2024 ARTICLE 3: POST-WEEK-2 NEWS AND UPDATED PREDICTIONS

I have not found final word on whether the Women's Soccer Committee's recommended changes to the RPI will be in effect this year, but based on the Competition Oversight Committee's approval of the changes, I assume they will.  We know that one recommendation was to change the RPI value of ties from 1/2 a win to 1/3 of a win.  We know that the other recommendation was to change the bonus and penalty structure, but we don't yet know the amounts of the bonuses and penalties.  Given that, I have revised my program to include the tie valuation change but have retained, for now, the previous bonus and penalty structure.

Below are my updated predictions, after incorporating all actual game results through Sunday, August 25.

To give some context and so you can make your own decision on the reliability of the predictions, here are some numbers comparing the actual results of games so far to my predicted results for those games.  Team 1 is the home team or, for neutral site games, the team whose name is first in alphabetical order:

Actual Team 1 wins:  52.3%

Actual Team 1 losses:  29.4%

Actual Team 1 ties:  18.3%

Predicted Team 1 wins:  49.3%

Predicted Team 1 losses:  29.7%

Predicted Team 1 ties:  21.1%

Looking through a different lens, here are numbers comparing (1) the actual results so far for the higher rated team in relation to my assigned pre-season ratings and adjusting for home field advantage to (2) the actual results for all games played from 2010 through 2023 in relation to the NCAA's actual end-of-season ratings and adjusting for home field advantage, with both my assigned pre-season ratings and the NCAA ratings based on valuing ties as 1/3 of a win:

Historically, higher rated team wins:  65.3%

Historically, higher rated team loses:  13.6%

Historically, higher rated team ties:  21.1%

This year, my higher rated team actually wins:  62.6%

This year, my higher rated team actually loses:  19.1%

This year, my higher rated team actually ties:  18.3%

Team NCAA RPI, NCAA Non-Conference RPI, and Balanced RPI Ranks Plus NCAA RPI and Balanced RPI Strength of Schedule Contributor Ranks

Conference NCAA RPI, NCAA Non-Conference RPI, and Balanced RPI Ranks Plus NCAA RPI Strength of Schedule Contributor Ranks

 Predicted NCAA Tournament Automatic Qualifiers, Disqualified Teams, and At Large Selection Status, All for the Top 57 Teams

The table shows Florida, Michigan State, Iowa, SMU, and Georgia all in the Top 57 but being disqualified by having a winning percentage below 0.500.  Lots will change by the end of the season, so I look at these teams only as illustrating, for now, the effect of the change from valuing ties as 1/3 of a win rather than 1/2 a win.  Of the five teams, my program shows Georgia as being below 0.500 whether the tie value is 1/3 or 1/2.  It shows all of the others being below 0.500 with the tie value set at 1/3, but above 0.500 with the value set at 1/2.

If the number of disqualified teams persists, I wonder if the Committee will expand the candidate pool beyond the historic #57 ranked team cutoff.