand, the conference tournaments matchups do take the tiebreaks into account and are the actual matchups.  The conference tournament champions are in bold face.

There were 164 conference tournament games.  The better seeded team won 106, which is 64.6%, of the games.  The poorer seeded team won 35.4%.  Given that the better seeded teams often had home field advantage, it appears that teams' relative seeds mean a little, but not a lot, in terms of likely game outcomes.

There were 23, which is about 14%, of games that went to penalty kicks.  This is a higher percentage than occurs over the course of the entire season.  Of these games, the better seeded team won 12 and the poorer seeded team won 11.  The team with the better RPI won 10 and the team with the poorer RPI won 13.  It thus appears that if a game goes to PKs, it's pretty much a coin flip as to who will win.

CONFERENCE STANDINGS					CONFERENCE TOURNAMENTS
Team	Conference	Conference Points	Conference Standing		ACC
NorthCarolinaU	ACC	30	1		NorthCarolinaU	VirginiaTech
Duke	ACC	25	2		Duke	FloridaState
VirginiaU	ACC	21	3		VirginiaU	Louisville
BostonCollege	ACC	19	4		BostonCollege	Clemson
Clemson	ACC	18	5.5
Louisville	ACC	18	5.5		NorthCarolinaU	Clemson
FloridaState	ACC	16	7		FloridaState	VirginiaU
VirginiaTech	ACC	15	8
NotreDame	ACC	12	9.5		NorthCarolinaU	FloridaState
WakeForest	ACC	12	9.5
NCState	ACC	11	11
MiamiFL	ACC	10	12
Pittsburgh	ACC	0	13.5
Syracuse	ACC	0	13.5		AMERICA EAST
StonyBrook	AmericaEast	19	1.5		Albany	NewHampshireU
Hartford	AmericaEast	19	1.5		UMassLowell	VermontU
Albany	AmericaEast	16	3
UMassLowell	AmericaEast	13	4.5		Hartford	Albany
VermontU	AmericaEast	13	4.5		StonyBrook	UMassLowell
NewHampshireU	AmericaEast	10	6
Binghamton	AmericaEast	6	7.5		Albany	UMassLowell
MaineU	AmericaEast	6	7.5
UMBC	AmericaEast	3	9
SouthFlorida	American	24	1		AMERICAN
Memphis	American	21	2		UCF	Temple
UCF	American	18	3		EastCarolina	SMU
EastCarolina	American	15	4.5
SMU	American	15	4.5		Memphis	UCF
Temple	American	10	6.5		SouthFlorida	EastCarolina
Houston	American	10	6.5
Tulsa	American	9	8		Memphis	SouthFlorida
ConnecticutU	American	6	9
Cincinnati	American	5	10
Lipscomb	AtlanticSun	21	1		ATLANTIC SUN
NJIT	AtlanticSun	16	2		KennesawState	NorthAlabama
KennesawState	AtlanticSun	15	4		FloridaGulfCoast	Liberty
FloridaGulfCoast	AtlanticSun	15	4
Liberty	AtlanticSun	15	4		NJIT	NorthAlabama
NorthAlabama	AtlanticSun	10	6		Lipscomb	FloridaGulfCoast
NorthFlorida	AtlanticSun	7	7
Stetson	AtlanticSun	4	8		NorthAlabama	Lipscomb
JacksonvilleU	AtlanticSun	3	9
StLouis	AtlanticTen	30	1		ATLANTIC TEN
VCU	AtlanticTen	27	2		StLouis	Dayton
StJosephs	AtlanticTen	24	3.5		VCU	GeorgeWashington
GeorgeMason	AtlanticTen	24	3.5		StJosephs	Fordham
MassachusettsU	AtlanticTen	19	5.5		GeorgeMason	MassachusettsU
