2019 SIMULATED NCAA TOURNAMENT BRACKET 11.4.2019

Here is this week's simulated NCAA Tournament bracket, based on the actual results of games played through Sunday, November 3, and simulated results of games not yet played including conference tournament games.  The simulated results are based on teams' actual current RPI ratings as adjusted for home field advantage.  The Committee decisions indicated by the simulated bracket are based on Committee decision patterns over the last 12 years, as measured by 92 metrics related to the decision-making criteria the NCAA has given to the Committee.

The simulated bracket assumes that teams will perform in accord with their ratings over the last games of the season.  This, of course, may not happen as indicated by some very significant conference tournament upsets this past week.

Here is the key to the numbers in the NCAA Seed or Selection column:

1 = #1 seed
2 = #2 seed
3 = #3 seed
4 = #4 seed
5 = unseeded Automatic Qualifier
6 = unseeded at large selection
7 = Top 60 team not getting an at large selection

In this week's simulated bracket, here are the last 5 teams getting at large selections, with 1 as the most likely and 5 as the least likely, according to my system:

1.  Texas
2.  Iowa
3.  Portland
4.  Ole Miss
5.  Xavier

Here are the first 6 teams not getting at large selections, with 1 as the most likely to get a selection and 6 as the least likely, according to my system:

1.  Georgia
2.  Tennessee
3.  Oregon State
4.  Columbia
5.  Harvard
6.  South Florida

From among these teams, both Georgia and Tennessee have the best results, using my scoring system, against Top 50 teams.  However, they also have significant negatives.  In fact, Georgia, with the best results against Top 50 teams, looks like it will end up with an RPI rank of #59, which is outside the level of teams that have gotten at large selections over the last 12 years.  Its RPI rating likewise looks like it will be outside that level.  For Tennessee, its finish of #11 in the SEC regular season standings does not, in itself, disqualify it, but history indicates its positives won't be sufficient to overcome that conference finishing position.  The Committee, of course, is not bound to follow past patterns, so either or both of these teams could get at large selections.

NCAA Seed or Selection	Automatic Qualifier	ARPI Rank for Formation	Team for Formation
1	AQ	1	Stanford
1	AQ	2	NorthCarolinaU
1	0	3	FloridaState
1	0	5	VirginiaU
2	AQ	4	ArkansasU
2	0	7	SouthernCalifornia
2	0	10	SouthCarolinaU
2	0	11	UCLA
3	AQ	8	Brown
3	AQ	9	OklahomaState
3	0	12	TexasTech
3	AQ	15	BYU
4	AQ	6	Rutgers
4	0	13	KansasU
4	0	14	Duke
4	0	19	WisconsinU
5	AQ	16	Hofstra
5	AQ	20	Memphis
5	AQ	21	FloridaAtlantic
5	AQ	30	Georgetown
5	AQ	37	StLouis
5	AQ	42	Monmouth
5	AQ	47	Milwaukee
5	AQ	55	Furman
5	AQ	58	Denver
5	AQ	61	SouthAlabama
5	AQ	65	LoyolaChicago
5	AQ	71	BowlingGreen
5	AQ	74	KennesawState
5	AQ	87	Navy
5	AQ	89	BoiseState
5	AQ	92	Lamar
5	AQ	102	Campbell
5	AQ	105	SoutheastMissouriState
5	AQ	109	CalStateFullerton
5	AQ	112	StonyBrook
5	AQ	128	Seattle
5	AQ	144	CentralConnecticut
5	AQ	148	SacramentoState
5	AQ	163	Howard
6	0	17	TexasA&M
6	0	18	VirginiaTech
6	0	22	WashingtonState
6	0	23	NCState
6	0	24	WashingtonU
6	0	25	CaliforniaU
6	0	26	MichiganU
6	0	27	Louisville
6	0	28	PennState
6	0	29	SantaClara
6	0	31	WestVirginiaU
6	0	32	ColoradoU
6	0	33	FloridaU
6	0	35	AlabamaU
6	0	36	Clemson
6	0	38	NotreDame
6	0	40	Vanderbilt
6	0	41	ArizonaU
6	0	44	IowaU
6	0	45	Xavier
6	0	46	TexasU
6	0	49	Pepperdine
6	0	50	PortlandU
6	0	51	MississippiU
7	0	34	SouthFlorida
7	0	39	Harvard
7	0	43	Yale
7	0	48	Columbia
7	0	52	OregonState
7	0	53	TennesseeU
7	0	54	NorthTexas
7	0	56	Mercer
7	0	57	Baylor
7	0	59	GeorgiaU
7	0	60	SanFrancisco
	0	62	DePaul