2017 RPI Ranks 10.16.2017

Below are teams' Adjusted RPI ranks based on all games played through Sunday, October 15.  In the columns to the left, I've indicated which teams, as of this point in the season, are potential #1, 2, 3, and 4 seeds.  I've also indicated which teams should be considered potential "bubble" teams.  The teams ranked better than the bubble should be considered "safe" for at large selection.  The teams ranked poorer than the bubble should be considered out of contention.  These seed and at large ranges are based on the last 10 years' experience as applied to the current version of the Adjusted RPI.

2017 Simulated RPI Ranks 10.16.2017

Below are teams' simulated Adjusted RPI ranks for the entire season.  The simulation is based on:

• the actual results of games played through Sunday, October 15;
• simulated results of all games not yet played, with the simulated results based on teams' actual current Adjusted RPIs as adjusted for game locations; and
• simulated conference tournaments and results.

We're now roughly 80% through the season (including conference tournament games), so the simulations are beginning to home in on where teams ultimately will end up.  There's always room for change, but the likelihood of dramatic change is diminishing.

Team	ARPI Rank	Conference
SouthCarolinaU	1	SEC
Stanford	2	PacTwelve
NorthCarolinaU	3	ACC
UCF	4	American
Duke	5	ACC
WestVirginiaU	6	BigTwelve
TennesseeU	7	SEC
UCLA	8	PacTwelve
PennState	9	BigTen
TexasU	10	BigTwelve
Princeton	11	Ivy
FloridaState	12	ACC
TexasA&M	13	SEC
Rutgers	14	BigTen
Pepperdine	15	WestCoast
OhioState	16	BigTen
MississippiU	17	SEC
MurrayState	18	OhioValley
CaliforniaU	19	PacTwelve
Cincinnati	20	American
Hofstra	21	Colonial
ArizonaU	22	PacTwelve
Rice	23	ConferenceUSA
FloridaGulfCoast	24	AtlanticSun
WakeForest	25	ACC
NotreDame	26	ACC
FloridaU	27	SEC
SouthFlorida	28	American
AlabamaU	29	SEC
VirginiaU	30	ACC
Auburn	31	SEC
WisconsinU	32	BigTen
SantaClara	33	WestCoast
StLouis	34	AtlanticTen
Georgetown	35	BigEast
Monmouth	36	MetroAtlantic
OklahomaState	37	BigTwelve
Memphis	38	American
WashingtonU	39	PacTwelve
SouthernCalifornia	40	PacTwelve
VirginiaTech	41	ACC
LSU	42	SEC
NorthwesternU	43	BigTen
Drake	44	MissouriValley
Butler	45	BigEast
Northeastern	46	Colonial
NCState	47	ACC
Drexel	48	Colonial
UCIrvine	49	BigWest
LoyolaMarymount	50	WestCoast
TCU	51	BigTwelve
UNLV	52	MountainWest
UAB	53	ConferenceUSA
Marquette	54	BigEast
Yale	55	Ivy
LaSalle	56	AtlanticTen
SanJoseState	57	MountainWest
MichiganU	58	BigTen
BostonCollege	59	ACC
MississippiState	60	SEC
ColoradoU	61	PacTwelve
UtahU	62	PacTwelve
Columbia	63	Ivy
KentState	64	MidAmerican
Navy	65	Patriot
MinnesotaU	66	BigTen
Baylor	67	BigTwelve
Clemson	68	ACC
SouthAlabama	69	SunBelt
Belmont	70	OhioValley
Purdue	71	BigTen
NewHampshireU	72	AmericaEast
NorthernKentucky	73	Horizon
Lamar	74	Southland
Furman	75	Southern
EasternWashington	76	BigSky
Xavier	77	BigEast
Milwaukee	78	Horizon
NebraskaU	79	BigTen
NorthTexas	80	ConferenceUSA
Gonzaga	81	WestCoast
Stetson	82	AtlanticSun
Providence	83	BigEast
LongBeachState	84	BigWest
MarylandU	85	BigTen
