2026 ARTICLE 12: SIMULATED END-OF-SEASON RANKINGS AND NCAA TOURNAMENT BRACKETS FOLLOWING WEEK 6

This week I begin posting two articles a week.  This Article 12 is based on my simulated end-of-season rankings.  Article 13 is based only on teams' actual games played through Week 6 and includes current NCAA RPI, Balanced RPI, KPI, and Massey ranks and other information.

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Here is a link to an Excel workbook with simulated full-season NCAA RPI and Balanced RPI ranks -- and other important information -- for teams, conferences, and regions.  The ranks are based on the actual results of games played through Week 6 (ending Sunday, September 20) and simulated results of games not yet played.

RPI Report as of 9.20.2026

2026 Article 8 has an explanation of the method I use to generate the simulated ranks and of the key information in the workbook.  Article 8 also has instructions on the best way to download the workbook.

For purposes of evaluating the usefulness of the ratings the simulation currently uses to predict the results of games not yet played:

The table's reference to Team 1 is to the home team or, if a neutral site game, the team whose name comes first alphabetically.

The second data row in the table, 2026 Team 1 Predicted Results, applies teams' simulated end-of-season RPI ratings to games actually played through September 20, to determine what Team 1's win, loss, and tie percentages should be if those ratings are correct.  The third data row then shows the difference between those predicted percentages and the actual percentages.  Thus, for example, the actual winning percentage for all Team 1s was 49.1%.  According to teams' end-of-season simulated ratings, the winning percentage should have been 50.3%.  The Actual Less Predicted Results row shows the difference between predicted and actual was -1.272%.

The last three data rows are similar, but instead of using teams' simulated end-of-season RPI ratings, it uses teams' actual current NCAA RPI ratings to determine what the percentages should be if those ratings are correct..

As you can see, the simulation's current ratings are a better match with actual results than are the actual current NCAA RPI ratings.  Because of this, for now I will continue using the simulation's ratings to predict future game results rather than converting to use of the NCAA RPI's current ratings.  In the upcoming weeks, I will continue doing this until the NCAA RPI's current ratings perform better than the simulation's current ratings.

SIMULATED NCAA TOURNAMENT BRACKETS USING THE NCAA RPI AND USING THE BALANCED RPI

Here are currently simulated NCAA Tournament brackets, first based on the NCAA RPI and then based on the Balanced RPI.  Following those is a table showing how the two compare. (NOTE: For conference tournaments, I have used simulated conference tournaments based on the NCAA RPI.)

Here is a key to the tables:

The first table shows the projected NCAA Tournament bracket based on the Committee's using the NCAA RPI:

The next table shows the projected bracket based on the Committee's using the Balanced RPI:

The final table compares the projected brackets.  It shows the teams in region order and in conference order so you can see how a change to the Balanced RPI would affect regions' and conferences' teams.  Salmon highlighting means the team gets a poorer treatment by the rating system and green means the team gets better treatment.  No highlighting means the treatment is the same.

NOTE:  The Comparison table is preliminary, so it is not the details that are important but rather the overall impression in terms of the difference between using the NCAA RPI as compared to the Balanced RPI.  If you review carefully the data in the above linked RPI report, you will see that the NCAA RPI has discriminatory patterns in relation to regions and conferences, whereas the Balanced RPI eliminates these patterns.  Thus the table below shows the effect of eliminating the NCAA RPI's discriminatory patterns.