2025 ARTICLE 28: NCAA TOURNAMENT BRACKET PROJECTIONS AFTER WEEK 12 GAMES

Below in this week's bonus article, I show predicted NCAA Tournament brackets based on the Women's Soccer Committee's historic patterns (1) with the Committee using the NCAA RPI as its rating system and (2) as if the Committee were using the Balanced RPI rather than the NCAA RPI.  I also include Chris Henderson's projected bracket so that you can compare all three.

The NCAA RPI and Balanced RPI predictions are based on the actual results of games played through Sunday, November 1, and predicted results of games not yet played including conference tournament games.  The predicted results are based on teams' current NCAA RPI ratings, in other words what the results would be if all teams perform exactly in accord with their ratings as adjusted for home field advantage.

For a case study showing why changes occur in a change from the NCAA RPI to the Balanced RPI, see 2025 Article 26

PROJECTED BRACKET COMPARISON

The following table shows projected brackets.  Below the table, there is a summary of the at large differences between the NCAA RPI and the Balanced RPI:

There are two differences in at large selections between using the NCAA RPI and using the Balanced RPI:

Using the NCAA RPI, Kansas State at #59 is outside the Committee's historic at large candidate group, which is teams #57 and better.  Using the Balanced RPI, Kansas State is #52 and gets an at large position.

Using the NCAA RPI, Georgia at #41 does not get an at large position.  Using the Balanced RPI it is at #27 and gets an at large position.

Those two teams bump Oklahoma and Saint Louis out of at large positions.  Oklahoma is #54 in the NCAA RPI and #44 in the Balanced RPI, so it loses its position notwithstanding its better Balanced RPI rank.  Saint Louis is #25 in the NCAA RPI and #45 in the Balanced RPI.

There are additional changes in the candidate groups (Top 57) between using the NCAA RPI and the Balanced RPI:

Teams dropping out of the Top 57 when going from the NCAA RPI to the Balanced RPI, some of which are Automatic Qualifiers and some of which do not get at large positions using the NCAA RPI:

Fairfield, AQ:  goes from 29 to 79

Charlotte, not at large:  42 to 65

South Alabama, AQ:  46 to 59

James Madison, not at large:  51 to 58

Samford, AQ:  52 to 86

Lipscomb, AQ:  56 to 108

Denver, AQ:  57 to 64

Teams (additional to Kansas State) entering the Top 57 candidate group when going from the NCAA RPI to the Balanced RPI, but not getting at large positions using the Balanced RPI:

Arizona State: 66 to 41

Southern California:  69 to 47

Seattle:  77 to 51

Houston:  84 to 57

Nebraska:  96 to 54

Portland:  98 to 53

2025 ARTICLE 27: RPI REPORTS AFTER WEEK 12 GAMES

This week's article has updates of the following reports:

Rankings and other data based on the results of games actually played to date;

Ratings and other data based on the results of games actually played to date PLUS predicted results of games not yet played.

In a bonus Article 28 this week, I'll post a predicted NCAA Tournament bracket based on the Women's Soccer Committee's historic patterns (1) with the Committee using the NCAA RPI as its rating system and (2) as if the Committee were using the Balanced RPI rather than the NCAA RPI.  The bonus article also will include Chris Henderson's projected bracket so that you can compare all three.

THIS WEEK'S TABLES

1.  Actual Current Ranks.  These are based only on games already played, through Sunday, November 2.  Teams' actual ranks in these reports (and the ratings on which the ranks are based) match those published by the NCAA at the NCAA's RPI Archive (except that the NCAA mistakenly is imposing penalty adjustments for losses and ties against non-Division 1 opponents), and also those published at Chris Henderson's 2025 Division I College Women's Soccer Schedule website.  These reports also include teams' current KPI, Massey, and Balanced RPI ranks so you can compare those systems' ratings, except that the Massey ratings are not yet available this week so they are not included.

2.  "Predicted" End-of-Season Ranks.  These are RPI reports based on the actual results of games already played PLUS predicted results of games not yet played, including in conference tournaments.  The reports now are close to where teams will end up at the end of the regular season.  The reports show both NCAA RPI and Balanced RPI ranks.

The result predictions for future games use teams' actual current NCAA RPI ratings as the basis for the predictions.  So these reports show where teams will end up if they all perform exactly in accord with their current NCAA RPI ratings in their remaining games

ACTUAL CURRENT RANKS

 Here are the actual current NCAA RPI and Balanced RPI ranks for teams.  For an Excel workbook containing these data, use the following link: 2025 RPI Report Actual Results Only After Week 12.

NOTE:  If you use the link, you will see the workbook in a Google Sheets format, which will be difficult or impossible to read.  Rather than trying to use that workbook, take the following steps to download the workbook as an Excel workbook:

Click on File in the upper left.

In the drop down menu, click on Download.

In the drop down menu, click on Microsoft Excel (.xlsx).

This will download the workbook as an Excel workbook.

In the tables, be sure to note the differences between teams', conferences', and regions' NCAA RPI ranks and their ranks, within the NCAA RPI formula, as strength of schedule contributors to their opponents' ratings.  You also can see the same information for the Balanced RPI.  Also check the the salmon-highlighted columns showing the differences between actual winning percentages and probable winning percentages.  The probable winning percentages are based on current NCAA RPI ratings.

Also, for each of teams, conferences, and regions, these reports show current KPI and Massey (not this week) ranks so you can compare them to the NCAA RPI and Balanced RPI ranks.

In the Teams table, the color coded columns on the left show, based on past history, the teams that are potential seeds and at large selections for the NCAA Tournament, given their NCAA RPI ranks at this point in the season.

Here are the actual current ranks for conferences:

And here are the current actual ranks for the regions.  Note that at the right end of the table are the distributions of each region's games among the different regions.  Next to that, you will see the proportion of tie games when teams from a region are playing opponents from the same region, which is an indicator of the level of parity within the region:

"PREDICTED" END-OF-SEASON RANKS

Here are the predicted end-of-season NCAA RPI  and Balanced RPI ranks for teams.  For an Excel workbook containing these data, use the following link: 2025 RPI Report After Week 12.

The color coded columns on the left show, based on past history, the teams that would be candidates for NCAA Tournament seed pods and at large positions if these were the final NCAA RPI ranks:

Here are the predicted end-of-season ranks for conferences:

And here are the predicted end-of-season ranks for the four geographic regions: