2017 Simulated RPI Ranks 10.2.2017

Here are this week's simulated RPI ranks.  They're based on actual results of games played through Sunday, October 1, and simulated results for the balance of the regular season including simulated conference tournaments.  The simulated results and tournaments are based on teams' actual ARPI ratings for games through October 1.

Team	ARPI Rank	Conference
SouthCarolinaU	1	SEC
Stanford	2	PacTwelve
NorthCarolinaU	3	ACC
UCF	4	American
WestVirginiaU	5	BigTwelve
TexasU	6	BigTwelve
Duke	7	ACC
Rutgers	8	BigTen
UCLA	9	PacTwelve
Princeton	10	Ivy
TennesseeU	11	SEC
FloridaState	12	ACC
Georgetown	13	BigEast
FloridaU	14	SEC
Cincinnati	15	American
PennState	16	BigTen
TexasA&M	17	SEC
MississippiU	18	SEC
CaliforniaU	19	PacTwelve
OhioState	20	BigTen
MurrayState	21	OhioValley
ArizonaU	22	PacTwelve
Rice	23	ConferenceUSA
Pepperdine	24	WestCoast
AlabamaU	25	SEC
NotreDame	26	ACC
FloridaGulfCoast	27	AtlanticSun
LongBeachState	28	BigWest
Auburn	29	SEC
WakeForest	30	ACC
Monmouth	31	MetroAtlantic
Northeastern	32	Colonial
SouthFlorida	33	American
Purdue	34	BigTen
Hofstra	35	Colonial
VirginiaU	36	ACC
WashingtonU	37	PacTwelve
SantaClara	38	WestCoast
LoyolaMarymount	39	WestCoast
WisconsinU	40	BigTen
LSU	41	SEC
StLouis	42	AtlanticTen
NorthwesternU	43	BigTen
Memphis	44	American
Drexel	45	Colonial
OklahomaState	46	BigTwelve
MichiganU	47	BigTen
UNLV	48	MountainWest
NewHampshireU	49	AmericaEast
MississippiState	50	SEC
Navy	51	Patriot
ColoradoU	52	PacTwelve
Marquette	53	BigEast
SouthAlabama	54	SunBelt
UCIrvine	55	BigWest
Lamar	56	Southland
Butler	57	BigEast
Clemson	58	ACC
TCU	59	BigTwelve
LaSalle	60	AtlanticTen
KentState	61	MidAmerican
NCState	62	ACC
Yale	63	Ivy
Baylor	64	BigTwelve
NorthTexas	65	ConferenceUSA
Stetson	66	AtlanticSun
UAB	67	ConferenceUSA
WashingtonState	68	PacTwelve
BostonCollege	69	ACC
TennesseeTech	70	OhioValley
Milwaukee	71	Horizon
MarylandU	72	BigTen
StJosephs	73	AtlanticTen
MinnesotaU	74	BigTen
Furman	75	Southern
UtahU	76	PacTwelve
Bryant	77	Northeast
NewMexicoU	78	MountainWest
SanJoseState	79	MountainWest
Xavier	80	BigEast
Columbia	81	Ivy
Vanderbilt	82	SEC
UALR	83	SunBelt
VirginiaTech	84	ACC
Duquesne	85	AtlanticTen
BostonU	86	Patriot
UNI	87	MissouriValley
LoyolaChicago	88	MissouriValley
Houston	89	American
DelawareU	90	Colonial
SMU	91	American
Belmont	92	OhioValley
LouisianaTech	93	ConferenceUSA
Gonzaga	94	WestCoast
KentuckyU	95	SEC
HighPoint	96	BigSouth
NorthernKentucky	97	Horizon
NorthernColorado	98	BigSky
TexasTech	99	BigTwelve
EasternWashington	100	BigSky
SouthernCalifornia	101	PacTwelve
Drake	102	MissouriValley
Villanova	103	BigEast
WesternMichigan	104	MidAmerican
StephenFAustin	105	Southland
Quinnipiac	106	MetroAtlantic
Brown	107	Ivy
SanDiegoState	108	MountainWest
Pittsburgh	109	ACC
Samford	110	Southern
Toledo	111	MidAmerican