Duquesne	86	AtlanticTen
Vanderbilt	87	SEC
WashingtonState	88	PacTwelve
StJosephs	89	AtlanticTen
MontanaU	90	BigSky
Liberty	91	BigSouth
LouisianaTech	92	ConferenceUSA
BostonU	93	Patriot
ArkansasU	94	SEC
Brown	95	Ivy
TexasTech	96	BigTwelve
Bryant	97	Northeast
UNI	98	MissouriValley
SMU	99	American
KentuckyU	100	SEC
TennesseeTech	101	OhioValley
Louisville	102	ACC
Samford	103	Southern
KansasU	104	BigTwelve
StephenFAustin	105	Southland
NewMexicoU	106	MountainWest
BYU	107	WestCoast
CalStateFullerton	108	BigWest
Valparaiso	109	MissouriValley
EasternKentucky	110	OhioValley
Charlotte	111	ConferenceUSA
IowaU	112	BigTen
BallState	113	MidAmerican
IUPUI	114	Horizon
StonyBrook	115	AmericaEast
Pittsburgh	116	ACC
ArkansasState	117	SunBelt
HighPoint	118	BigSouth
NorthernColorado	119	BigSky
Lipscomb	120	AtlanticSun
Colgate	121	Patriot
Syracuse	122	ACC
DelawareU	123	Colonial
ArizonaState	124	PacTwelve
IndianaU	125	BigTen
LoyolaChicago	126	MissouriValley
SanDiegoState	127	MountainWest
TexasState	128	SunBelt
GeorgeWashington	129	AtlanticTen
Houston	130	American
Bucknell	131	Patriot
UCSantaBarbara	132	BigWest
NorthernIllinois	133	MidAmerican
OregonU	134	PacTwelve
ConnecticutU	135	American
McNeeseState	136	Southland
MichiganState	137	BigTen
CollegeofCharleston	138	Colonial
Dayton	139	AtlanticTen
Harvard	140	Ivy
Villanova	141	BigEast
GeorgiaU	142	SEC
SanFrancisco	143	WestCoast
William&Mary	144	Colonial
SouthDakotaState	145	Summit
AirForce	146	MountainWest
VCU	147	AtlanticTen
FresnoState	148	MountainWest
Binghamton	149	AmericaEast
Quinnipiac	150	MetroAtlantic
TexasRGV	151	WAC
UtahState	152	MountainWest
CalStateNorthridge	153	BigWest
GeorgiaSouthern	154	SunBelt
UNCGreensboro	155	Southern
Longwood	156	BigSouth
DePaul	157	BigEast
GeorgeMason	158	AtlanticTen
FairleighDickinson	159	Northeast
FloridaAtlantic	160	ConferenceUSA
JamesMadison	161	Colonial
AustinPeay	162	OhioValley
WrightState	163	Horizon
UALR	164	SunBelt
IllinoisState	165	MissouriValley
OldDominion	166	ConferenceUSA
Toledo	167	MidAmerican
SacramentoState	168	BigSky
Dartmouth	169	Ivy
MissouriU	170	SEC
KennesawState	171	AtlanticSun
SanDiegoU	172	WestCoast
Troy	173	SunBelt
Lehigh	174	Patriot
UNCWilmington	175	Colonial
SouthernMississippi	176	ConferenceUSA
Elon	177	Colonial
CentralArkansas	178	Southland
EastCarolina	179	American
BoiseState	180	MountainWest
NorthFlorida	181	AtlanticSun
WesternKentucky	182	ConferenceUSA
PennsylvaniaU	183	Ivy
WesternCarolina	184	Southern
Manhattan	185	MetroAtlantic
Radford	186	BigSouth
MassachusettsU	187	AtlanticTen
StFrancis	188	Northeast
WesternMichigan	189	MidAmerican
KansasState	190	BigTwelve
MiddleTennessee	191	ConferenceUSA
WyomingU	192	MountainWest
CoastalCarolina	193	SunBelt
BowlingGreen	194	MidAmerican
UCRiverside	195	BigWest
Siena	196	MetroAtlantic
ClevelandState	197	Horizon
OklahomaU	198	BigTwelve
Temple	199	American
MissouriState	200	MissouriValley
SoutheastMissouriState	201	OhioValley
MiamiFL	202	ACC
CentralConnecticut	203	Northeast
Cornell	204	Ivy
Buffalo	205	MidAmerican
AlabamaState	206	Southwestern
NewMexicoState	207	WAC
Grambling	208	Southwestern
OregonState	209	PacTwelve
IndianaState	210	MissouriValley
StJohns	211	BigEast
JacksonvilleState	212	OhioValley
HoustonBaptist	213	Southland
UMKC	214	WAC
Niagara	215	MetroAtlantic
ColoradoState	216	MountainWest
StMarys	217	WestCoast
TexasCorpusChristi	218	Southland
Campbell	219	BigSouth
NorthernArizona	220	BigSky
Marshall	221	ConferenceUSA
SIUEdwardsville	222	OhioValley
OhioU	223	MidAmerican
CalPoly	224	BigWest
IllinoisU	225	BigTen
Denver	226	Summit
SamHoustonState	227	Southland
ColoradoCollege	228	MountainWest
IowaState	229	BigTwelve
Hartford	230	AmericaEast
Towson	231	Colonial
UCDavis	232	BigWest
Tulsa	233	American
VermontU	234	AmericaEast
Mercer	235	Southern
Seattle	236	WAC
UMassLowell	237	AmericaEast
SacredHeart	238	Northeast
Fairfield	239	MetroAtlantic
UTSA	240	ConferenceUSA
EastTennesseeState	241	Southern
LouisianaLafayette	242	SunBelt
UtahValley	243	WAC
TennesseeMartin	244	OhioValley
AbileneChristian	245	Southland
Lafayette	246	Patriot
PortlandU	247	WestCoast
TexasSouthern	248	Southwestern
NJIT	249	AtlanticSun
Fordham	250	AtlanticTen
Howard	251	Southwestern
UTEP	252	ConferenceUSA
IdahoU	253	BigSky
AppalachianState	254	SunBelt
Creighton	255	BigEast
Pacific	256	WestCoast
MaineU	257	AmericaEast
Rider	258	MetroAtlantic
CentralMichigan	259	MidAmerican
CalStateBakersfield	260	WAC
NorthDakotaU	261	BigSky
UNCAsheville	262	BigSouth
Marist	263	MetroAtlantic
OralRoberts	264	Summit
WeberState	265	BigSky
IllinoisChicago	266	Horizon
Canisius	267	MetroAtlantic
HawaiiU	268	BigWest
Chattanooga	269	Southern
UNOmaha	270	Summit
NorthDakotaState	271	Summit
RhodeIslandU	272	AtlanticTen
Morehead	273	OhioValley
NorthwesternState	274	Southland
Richmond	275	AtlanticTen
GeorgiaState	276	SunBelt
EasternIllinois	277	OhioValley
HolyCross	278	Patriot
EasternMichigan	279	MidAmerican
USCUpstate	280	AtlanticSun
American	281	Patriot
CharlestonSouthern	282	BigSouth
SouthernUtah	283	BigSky
StBonaventure	284	AtlanticTen
PortlandState	285	BigSky
VMI	286	Southern
Albany	287	AmericaEast
GardnerWebb	288	BigSouth
SetonHall	289	BigEast
Evansville	290	MissouriValley
LouisianaMonroe	291	SunBelt
Wagner	292	Northeast
Army	293	Patriot
Akron	294	MidAmerican
NichollsState	295	Southland
Davidson	296	AtlanticTen
Winthrop	297	BigSouth
Presbyterian	298	BigSouth
IncarnateWord	299	Southland
SouthDakotaU	300	Summit
MississippiValley	301	Southwestern
LongIsland	302	Northeast
PrairieViewA&M	303	Southwestern
Wofford	304	Southern
YoungstownState	305	Horizon
GrandCanyon	306	WAC
UMBC	307	AmericaEast
MiamiOH	308	MidAmerican
SELouisiana	309	Southland
JacksonvilleU	310	AtlanticSun
Oakland	311	Horizon
Iona	312	MetroAtlantic
RobertMorris	313	Northeast
FIU	314	ConferenceUSA
IdahoState	315	BigSky
MountStMary	316	Northeast
Detroit	317	Horizon
NevadaU	318	MountainWest
AlcornState	319	Southwestern
LoyolaMD	320	Patriot
Citadel	321	Southern
WesternIllinois	322	Summit
StPeters	323	MetroAtlantic
JacksonState	324	Southwestern
GreenBay	325	Horizon
ArkansasPineBluff	326	Southwestern
SouthCarolinaState	327	Independent
IPFW	328	Summit
SouthernU	329	Southwestern
ChicagoState	330	WAC
DelawareState	331	Independent
AlabamaA&M	332	Southwestern
Hampton	333	Independent