Fordham	AtlanticTen	19	5.5
GeorgeWashington	AtlanticTen	18	7		StLouis	GeorgeMason
Dayton	AtlanticTen	13	8		VCU	StJosephs
LaSalle	AtlanticTen	9	9
Duquesne	AtlanticTen	8	10		StLouis	VCU
Richmond	AtlanticTen	7	11
StBonaventure	AtlanticTen	6	12
Davidson	AtlanticTen	1	13.5
RhodeIslandU	AtlanticTen	1	13.5
Georgetown	BigEast	25	1		BIG EAST
Butler	BigEast	19	2		StJohns	Providence
StJohns	BigEast	16	3		Xavier	DePaul
Xavier	BigEast	14	5
DePaul	BigEast	14	5		Butler	Providence
Providence	BigEast	14	5		Georgetown	Xavier
Creighton	BigEast	10	7
Villanova	BigEast	9	8		Butler	Georgetown
Marquette	BigEast	8	9
SetonHall	BigEast	0	10
WeberState	BigSky	22	1		BIG SKY
IdahoU	BigSky	20	2		NorthernColorado	EasternWashington
NorthernColorado	BigSky	19	3		NorthernArizona	MontanaU
NorthernArizona	BigSky	18	4
MontanaU	BigSky	13	5.5		IdahoU	NorthernColorado
EasternWashington	BigSky	13	5.5		WeberState	MontanaU
PortlandState	BigSky	10	7
SacramentoState	BigSky	6	8		NorthernColorado	MontanaU
SouthernUtah	BigSky	4	9
IdahoState	BigSky	3	10
Radford	BigSouth	27	1		BIG SOUTH
GardnerWebb	BigSouth	23	2		Radford	HighPoint
Longwood	BigSouth	20	3		GardnerWebb	Winthrop
Campbell	BigSouth	16	4.5		Longwood	USCUpstate
CharlestonSouthern	BigSouth	16	4.5		Campbell	CharlestonSouthern
USCUpstate	BigSouth	15	6
Winthrop	BigSouth	12	7.5		Radford	Campbell
HighPoint	BigSouth	12	7.5		GardnerWebb	USCUpstate
Presbyterian	BigSouth	9	9
UNCAsheville	BigSouth	8	10		Radford	GardnerWebb
Hampton	BigSouth	1	11
PennState	BigTen	27	1		BIG TEN
Rutgers	BigTen	24	2		PennState	MichiganU
OhioState	BigTen	21	3.5		Rutgers	MinnesotaU
WisconsinU	BigTen	21	3.5		OhioState	NebraskaU
IllinoisU	BigTen	18	5.5		WisconsinU	IllinoisU
NebraskaU	BigTen	18	5.5
MinnesotaU	BigTen	16	7.5		PennState	IllinoisU
MichiganU	BigTen	16	7.5		MinnesotaU	NebraskaU
NorthwesternU	BigTen	15	9
IowaU	BigTen	14	10		PennState	MinnesotaU
IndianaU	BigTen	12	11
MarylandU	BigTen	8	12
Purdue	BigTen	6	13
MichiganState	BigTen	2	14
Baylor	BigTwelve	24	1		BIG TWELVE
WestVirginiaU	BigTwelve	21	2		Baylor	IowaState
TexasU	BigTwelve	16	4		WestVirginiaU	OklahomaU
TCU	BigTwelve	16	4		TexasU	KansasU
TexasTech	BigTwelve	16	4		TCU	TexasTech
KansasU	BigTwelve	15	6
OklahomaU	BigTwelve	10	7		Baylor	TexasTech
IowaState	BigTwelve	7	8.5		WestVirginiaU	TexasU
OklahomaState	BigTwelve	7	8.5
KansasState	BigTwelve	0	10		Baylor	WestVirginiaU
LongBeachState	BigWest	17	1
UCSantaBarbara	BigWest	16	2		BIG WEST
UCIrvine	BigWest	15	3		LongBeachState	UCDavis
UCDavis	BigWest	14	4		UCSantaBarbara	UCIrvine
HawaiiU	BigWest	12	5
CalPoly	BigWest	8	6.5		LongBeachState	UCSantaBarbara
UCRiverside	BigWest	8	6.5
CalStateNorthridge	BigWest	6	8
CalStateFullerton	BigWest	5	9
JamesMadison	Colonial	22	1		COLONIAL
Northeastern	Colonial	21	2		Hofstra	DelawareU