CalStateFullerton	112	BigWest
Binghamton	113	AmericaEast
Radford	114	BigSouth
SacramentoState	115	BigSky
NebraskaU	116	BigTen
Louisville	117	ACC
Dayton	118	AtlanticTen
CalStateNorthridge	119	BigWest
BYU	120	WestCoast
Liberty	121	BigSouth
McNeeseState	122	Southland
KennesawState	123	AtlanticSun
Harvard	124	Ivy
IndianaU	125	BigTen
KansasU	126	BigTwelve
AustinPeay	127	OhioValley
ArkansasU	128	SEC
UtahState	129	MountainWest
GeorgiaU	130	SEC
IUPUI	131	Horizon
EasternKentucky	132	OhioValley
UNCWilmington	133	Colonial
ArizonaState	134	PacTwelve
Dartmouth	135	Ivy
IllinoisState	136	MissouriValley
UNCGreensboro	137	Southern
BallState	138	MidAmerican
MontanaU	139	BigSky
Lehigh	140	Patriot
Providence	141	BigEast
Charlotte	142	ConferenceUSA
TexasRGV	143	WAC
Lipscomb	144	AtlanticSun
VCU	145	AtlanticTen
OldDominion	146	ConferenceUSA
SanFrancisco	147	WestCoast
FloridaAtlantic	148	ConferenceUSA
UCSantaBarbara	149	BigWest
OregonU	150	PacTwelve
WyomingU	151	MountainWest
StFrancis	152	Northeast
WrightState	153	Horizon
Colgate	154	Patriot
SouthDakotaState	155	Summit
MichiganState	156	BigTen
GeorgeWashington	157	AtlanticTen
NorthernArizona	158	BigSky
WesternKentucky	159	ConferenceUSA
ArkansasState	160	SunBelt
TexasState	161	SunBelt
Valparaiso	162	MissouriValley
StonyBrook	163	AmericaEast
VermontU	164	AmericaEast
CentralArkansas	165	Southland
Syracuse	166	ACC
Niagara	167	MetroAtlantic
NewMexicoState	168	WAC
ConnecticutU	169	American
FresnoState	170	MountainWest
JamesMadison	171	Colonial
GeorgeMason	172	AtlanticTen
Bucknell	173	Patriot
Manhattan	174	MetroAtlantic
DePaul	175	BigEast
CoastalCarolina	176	SunBelt
SanDiegoU	177	WestCoast
GeorgiaSouthern	178	SunBelt
LouisianaLafayette	179	SunBelt
BowlingGreen	180	MidAmerican
OklahomaU	181	BigTwelve
MiamiFL	182	ACC
Longwood	183	BigSouth
Elon	184	Colonial
EastCarolina	185	American
AirForce	186	MountainWest
NorthernIllinois	187	MidAmerican
ClevelandState	188	Horizon
IowaU	189	BigTen
CollegeofCharleston	190	Colonial
SamHoustonState	191	Southland
Mercer	192	Southern
AlabamaState	193	Southwestern
BoiseState	194	MountainWest
SoutheastMissouriState	195	OhioValley
WesternCarolina	196	Southern
FairleighDickinson	197	Northeast
PennsylvaniaU	198	Ivy
Seattle	199	WAC
MissouriU	200	SEC
Troy	201	SunBelt
StMarys	202	WestCoast
UCRiverside	203	BigWest
StJohns	204	BigEast
William&Mary	205	Colonial
MassachusettsU	206	AtlanticTen
JacksonvilleState	207	OhioValley
SouthernMississippi	208	ConferenceUSA
CalPoly	209	BigWest
Denver	210	Summit
Howard	211	Southwestern
MiddleTennessee	212	ConferenceUSA
NorthFlorida	213	AtlanticSun
HoustonBaptist	214	Southland
Fordham	215	AtlanticTen
UTEP	216	ConferenceUSA
MissouriState	217	MissouriValley
MaineU	218	AmericaEast
Siena	219	MetroAtlantic
UTSA	220	ConferenceUSA
Cornell	221	Ivy
CentralConnecticut	222	Northeast