2017 NCAA Tournament Bracket Simulation 10.16.2017

Below are simulated seeds, unseeded automatic qualifiers, and at large selections for the NCAA Tournament.  The simulation is based on this week's simulated full season, including conference tournaments.  The simulation has Columbia and Princeton ending up tied at the top of the Ivy League.  Given that, I've selected Columbia as getting the Ivy League automatic qualifier position because (1) it has a head to head win over Princeton and (2) the simulation has Columbia with a better goal differential than Princeton against Ivy League opponents.  The other two conferences that don't have conference tournaments (Pac 12 and West Coast) have clear simulation champions.

EDIT:  There's one error in what you'll see below, due to a mistake I made in the Atlantic Sun's conference tournament.  (Setting up the conference tournaments requires a fair number of manual entries, which increases the opportunity for errors.)  The error has Lipscomb as the Atlantic Sun tournament champion, whereas it should be Florida Gulf Coast.  So, Lipscomb really should be out of the picture and FGCU should be the champion.  This, in turn, opens up a space for another at large selection.  It's a close call, but the right call looks like TCU.  So, add TCU to the at large selection list.

In the NCAA Seed or Selection column, the number code is:

1 = #1 seed
2 = #2 seed
3 = #3 seed
4 = #4 seed
5 = unseeded automatic qualifier
6 = unseeded at large selection
7 = top 60 team, but not getting an at large selection
8 = top 60 teams, but disqualified from at large selection due to below 0.500 winning percentage
9 = outside the top 60, but competitive for at large selection if within the top 60

At the bottom of the table, I've indicated other potential seeds.  The table covers the top 150 teams in the Adjusted RPI rankings.