Hofstra	Colonial	19	3		CollegeofCharleston	Drexel
CollegeofCharleston	Colonial	16	4
Drexel	Colonial	13	5		Northeastern	Hofstra
DelawareU	Colonial	10	7		JamesMadison	CollegeofCharleston
UNCWilmington	Colonial	10	7
William&Mary	Colonial	10	7		Hofstra	JamesMadison
Towson	Colonial	5	9
Elon	Colonial	4	10
NorthTexas	ConferenceUSA	25	1.5		CONFERENCE USA
UTSA	ConferenceUSA	8	13		NorthTexas	Rice
UAB	ConferenceUSA	18	3		FloridaAtlantic	MiddleTennessee
LouisianaTech	ConferenceUSA	17	4.5		UAB	SouthernMississippi
OldDominion	ConferenceUSA	17	4.5		LouisianaTech	OldDominion
SouthernMississippi	ConferenceUSA	16	7
MiddleTennessee	ConferenceUSA	16	7		NorthTexas	LouisianaTech
Rice	ConferenceUSA	16	7		FloridaAtlantic	SouthernMississippi
Charlotte	ConferenceUSA	12	9
WesternKentucky	ConferenceUSA	11	10		NorthTexas	SouthernMississippi
Marshall	ConferenceUSA	10	11
UTEP	ConferenceUSA	9	12
UTSA	ConferenceUSA	8	13
FIU	ConferenceUSA	1	14
Milwaukee	Horizon	27	1		HORIZON
ClevelandState	Horizon	19	2.5		NorthernKentucky	Oakland
NorthernKentucky	Horizon	19	2.5		WrightState	Detroit
WrightState	Horizon	16	4
Detroit	Horizon	13	5		ClevelandState	Detroit
Oakland	Horizon	12	6		Milwaukee	Oakland
IUPUI	Horizon	10	7
IllinoisChicago	Horizon	9	8		ClevelandState	Milwaukee
GreenBay	Horizon	2	9.5
YoungstownState	Horizon	2	9.5
DelawareState	Independent	1	1.5
SouthCarolinaState	Independent	1	1.5
Brown	Ivy	9	6		NO TOURNAMENT
Columbia	Ivy	12	5
Cornell	Ivy	0	8
Dartmouth	Ivy	13	3.5
Harvard	Ivy	13	3.5
PennsylvaniaU	Ivy	16	1.5
Princeton	Ivy	16	1.5
Yale	Ivy	3	7
Monmouth	MetroAtlantic	27	1		METRO ATLANTIC
Marist	MetroAtlantic	22	2		Siena	Quinnipiac
Siena	MetroAtlantic	20	3		Niagara	Rider
Niagara	MetroAtlantic	17	4
Rider	MetroAtlantic	15	5		Marist	Siena
Quinnipiac	MetroAtlantic	13	6		Monmouth	Niagara
StPeters	MetroAtlantic	10	7
Manhattan	MetroAtlantic	9	8		Siena	Monmouth
Fairfield	MetroAtlantic	8	9
Canisius	MetroAtlantic	7	10
Iona	MetroAtlantic	5	11
BowlingGreen	MidAmerican	30	1		MID AMERICAN
BallState	MidAmerican	25	2		BowlingGreen	EasternMichigan
WesternMichigan	MidAmerican	21	3		BallState	Buffalo
OhioU	MidAmerican	20	4		WesternMichigan	Akron
KentState	MidAmerican	19	5		OhioU	KentState
Akron	MidAmerican	16	6
Buffalo	MidAmerican	15	8		BowlingGreen	OhioU
EasternMichigan	MidAmerican	15	8		BallState	WesternMichigan
Toledo	MidAmerican	13	10
CentralMichigan	MidAmerican	15	8		BowlingGreen	BallState
MiamiOH	MidAmerican	3	11.5
NorthernIllinois	MidAmerican	3	11.5
LoyolaChicago	MissouriValley	18	1		MISSOURI VALLEY
Drake	MissouriValley	16	2		UNI	Evansville
UNI	MissouriValley	12	3.5		IllinoisState	MissouriState
IllinoisState	MissouriValley	12	3.5
MissouriState	MissouriValley	8	5		Drake	Evansville
Evansville	MissouriValley	7	6.5		LoyolaChicago	IllinoisState