OhioU	223	MidAmerican
KansasState	224	BigTwelve
TexasSouthern	225	Southwestern
CalStateBakersfield	226	WAC
Tulsa	227	American
SacredHeart	228	Northeast
NorthDakotaU	229	BigSky
Buffalo	230	MidAmerican
Temple	231	American
SIUEdwardsville	232	OhioValley
IllinoisU	233	BigTen
ColoradoState	234	MountainWest
IndianaState	235	MissouriValley
Canisius	236	MetroAtlantic
Campbell	237	BigSouth
IdahoU	238	BigSky
Pacific	239	WestCoast
OregonState	240	PacTwelve
CentralMichigan	241	MidAmerican
Hartford	242	AmericaEast
Towson	243	Colonial
Lafayette	244	Patriot
Marist	245	MetroAtlantic
NorthwesternState	246	Southland
RhodeIslandU	247	AtlanticTen
Grambling	248	Southwestern
TexasCorpusChristi	249	Southland
ColoradoCollege	250	MountainWest
UNOmaha	251	Summit
Marshall	252	ConferenceUSA
IowaState	253	BigTwelve
UNCAsheville	254	BigSouth
UMassLowell	255	AmericaEast
AbileneChristian	256	Southland
EastTennesseeState	257	Southern
PortlandU	258	WestCoast
AppalachianState	259	SunBelt
MississippiValley	260	Southwestern
HolyCross	261	Patriot
Morehead	262	OhioValley
Chattanooga	263	Southern
SetonHall	264	BigEast
UMKC	265	WAC
GeorgiaState	266	SunBelt
EasternMichigan	267	MidAmerican
American	268	Patriot
CharlestonSouthern	269	BigSouth
TennesseeMartin	270	OhioValley
USCUpstate	271	AtlanticSun
IllinoisChicago	272	Horizon
EasternIllinois	273	OhioValley
UCDavis	274	BigWest
Fairfield	275	MetroAtlantic
NJIT	276	AtlanticSun
Akron	277	MidAmerican
UtahValley	278	WAC
HawaiiU	279	BigWest
SouthernUtah	280	BigSky
WeberState	281	BigSky
OralRoberts	282	Summit
Wofford	283	Southern
LongIsland	284	Northeast
Richmond	285	AtlanticTen
Creighton	286	BigEast
GardnerWebb	287	BigSouth
Rider	288	MetroAtlantic
IncarnateWord	289	Southland
Wagner	290	Northeast
NichollsState	291	Southland
StBonaventure	292	AtlanticTen
AlcornState	293	Southwestern
GrandCanyon	294	WAC
Evansville	295	MissouriValley
Detroit	296	Horizon
Oakland	297	Horizon
JacksonvilleU	298	AtlanticSun
Army	299	Patriot
NorthDakotaState	300	Summit
Davidson	301	AtlanticTen
Presbyterian	302	BigSouth
SELouisiana	303	Southland
SouthDakotaU	304	Summit
UMBC	305	AmericaEast
YoungstownState	306	Horizon
VMI	307	Southern
LouisianaMonroe	308	SunBelt
ArkansasPineBluff	309	Southwestern
Winthrop	310	BigSouth
Albany	311	AmericaEast
IdahoState	312	BigSky
RobertMorris	313	Northeast
FIU	314	ConferenceUSA
NevadaU	315	MountainWest
Citadel	316	Southern
PortlandState	317	BigSky
MountStMary	318	Northeast
LoyolaMD	319	Patriot
MiamiOH	320	MidAmerican
Iona	321	MetroAtlantic
WesternIllinois	322	Summit
GreenBay	323	Horizon
PrairieViewA&M	324	Southwestern
StPeters	325	MetroAtlantic
JacksonState	326	Southwestern
IPFW	327	Summit
SouthernU	328	Southwestern
DelawareState	329	Independent
ChicagoState	330	WAC
SouthCarolinaState	331	Independent
AlabamaA&M	332	Southwestern
Hampton	333	Independent

