NCAA Tournament Bracket: Loyola Marymount and Virginia Tech "Out" -- Why?

This hopefully will be my last analysis of specific Committee decisions this year, examining the Committee's not giving at large positions to Loyola Marymount and Virginia Tech.  Some have argued that one or both of these teams should have gotten at large positions in the Tournament, neither got one.

Loyola Marymount

Here is Loyola Marymount's profile:

ARPI  0.5744
ARPI Rank  52
ANCRPI  0.5924
ANCRPI Rank  41
Top 60 Results Score  18
Top 60 Results Rank  49.5
Conference Standing  4
Conference ARPI  .5354
Conference ARPI Rank  9
Head to Head Results Score  -0.37
Common Opponents Results Score  -3.63
Common Opponents Results Rank  54
Last 8 Games Score  -12

Loyola Marymount met 0 "yes"; and 6 "no" standards.

"No" standards:

ARPI Rank >=48, and Top 60 Results Score <=172
ARPI Rank >=48, and Top 60 Results Rank >=47
ARPI Rank >=49, and Top 60 Results Rank >=46
ARPI Rank >=51, and Top 60 Results Rank >=41
Top 60 Results Rank >=45, and Last 8 Games Score <=-11
Top 60 Results Rank >=46, and Last 8 Games Score <=-10

Essentially, Loyola Marymount had two things going against it:

• It did not have any really outstanding results.  Its best wins were against Pepperdine (#38), Long Beach State (#47), Ball State (#51), and San Diego (#71); and its best ties were against Texas Tech (#42) and Tulsa (#84)
• It had some pretty poor results.  Its worst loss was to St. Mary's (#211) and its worst tie was against UC Santa Barbara (#113).

In both cases, Loyola Marymount was pretty far off from what historically has been expected for an at large selection.  Fundamentally, Loyola Marymount simply hadn't done enough to distinguish itself from the field of at large competitors.

Virginia Tech

Virginia Tech's situation is not as straightforward.  Here is its profile:

ARPI  0.5859

ARPI Rank  39

ANCRPI  0.5900

ANCRPI Rank  45

Top 60 Results Score  2304

Top 60 Results Rank  28

Conference Standing  9

Conference ARPI  .5928

Conference Rank  2

Head to Head Results Score  -1.67

Common Opponent Results Score  -4.68

Common Opponent Results Rank  58

Last 8 Games Score  -10

Virginia Tech met 8 "yes" standards; and 7 "no" standards

"Yes" standards:

ARPI Rank <=39, and Top 60 Results Score >=96

ARPI Rank <=41, and Top 60 Results Score >=384

ARPI Rank <=39, and Top 60 Results Rank <=45

ARPI Rank <=41, and Top 60 Results Rank <=35

ARPI Rank <=39, and Conference ARPI >=.5809

ARPI Rank <=41, and Conference ARPI >=.5839

ARPI Rank <=42, and Conference ARPI >=.5867

ARPI Rank <=41, and Conference Rank <=2

"No" standards:

Head to Head Results Score <=-1.37

ANCRPI >=42, and Conference Standing >=9

Conference Standing >=3.75, and Head to Head Results Score<=-1.33

Conference Standing >=5.25, and Head to Head Results Score <=-1.17

Head to Head Results Score <=-1.33, and Common Opponents Rank >=47

Head to Head Results Score <=-1.22, and Common Opponents Rank >=53

Head to Head Results Score <=-1.00, and Common Opponents Rank >=58

Thus, going for it, Virginia Tech had its ARPI rank, some good results against Top 60 teams, and its conference's strength.  Going against it, it had overall poor head to head results against Top 60 teams (notwithstanding that a couple of its results were good); its poor conference standing; and poor results against common opponents with other Top 60 teams.

Given Virginia Tech's unusual profile, with both strong positives and strong negatives, my best guess is that its #9 position in its conference standings was decisive.  In the context of its mixed record in relation to the Committee's criteria, #9 simply was too poor a conference standing, in comparison to its competitors, even though its conference was ranked #2 (#3 in the ANCRPI).

Opinion

Given the criteria and the Committee's history applying the criteria to teams' profiles, it's hard to see Loyola Marymount getting an at large selection.  As for Virginia Tech, either a "yes" or a "no" decision would be reasonable to me, although it would have been very difficult for the Committee to include the #9 team from a conference, particularly a conference that is not the #1 conference.