Valparaiso	MissouriValley	7	6.5
IndianaState	MissouriValley	1	8		Drake	LoyolaChicago
BoiseState	MountainWest	23	2
WyomingU	MountainWest	23	2		MOUNTAIN WEST
NewMexicoU	MountainWest	23	2		NewMexicoU	ColoradoCollege
SanJoseState	MountainWest	21	4		SanJoseState	FresnoState
FresnoState	MountainWest	18	5
ColoradoCollege	MountainWest	17	6.5		WyomingU	NewMexicoU
UNLV	MountainWest	17	6.5		BoiseState	SanJoseState
SanDiegoState	MountainWest	15	8
UtahState	MountainWest	8	10		NewMexicoU	SanJoseState
ColoradoState	MountainWest	11	9
AirForce	MountainWest	6	11
NevadaU	MountainWest	3	12
CentralConnecticut	Northeast	24	1		NORTHEAST
StFrancis	Northeast	16	2		CentralConnecticut	FairleighDickinson
MountStMary	Northeast	14	3		StFrancis	MountStMary
FairleighDickinson	Northeast	13	4.5
Bryant	Northeast	13	4.5		CentralConnecticut	StFrancis
RobertMorris	Northeast	12	6
SacredHeart	Northeast	9	7
Wagner	Northeast	3	8
LongIsland	Northeast	1	9
TennesseeMartin	OhioValley	28	1		OHIO VALLEY
MurrayState	OhioValley	21	2		SIUEdwardsville	Morehead
EasternIllinois	OhioValley	15	3.5		Belmont	SoutheastMissouriState
EasternKentucky	OhioValley	15	3.5
SIUEdwardsville	OhioValley	13	5.5		EasternKentucky	SIUEdwardsville
Belmont	OhioValley	13	5.5		EasternIllinois	SoutheastMissouriState
SoutheastMissouriState	OhioValley	12	7.5
Morehead	OhioValley	12	7.5		TennesseeMartin	EasternKentucky
TennesseeTech	OhioValley	11	9		MurrayState	EasternIllinois
AustinPeay	OhioValley	10	10
JacksonvilleState	OhioValley	7	11		TennesseeMartin	MurrayState
ArizonaState	PacTwelve	16	7.5
OregonState	PacTwelve	3	12		NO TOURNAMENT
OregonU	PacTwelve	9	9.5
SouthernCalifornia	PacTwelve	25	3
Stanford	PacTwelve	31	1
UCLA	PacTwelve	27	2
UtahU	PacTwelve	19	4
WashingtonState	PacTwelve	16	7.5
WashingtonU	PacTwelve	9	9.5
ArizonaU	PacTwelve	17	5.5
CaliforniaU	PacTwelve	4	11
ColoradoU	PacTwelve	17	5.5
BostonU	Patriot	23	1		PATRIOT
Colgate	Patriot	22	2		Navy	Army
Navy	Patriot	21	3		Bucknell	Lehigh
Bucknell	Patriot	15	4
Lehigh	Patriot	9	6.5		Colgate	Lehigh
Army	Patriot	9	6.5		BostonU	Army
American	Patriot	9	6.5
HolyCross	Patriot	9	6.5		Lehigh	BostonU
LoyolaMD	Patriot	7	9
Lafayette	Patriot	6	10
Vanderbilt	SEC	25	1		SEC
TennesseeU	SEC	22	2		FloridaU	Auburn
TexasA&M	SEC	19	4.5		LSU	MissouriU
ArkansasU	SEC	19	4.5
MississippiU	SEC	19	4.5		Vanderbilt	FloridaU
SouthCarolinaU	SEC	19	4.5		TennesseeU	LSU
LSU	SEC	16	7		TexasA&M	SouthCarolinaU
FloridaU	SEC	14	8		ArkansasU	MississippiU
MissouriU	SEC	10	10
Auburn	SEC	13	9		FloridaU	ArkansasU
MississippiState	SEC	8	11.5		LSU	SouthCarolinaU
AlabamaU	SEC	8	11.5
GeorgiaU	SEC	6	13		ArkansasU	LSU
KentuckyU	SEC	3	14
Samford	Southern	25	1		SOUTHERN
UNCGreensboro	Southern	21	2		Wofford	Citadel
EastTennesseeState	Southern	15	4		Chattanooga	VMI
