2025 ARTICLE 28: NCAA TOURNAMENT BRACKET PROJECTIONS AFTER WEEK 12 GAMES

Below in this week's bonus article, I show predicted NCAA Tournament brackets based on the Women's Soccer Committee's historic patterns (1) with the Committee using the NCAA RPI as its rating system and (2) as if the Committee were using the Balanced RPI rather than the NCAA RPI.  I also include Chris Henderson's projected bracket so that you can compare all three.

The NCAA RPI and Balanced RPI predictions are based on the actual results of games played through Sunday, November 1, and predicted results of games not yet played including conference tournament games.  The predicted results are based on teams' current NCAA RPI ratings, in other words what the results would be if all teams perform exactly in accord with their ratings as adjusted for home field advantage.

For a case study showing why changes occur in a change from the NCAA RPI to the Balanced RPI, see 2025 Article 26

PROJECTED BRACKET COMPARISON

The following table shows projected brackets.  Below the table, there is a summary of the at large differences between the NCAA RPI and the Balanced RPI:

There are two differences in at large selections between using the NCAA RPI and using the Balanced RPI:

Using the NCAA RPI, Kansas State at #59 is outside the Committee's historic at large candidate group, which is teams #57 and better.  Using the Balanced RPI, Kansas State is #52 and gets an at large position.

Using the NCAA RPI, Georgia at #41 does not get an at large position.  Using the Balanced RPI it is at #27 and gets an at large position.

Those two teams bump Oklahoma and Saint Louis out of at large positions.  Oklahoma is #54 in the NCAA RPI and #44 in the Balanced RPI, so it loses its position notwithstanding its better Balanced RPI rank.  Saint Louis is #25 in the NCAA RPI and #45 in the Balanced RPI.

There are additional changes in the candidate groups (Top 57) between using the NCAA RPI and the Balanced RPI:

Teams dropping out of the Top 57 when going from the NCAA RPI to the Balanced RPI, some of which are Automatic Qualifiers and some of which do not get at large positions using the NCAA RPI:

Fairfield, AQ:  goes from 29 to 79

Charlotte, not at large:  42 to 65

South Alabama, AQ:  46 to 59

James Madison, not at large:  51 to 58

Samford, AQ:  52 to 86

Lipscomb, AQ:  56 to 108

Denver, AQ:  57 to 64

Teams (additional to Kansas State) entering the Top 57 candidate group when going from the NCAA RPI to the Balanced RPI, but not getting at large positions using the Balanced RPI:

Arizona State: 66 to 41

Southern California:  69 to 47

Seattle:  77 to 51

Houston:  84 to 57

Nebraska:  96 to 54

Portland:  98 to 53