2017 NCAA Tournament Bracket Simulation 10.2.2017

Here is this week's NCAA Tournament bracket simulation derived from teams' simulated ratings and other data, using actual results of games through Sunday, October 1, and simulated results of games not yet played and of conference tournaments.  The table covers the Top 150 teams in the simulated ARPI rankings.

The code in the "NCAA Seed or Selection" column is:

1 = #1 seed
2 = #2 seed
3 = #3 seed
4 = #4 seed
5 = unseeded Automatic Qualifiers
6 = unseeded at large selections
7 = teams in the Top 60 not getting at large selections
8 = teams in Top 50 disqualified from at large selection due to records below 0.500 (there aren't any, at present)
9 = teams outside, but near, the Top 60 that will have good shots at at large selections if they make it into the Top 60

Regarding the last group (the 9s) of teams, as conference play continues, I'm anticipating that some mid-major teams will drop down out of the Top 60 and some power conference teams will move up into it.  In particular, if they continue to perform as they have so far this season, I think there's a good chance we'll see NC State and Baylor -- and possibly Yale -- move up, in which case they'll all have decent chances for at large selections.  I also wouldn't be surprised to see Michigan move from a 7 to a 6.

As always, take these with a grain of salt.  There's still plenty of time for teams to move around.

Following the table, I'll list other potential candidates for the seed positions.

NCAA Seed or Selection	Automatic Qualifier	ARPI Rank for Formation	Team for Formation
1	AQ	1	SouthCarolinaU
1	AQ	2	Stanford
1	AQ	4	UCF
1	AQ	3	NorthCarolinaU
2	0	7	Duke
2	AQ	5	WestVirginiaU
2	0	6	TexasU
2	AQ	8	Rutgers
3	0	14	FloridaU
3	0	9	UCLA
3	AQ	10	Princeton
3	0	11	TennesseeU
4	0	16	PennState
4	AQ	13	Georgetown
4	0	17	TexasA&M
4	AQ	24	Pepperdine
5	AQ	21	MurrayState
5	AQ	31	Monmouth
5	AQ	28	LongBeachState
5	AQ	23	Rice
5	AQ	32	Northeastern
5	AQ	42	StLouis
5	AQ	27	FloridaGulfCoast
5	AQ	49	NewHampshireU
5	AQ	54	SouthAlabama
5	AQ	51	Navy
5	AQ	56	Lamar
5	AQ	61	KentState
5	AQ	71	Milwaukee
5	AQ	88	LoyolaChicago
5	AQ	100	EasternWashington
5	AQ	75	Furman
5	AQ	96	HighPoint
5	AQ	143	TexasRGV
5	AQ	48	UNLV
5	AQ	70	TennesseeTech
5	AQ	77	Bryant
6	0	30	WakeForest
6	0	20	OhioState
6	0	15	Cincinnati
6	0	18	MississippiU
6	0	36	VirginiaU
6	0	25	AlabamaU
6	0	12	FloridaState
6	0	22	ArizonaU
6	0	41	LSU
6	0	19	CaliforniaU
6	0	29	Auburn
6	0	26	NotreDame
6	0	33	SouthFlorida
6	0	50	MississippiState
6	0	46	OklahomaState
6	0	57	Butler
6	0	34	Purdue
6	0	40	WisconsinU
6	0	43	NorthwesternU
6	0	35	Hofstra
6	0	37	WashingtonU
6	0	38	SantaClara
6	0	39	LoyolaMarymount
6	0	44	Memphis
6	0	45	Drexel
7	0	47	MichiganU
7	0	52	ColoradoU
7	0	55	UCIrvine
7	0	58	Clemson
7	0	53	Marquette
7	0	59	TCU
7	0	60	LaSalle
9	0	62	NCState
9	0	64	Baylor
9	0	63	Yale
	0	67	UAB
	0	68	WashingtonState
	0	72	MarylandU
	0	80	Xavier
	0	66	Stetson
	0	69	BostonCollege
	0	76	UtahU
	0	74	MinnesotaU
	0	89	Houston
	0	91	SMU
	0	94	Gonzaga
	0	73	StJosephs
	0	81	Columbia
	0	83	UALR
	0	90	DelawareU
	0	99	TexasTech
	0	82	Vanderbilt
	0	95	KentuckyU
	0	101	SouthernCalifornia
	0	103	Villanova
	0	84	VirginiaTech
	0	86	BostonU
	0	92	Belmont
	0	107	Brown
	0	109	Pittsburgh
	0	120	BYU
	0	79	SanJoseState
	0	135	Dartmouth
	0	65	NorthTexas
	0	87	UNI
	0	93	LouisianaTech
	0	98	NorthernColorado
	0	124	Harvard
	0	130	GeorgiaU
	0	133	UNCWilmington
	0	134	ArizonaState
	0	116	NebraskaU
	0	117	Louisville
	0	125	IndianaU
	0	127	AustinPeay
	0	78	NewMexicoU
	0	112	CalStateFullerton
	0	149	UCSantaBarbara
	0	150	OregonU
	0	114	Radford
	0	126	KansasU
	0	139	MontanaU
	0	142	Charlotte
	0	145	VCU
	0	147	SanFrancisco
	0	102	Drake
	0	115	SacramentoState
	0	128	ArkansasU
	0	129	UtahState
	0	85	Duquesne
	0	110	Samford
	0	111	Toledo
	0	113	Binghamton
	0	141	Providence
	0	119	CalStateNorthridge
	0	97	NorthernKentucky
	0	104	WesternMichigan
	0	105	StephenFAustin
	0	108	SanDiegoState
	0	118	Dayton
	0	123	KennesawState
	0	136	IllinoisState
	0	144	Lipscomb
	0	122	McNeeseState
	0	132	EasternKentucky
	0	138	BallState
	0	140	Lehigh
	0	146	OldDominion
	0	148	FloridaAtlantic
	0	106	Quinnipiac
	0	131	IUPUI
	0	121	Liberty
	0	137	UNCGreensboro