WesternCarolina	Southern	15	4
Furman	Southern	15	4		Samford	Citadel
Mercer	Southern	14	6.5		UNCGreensboro	VMI
Chattanooga	Southern	14	6.5		EastTennesseeState	Mercer
Wofford	Southern	6	8.5		WesternCarolina	Furman
Citadel	Southern	6	8.5
VMI	Southern	1	10		Samford	Furman
CentralArkansas	Southland	30	1		UNCGreensboro	EastTennesseeState
HoustonBaptist	Southland	25	2
Lamar	Southland	23	3		Furman	UNCGreensboro
McNeeseState	Southland	22	4.5
AbileneChristian	Southland	22	4.5		SOUTHLAND
SELouisiana	Southland	15	6		CentralArkansas	NorthwesternState
StephenFAustin	Southland	12	7.5		HoustonBaptist	StephenFAustin
NorthwesternState	Southland	12	7.5		Lamar	SELouisiana
IncarnateWord	Southland	10	9		McNeeseState	AbileneChristian
TexasCorpusChristi	Southland	8	10.5
SamHoustonState	Southland	8	10.5		CentralArkansas	AbileneChristian
NichollsState	Southland	3	12		StephenFAustin	Lamar
Grambling	Southwestern	27	1
Howard	Southwestern	25	2		AbileneChristian	StephenFAustin
TexasSouthern	Southwestern	20	3
AlabamaState	Southwestern	18	4		SOUTHWESTERN
PrairieViewA&M	Southwestern	17	5		Grambling	ArkansasPineBluff
AlabamaA&M	Southwestern	15	6		Howard	SouthernU
SouthernU	Southwestern	11	7.5		TexasSouthern	AlabamaA&M
ArkansasPineBluff	Southwestern	11	7.5		AlabamaState	PrairieViewA&M
MississippiValley	Southwestern	9	9
JacksonState	Southwestern	6	10		Grambling	AlabamaState
AlcornState	Southwestern	0	11		Howard	TexasSouthern
SouthDakotaState	Summit	21	1.5
Denver	Summit	21	1.5		Grambling	Howard
NorthDakotaState	Summit	18	3
UNOmaha	Summit	13	4		SUMMIT
SouthDakotaU	Summit	12	5		SouthDakotaState	UNOmaha
NorthDakotaU	Summit	10	6		Denver	NorthDakotaState
OralRoberts	Summit	9	7
IPFW	Summit	3	8		UNOmaha	Denver
WesternIllinois	Summit	0	9
TexasState	SunBelt	26	1		SUN BELT
UALR	SunBelt	22	2		TexasState	Troy
CoastalCarolina	SunBelt	21	3		UALR	ArkansasState
AppalachianState	SunBelt	18	4		CoastalCarolina	GeorgiaState
SouthAlabama	SunBelt	16	5.5		AppalachianState	SouthAlabama
GeorgiaState	SunBelt	16	5.5
ArkansasState	SunBelt	15	7		TexasState	SouthAlabama
Troy	SunBelt	12	8		UALR	GeorgiaState
LouisianaLafayette	SunBelt	7	10
LouisianaMonroe	SunBelt	0	11		TexasState	UALR
GeorgiaSouthern	SunBelt	9	9
UMKC	WAC	21	1		WAC
Seattle	WAC	19	2.5		TexasRGV	CalStateBakersfield
TexasRGV	WAC	19	2.5		GrandCanyon	UtahValley
GrandCanyon	WAC	11	5
UtahValley	WAC	10	6.5		Seattle	TexasRGV
CalStateBakersfield	WAC	10	6.5		UMKC	UtahValley
CaliforniaBaptist	WAC	12	4
NewMexicoState	WAC	3	8		Seattle	UMKC
ChicagoState	WAC	0	9
BYU	WestCoast	24	1		NO TOURNAMENT
LoyolaMarymount	WestCoast	4	9
Pacific	WestCoast	0	10
Pepperdine	WestCoast	20	3
PortlandU	WestCoast	12	6.5
SanDiegoU	WestCoast	12	6.5
SanFrancisco	WestCoast	14	5
SantaClara	WestCoast	21	2
StMarys	WestCoast	7	8
Gonzaga	WestCoast	17	4