NCAA Seed or Selection	Automatic Qualifier	ARPI Rank for Formation	Team for Formation
1	AQ	1	SouthCarolinaU
1	AQ	2	Stanford
1	AQ	3	NorthCarolinaU
1	0	5	Duke
2	AQ	4	UCF
2	AQ	6	WestVirginiaU
2	0	7	TennesseeU
2	AQ	9	PennState
3	0	8	UCLA
3	0	11	Princeton
3	0	13	TexasA&M
3	0	16	OhioState
4	0	10	TexasU
4	0	12	FloridaState
4	0	20	Cincinnati
4	0	25	WakeForest
5	AQ	15	Pepperdine
5	AQ	18	MurrayState
5	AQ	21	Hofstra
5	AQ	23	Rice
5	AQ	34	StLouis
5	AQ	36	Monmouth
5	AQ	44	Drake
5	AQ	45	Butler
5	AQ	49	UCIrvine
5	AQ	52	UNLV
5	0	63	Columbia
5	AQ	64	KentState
5	AQ	69	SouthAlabama
5	AQ	72	NewHampshireU
5	AQ	73	NorthernKentucky
5	AQ	74	Lamar
5	AQ	75	Furman
5	AQ	76	EasternWashington
5	AQ	91	Liberty
5	AQ	97	Bryant
5	AQ	120	Lipscomb
5	AQ	145	SouthDakotaState
6	0	14	Rutgers
6	0	17	MississippiU
6	0	19	CaliforniaU
6	0	22	ArizonaU
6	0	24	FloridaGulfCoast
6	0	26	NotreDame
6	0	27	FloridaU
6	0	28	SouthFlorida
6	0	29	AlabamaU
6	0	30	VirginiaU
6	0	31	Auburn
6	0	32	WisconsinU
6	0	33	SantaClara
6	0	35	Georgetown
6	0	37	OklahomaState
6	0	38	Memphis
6	0	39	WashingtonU
6	0	40	SouthernCalifornia
6	0	41	VirginiaTech
6	0	42	LSU
6	0	43	NorthwesternU
6	0	46	Northeastern
6	0	47	NCState
6	0	55	Yale
7	0	48	Drexel
7	0	50	LoyolaMarymount
7	0	51	TCU
7	0	53	UAB
7	0	54	Marquette
7	0	56	LaSalle
7	0	57	SanJoseState
7	0	58	MichiganU
7	0	59	BostonCollege
7	0	60	MississippiState
9	0	61	ColoradoU
9	0	62	UtahU
9	0	71	Purdue
9	0	77	Xavier
	0	65	Navy
	0	66	MinnesotaU
	0	67	Baylor
	0	68	Clemson
	0	70	Belmont
	0	78	Milwaukee
	0	79	NebraskaU
	0	80	NorthTexas
	0	81	Gonzaga
	0	82	Stetson
	0	83	Providence
	0	84	LongBeachState
	0	85	MarylandU
	0	86	Duquesne
	0	87	Vanderbilt
	0	88	WashingtonState
	0	89	StJosephs
	0	90	MontanaU
	0	92	LouisianaTech
	0	93	BostonU
	0	94	ArkansasU
	0	95	Brown
	0	96	TexasTech
	0	98	UNI
	0	99	SMU
	0	100	KentuckyU
	0	101	TennesseeTech
	0	102	Louisville
	0	103	Samford
	0	104	KansasU
	0	105	StephenFAustin
	0	106	NewMexicoU
	0	107	BYU
	0	108	CalStateFullerton
	0	109	Valparaiso
	0	110	EasternKentucky
	0	111	Charlotte
	0	112	IowaU
	0	113	BallState
	0	114	IUPUI
	0	115	StonyBrook
	0	116	Pittsburgh
	0	117	ArkansasState
	0	118	HighPoint
	0	119	NorthernColorado
	0	121	Colgate
	0	122	Syracuse
	0	123	DelawareU
	0	124	ArizonaState
	0	125	IndianaU
	0	126	LoyolaChicago
	0	127	SanDiegoState
	0	128	TexasState
	0	129	GeorgeWashington
	0	130	Houston
	0	131	Bucknell
	0	132	UCSantaBarbara
	0	133	NorthernIllinois
	0	134	OregonU
	0	135	ConnecticutU
	0	136	McNeeseState
	0	137	MichiganState
	0	138	CollegeofCharleston
	0	139	Dayton
	0	140	Harvard
	0	141	Villanova
	0	142	GeorgiaU
	0	143	SanFrancisco
	0	144	William&Mary
	0	146	AirForce
	0	147	VCU
	0	148	FresnoState
	0	149	Binghamton
	0	150	Quinnipiac

Other potential seeds:

#1:  UCF, Tennessee, Penn State, UCLA, West Virginia

#2:  UCLA, Texas A&M

#3:  Texas, Florida State, Rutgers, Wake Forest, Cincinnati

#4:  Pepperdine, Rutgers, Florida, Mississippi, California