Other potential seeds:

#1 seed:  Duke, Rutgers, UCLA, West Virginia

#2 seed:  UCLA, Tennessee, Florida, Penn State, Texas A&M

#3 seed:  Texas A&M, Penn State, Cincinnati, Mississippi, Florida State, Ohio State, Wake Forest

#4 seed:  Cincinnati, Florida State, Ohio State, Mississippi, Wake Forest, Arizona, California

2017 RPI Ranks 9.25.2017

Here are teams' ARPI ranks based on games played through Sunday, September 24.  They're the same as the ranks the NCAA published today.  Last week, the NCAA had two errors in its RPI data base, but it corrected those errors this week.

For some reason, the NCAA has not yet, this year, published its actual ratings as distinguished from the rankings based on the ratings.  In recent years, it's published the actual ratings and other information about the teams' seasons at the RPI Archive.  Hopefully, the absence of these publications so far this year does not represent a change in the NCAA's policy and they will start publishing this information soon.

Starting with this week's report, I'm indicating teams whose ranks are within the range, at this stage of the season, for possible #1, #2, #3, and #4 seeds in the NCAA Tournament.  Using #1 seeds as an example, the teams within this range are those currently ranked #1 through #28.  What this means is that over the last 10 years, the most poorly ranked team at this stage of the season to end up with a #1 seed was ranked #28.

I'm also indicating teams whose ranks make them potential "bubble" teams for at large selections.  Teams ranked better than the "good" end of the bubble at this stage of the season (the teams ranked #10 or better), over the last 10 years, always have gotten at large selections.  Teams ranked poorer than the "bad" end of the bubble at this stage of the season (the teams ranked #149 or poorer), over the last 10 years, never have gotten at large selections.

I'll update these ranges over the coming weeks.  They'll get smaller week by week.