2018 FINAL SIMULATED NCAA TOURNAMENT BRACKET 11.4.2018

 Below is the final simulated NCAA Tournament bracket, based on the actual results of all the season's games.  At the bottom of the table are some comments.

Here is the key for the left-hand, NCAA Seed or Selection, column:

1 = #1 seed
2 = #2 seed
3 = #3 seed
4 = #4 seed
5 = unseeded Automatic Qualifier
6 = at large selection
6.5 = in pool of essentially equal teams from which remaining at large spots must be filled, but not getting a selection
7 = Top 60 team not getting an at large selection
8 = Top 60 team not eligible for at large selection due to record below 0.500

NCAA Seed or Selection	Automatic Qualifier	ARPI Rank for Formation	Team for Formation
1	AQ	1	Stanford
1	AQ	2	FloridaState
1	0	3	NorthCarolinaU
1	0	5	Baylor
2	AQ	4	Georgetown
2	AQ	6	WestVirginiaU
2	0	8	SouthernCalifornia
2	0	13	TexasU
3	0	7	UCLA
3	0	9	TennesseeU
3	0	11	Duke
3	0	12	SantaClara
4	0	10	TexasA&M
4	0	15	VirginiaU
4	0	18	SouthCarolinaU
4	0	26	ArkansasU
5	AQ	14	Memphis
5	0	24	Princeton
5	AQ	27	LSU
5	AQ	33	NorthTexas
5	AQ	37	LongBeachState
5	AQ	41	StLouis
5	AQ	42	BYU
5	AQ	44	MinnesotaU
5	AQ	53	Monmouth
5	AQ	59	Radford
5	AQ	63	Hofstra
5	AQ	64	MurrayState
5	AQ	67	AbileneChristian
5	AQ	73	UNCGreensboro
5	AQ	75	BowlingGreen
5	AQ	76	Lipscomb
5	AQ	85	Denver
5	AQ	89	Milwaukee
5	AQ	90	BostonU
5	AQ	96	Albany
5	AQ	98	CentralConnecticut
5	AQ	114	LoyolaChicago
5	AQ	117	UALR
5	AQ	128	SanJoseState
5	AQ	152	Seattle
5	AQ	166	MontanaU
5	AQ	237	Howard
6	0	16	SouthFlorida
6	0	17	MississippiState
6	0	19	TCU
6	0	20	NCState
6	0	21	Vanderbilt
6	0	22	PennState
6	0	23	KansasU
6	0	25	BostonCollege
6	0	28	Auburn
6	0	29	ArizonaU
6	0	30	Rutgers
6	0	31	WakeForest
6	0	32	WashingtonState
6	0	34	TexasTech
6	0	39	MississippiU
6	0	43	VirginiaTech
6	0	46	Clemson
6	0	48	Pepperdine
6	0	49	ColoradoU
6	0	50	IllinoisU
6	0	52	Louisville
6.5	0	36	WisconsinU
6.5	0	38	Butler
6.5	0	40	OhioState
6.5	0	45	ArizonaState
7	0	35	GeorgeMason
7	0	47	NorthwesternU
7	0	51	Providence
7	0	54	OklahomaState
7	0	56	VCU
7	0	57	OregonU
7	0	58	NebraskaU
7	0	60	Samford
8	0	55	FloridaU

