This is my first weekly report for the 2023 season. Each week I will show:
1. Teams’ simulated ranks using the current NCAA RPI and my Balanced RPI;
2. Based on the current NCAA RPI, teams in candidate pools (expanded) for NCAA Tournament #1, 2, 3, and 4 seeds and for at large selections and where they appear to fit within the pools; and
3. Likely differences in at large selections for the NCAA Tournament if the Women’s Soccer Committee were to use the Balanced RPI rather than the current NCAA RPI.
The background for the information is in 2023 Reports 1 through 4.
Each week, I replace my simulated results for the previous week with actual results. So this week’s information is based on actual results of games played through Sunday, August 20, and simulated results of games not yet played.
Simulated Ranks
(ARPI 2015 BPs is the current NCAA RPI; URPI 50 50 SoS Iteration 15 is the Balanced RPI)
NCAA Tournament At Large Selections Using Current NCAA RPI As Compared To Balanced RPI
In the table, the specific teams are not particularly important this early in the season. The general nature of their conferences and regions, however, paint a pretty good picture of the difference between the current NCAA RPI and the Balanced RPI. Of particular import, as demonstrated elsewhere, the current NCAA RPI discriminates against stronger conferences and regions whereas the Balanced RPI does not. The effects of this show up in the table:
1. The red highlighting is for teams that are in the Top 57 using the current NCAA RPI and thus candidates for at large positions in the NCAA Tournament, if not Automatic Qualifiers. But under the Balanced RPI they are outside the Top 57 and therefore not candidates for at large positions. Note that none of these eight teams is from a Power 5 conference. (Although the current NCAA RPI, for the simulated season, has the Ivy as the #5 conference, the Balanced RPI has it as #8. The current NCAA RPI has the Big East as #7, with the Balanced RPI having it at #7.)
2. The eight teams that replace the eight red highlighted teams are Washington, Arizona State, Colorado, Auburn, Mississippi, Cal State Fullerton, Oregon, and Arizona (the latter two of which are disqualified from at large selection due to records below 0.500). Note that all of these are from Power 5 conferences except for Cal State Fullerton which is from the strongest region based on average ratings, the West. Also, Cal State Fullerton is from the BigWest conference, which the current NCAA RPI ranks #19 but the Balanced RPI ranks #10. (Note that the current NCAA Non-Conference RPI ranks it at #13. The NCAA says that the Non-Conference RPI is a better measure of conference strength than is the current NCAA RPI, and my own analysis confirms this.)
3. Of the teams in the Top 57 under both rating systems, there are four that likely would get at large selections under the current NCAA RPI but not under the Balanced RPI: Oklahoma State, Brown, Butler, and Monmouth. Only one of these is from a Power 5 conference.
4. Likely replacing those four teams are four that are outside the Top 57 under the current NCAA RPI: Washington, Colorado, Arizona State, and Auburn. All are from Power 5 conferences and three from the strongest region.
5. Thus the red highlighted teams eliminated from contention under the Balanced RPI are not hurt in terms of NCAA Tournament at large selection because they either are Automatic Qualifiers or likely would not get an at large position under the current NCAA RPI. However, under the Balanced RPI they are replaced by teams that should be in contention but are not under the current NCAA RPI because of its discriminatory effects. Further, some of the replacement teams likely would get at large selections -- in the current simulation, four replacement teams likly would get them -- thus displacing from at large selection other less deserving teams based on Committee historic patterns.
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