IT’S TIME TO CHANGE THE RPI

In the past, I have written extensively about the defects in the version of the RPI the NCAA currently uses for Division 1 women’s soccer.  After many experiments, I now have a version of the RPI whose format is credible and that is far superior to the current RPI, eliminating all of its problems.  I call it the Balanced RPI.

Based on a review of the seasons from 2007 through 2022, the Balanced RPI likely would have resulted in 3 to 4 different at large selections per year.  The Big 10 likely would have received about 1 additional selection per year, followed by the West Coast Conference and Pac 12 and then the ACC in terms of other conferences receiving additional positions.  The Big East, SEC, Big 12, American, and Colonial conferences would have received fewer positions.  Given the far superiority of the Balanced RPI over the currently used RPI, the additional positions some conferences would have received are positions they deserved but were denied simply because of the RPI’s defects and the NCAA’s insistence that the Committee use, and only use, the RPI.  Similarly, the positions some conferences would have lost are positions they were given simply because of the RPI’s defects.

Ideally, the NCAA will move to using the Balanced RPI for Division 1 women’s soccer.  As an alternative, it could use the Balanced RPI as a supplemental rating resource for the Women’s Soccer Committee.  And as a minimum, it should allow the Committee to use the Balanced RPI as a supplemental resource on an experimental basis, starting this year.

To help things along, this year in my weekly publications during the season, I will be showing how teams’ current NCAA RPI ranks compare to their Balanced RPI ranks.  And, in my weekly simulations of NCAA Tournament at large selections, I will compare the projected at large selections based on the current NCAA RPI with projected selections based on the Balanced RPI.  And, at the end of the season, I will compare the Committee’s actual at large selections with what they likely would have been if the Committee had used the Balanced RPI rather than the current NCAA RPI.

You do not have to just take my word for it.  At the RPI for Division 1 Women’s Soccer website, on the RPI: Modified RPI? page, I have provided the formula for the Balanced RPI, a detailed comparison of the current NCAA RPI to the Balanced RPI demonstrating why the Balanced RPI is far superior, and a link to an Excel workbook that has a detailed comparison of past actual at large selections to what they likely would have been if the Committee had been using the Balanced RPI.  Absolutely everything is as objective, open, and reviewable as I can make it, and I have high confidence in my conclusions.  Nevertheless, do your own review and make your own judgments.