NOTES:

Other potential seeds:

#1  Southern California, Georgetown

#2  UCLA, Duke

#3  Texas A&M, Virginia, South Carolina

#4  South Florida, Vanderbilt, Kansas, TCU,  Boston College, Penn State, Memphis

Regarding the seeds, a lot of them are not clear based on the Committee's historic patterns of seed decisions.  I wouldn't be surprised to see quite a bit of variation in seed placement from what I have above.

At large selections:

Based on the Committee's historic patterns, there was an unusually large group of 11 roughly equal teams competing for the last 7 at large positions.  From that group of 11, I used their Results against Top 50 teams, using my scoring system for that factor, as the decider.  I used that factor, as my observation of the Committee over time is that's the factor they seem to look to when resolving difficult decisions.  Here are those teams and how they fared based on that factor:

"Yes" at large selections (order in which they came in on the factor, Team, ARPI rank, Top 50 Results score, Top 50 Results rank):

1.  Virginia Tech, #43, 11,136, #21

2.  Illinois, #50, 2,610, #29

3.  Wake Forest, #31, 2,318, #31

4.  Mississippi, #39, 1,746, #32

5.  Pepperdine, #48, 1,732, #33

6.  Louisville, #51, 252, #42

7.  Colorado, #49, 64, #45

"No" at large selections

8.  Ohio State, #40, 34, #49

9.  Wisconsin, #36, 27, #50

10.  Arizona State, #45, 25, #51

11.  Butler, #38, 0, #57.5

2018 SIMULATED NCAA TOURNAMENT BRACKET 11.3.2018

Below is an updated simulated NCAA Tournament bracket based on the actual results of games played through Friday, November 2 and simulated results of games to be played today and tomorrow (Saturday and Sunday, November 3 and 4).  The simulated results are based on teams' ARPI ratings for games through last Sunday, October 28, as adjusted for home field advantage.

Here are some items that may be worth paying attention to:

1.  For #1 seeds, the simulation places Southern California a little ahead of UCLA for the fourth #1 seed, so I have indicated Southern California as a #1.  UCLA, however, just beat Southern California head-to-head, so there's a reasonable likelihood the Committee will prefer UCLA over Southern California if it comes down to them for the last #1 seed.

2.  The simulation has Princeton beating Penn in their game today.  This would have Princeton and Penn tied on points for the Ivy League title.  Assuming head-to-head results is the tiebreaker, it would make Princeton the Automatic Qualifier.  Thus the simulation has Princeton as the Ivy League's AQ.

3.  Teams competing for the last of the at large selections will be wanting to watch Princeton, St. Louis, and Long Beach State.  The simulation has all three of them as their conference Automatic Qualifiers.  If Penn ties or beats Princeton, then Princeton will not be an Automatic Qualifier; and if St. Louis or Long Beach State loses in their conference tournament championship games, then it will not be an Automatic Qualifier.  All three of these teams, however, look like they still might get at large selections ahead the other teams competing for the last at large selections.  That might not be the case, but it could be, we won't know until completion of all the games.

4.  The simulation shows seven teams with relative equivalent profiles competing for the last five at large positions.  If this is true after completion of all the games, the big question will be how the Committee will distinguish among them.  My best guess, based on experience with the numbers, is that the Committee will consider their results against well ranked teams as the deciding factor.  Using that factor and my point system for it, that suggests that the seven teams will fall out this way:

In  (ARPI Rank/Team/points for this factor/rank among Top 60 teams for this factor):

48 Illinois (2604/27)
51 Pepperdine (1732/31)
52 Louisville (252/42)
50 Colorado (52/44)
39 Ohio State (34/49)

Out:

37 Wisconsin (21/50)
44 Arizona State (13/53)

5.  There are no teams outside the Top 60 that look like potential at large selections if they were to make it into the Top 60.

Here is the key for the left-hand column:

1 = #1 seed
2 = #2 seed
3 = #3 seed
4 = #4 seed
5 = unseeded Automatic Qualifier
6 = at large selection
6.5 = in pool of essentially equal teams from which remaining at large spots must be filled
7 = Top 60 team not getting an at large selection
8 = Top 60+ team not eligible for at large selection due to record below 0.500

NCAA Seed or Selection	Automatic Qualifier	ARPI Rank for Formation	Team for Formation
1	AQ	1	Stanford
1	AQ	2	Baylor
1	AQ	3	NorthCarolinaU
1	0	7	SouthernCalifornia
2	AQ	4	Georgetown
2	0	5	FloridaState
2	0	6	UCLA
2	0	10	Duke
3	0	8	TennesseeU
3	0	9	TexasA&M
3	0	11	SantaClara
3	0	14	TexasU
4	0	12	WestVirginiaU
4	0	13	SouthFlorida
4	0	15	VirginiaU
4	AQ	19	PennState
5	AQ	16	Memphis
5	0	24	Princeton
5	AQ	26	ArkansasU
5	AQ	33	NorthTexas
5	AQ	38	LongBeachState
5	AQ	42	BYU
5	AQ	43	StLouis
5	AQ	45	TennesseeMartin
5	AQ	53	Monmouth
5	AQ	61	Radford
5	AQ	65	AbileneChristian
5	AQ	66	Hofstra
5	AQ	71	BallState
5	AQ	72	UNCGreensboro
5	AQ	76	Lipscomb
5	AQ	86	Denver
5	AQ	90	Milwaukee
5	AQ	92	BostonU
5	AQ	94	Albany
5	AQ	95	CentralConnecticut
5	AQ	100	UMKC
5	AQ	104	Furman
5	AQ	116	LoyolaChicago
5	AQ	123	TexasState
5	AQ	126	NorthernColorado
5	AQ	221	Grambling
6	0	17	MississippiState
6	0	18	SouthCarolinaU
6	0	20	TCU
6	0	21	NCState
6	0	22	Vanderbilt
6	0	23	KansasU
6	0	25	BostonCollege
6	0	27	LSU
6	0	28	Auburn
6	0	29	ArizonaU
6	0	30	Rutgers
6	0	31	WakeForest
6	0	32	TexasTech
6	0	35	WashingtonState
6	0	36	Butler
6	0	39	OhioState
6	0	41	VirginiaTech
6	0	46	Clemson
6	0	48	IllinoisU
6	0	50	ColoradoU
6	0	51	Pepperdine
6	0	52	Louisville
6.5	0	37	WisconsinU
6.5	0	44	ArizonaState
7	0	34	GeorgeMason
7	0	40	MississippiU
7	0	47	VCU
7	0	49	NorthwesternU
7	0	54	MinnesotaU
7	0	55	OklahomaState
7	0	56	Providence
7	0	58	NebraskaU
7	0	59	Samford
7	0	60	OregonU
8	0	57	FloridaU