The table includes the historic seed candidate ranges and at large "bubble" group as of this stage of the season.
Monday, October 30, 2017
2017 RPI Ranks 10.30.2017
Below are teams' current Adjusted RPI ranks, based on games played through Sunday, October 29. Starting with ranks in the 90s and on to poorer ranks, there are some differences from the NCAA's ranks published the morning of October 30. These differences are due to the NCAA's RPI data base not including the October 28 Atlantic Ten Conference Tournament game @ Duquesne 1 v George Washington 0. Whether it was the teams or the conference that took on responsibility to enter the result of that game, they weren't successful so the NCAA didn't have the result. The NCAA staff is aware of this problem and I'm confident they will fix it. In the meantime, my numbers should be exactly correct.
The table includes the historic seed candidate ranges and at large "bubble" group as of this stage of the season.
The table includes the historic seed candidate ranges and at large "bubble" group as of this stage of the season.
2017 Simulated RPI Ranks 10.30.2017
Here are my simulated final ARPI rankings based on actual games played through Sunday, October 29 and the simulated results of all remaining games including conference tournament games. Since all the conference tournament brackets now are official, I no longer use simulated tournament brackets, but rather provide simulated conference tournament results only for tournament games not yet played.
| Team | ARPI Rank | Conference |
| SouthCarolinaU | 1 | SEC |
| Stanford | 2 | PacTwelve |
| NorthCarolinaU | 3 | ACC |
| Duke | 4 | ACC |
| WestVirginiaU | 5 | BigTwelve |
| UCF | 6 | American |
| TexasA&M | 7 | SEC |
| UCLA | 8 | PacTwelve |
| TexasU | 9 | BigTwelve |
| Princeton | 10 | Ivy |
| PennState | 11 | BigTen |
| Rutgers | 12 | BigTen |
| TennesseeU | 13 | SEC |
| OhioState | 14 | BigTen |
| NotreDame | 15 | ACC |
| Pepperdine | 16 | WestCoast |
| FloridaState | 17 | ACC |
| SouthernCalifornia | 18 | PacTwelve |
| Rice | 19 | ConferenceUSA |
| SouthFlorida | 20 | American |
| FloridaU | 21 | SEC |
| MurrayState | 22 | OhioValley |
| VirginiaU | 23 | ACC |
| ArizonaU | 24 | PacTwelve |
| WisconsinU | 25 | BigTen |
| Hofstra | 26 | Colonial |
| Georgetown | 27 | BigEast |
| CaliforniaU | 28 | PacTwelve |
| AlabamaU | 29 | SEC |
| SantaClara | 30 | WestCoast |
| NCState | 31 | ACC |
| Auburn | 32 | SEC |
| OklahomaState | 33 | BigTwelve |
| FloridaGulfCoast | 34 | AtlanticSun |
| Monmouth | 35 | MetroAtlantic |
| Clemson | 36 | ACC |
| NorthwesternU | 37 | BigTen |
| MississippiU | 38 | SEC |
| ColoradoU | 39 | PacTwelve |
| SanJoseState | 40 | MountainWest |
| Drake | 41 | MissouriValley |
| WakeForest | 42 | ACC |
| Cincinnati | 43 | American |
| Butler | 44 | BigEast |
| Vanderbilt | 45 | SEC |
| Memphis | 46 | American |
| TCU | 47 | BigTwelve |
| MississippiState | 48 | SEC |
| LaSalle | 49 | AtlanticTen |
| Drexel | 50 | Colonial |
| MinnesotaU | 51 | BigTen |
| WashingtonState | 52 | PacTwelve |
| Navy | 53 | Patriot |
| Marquette | 54 | BigEast |
| ArkansasU | 55 | SEC |
| UCIrvine | 56 | BigWest |
| VirginiaTech | 57 | ACC |
| BostonCollege | 58 | ACC |
| LSU | 59 | SEC |
| NorthTexas | 60 | ConferenceUSA |
| SouthAlabama | 61 | SunBelt |
| Milwaukee | 62 | Horizon |
| Yale | 63 | Ivy |
| MichiganU | 64 | BigTen |
| StLouis | 65 | AtlanticTen |
| LouisianaTech | 66 | ConferenceUSA |
| Columbia | 67 | Ivy |
| WashingtonU | 68 | PacTwelve |
| Baylor | 69 | BigTwelve |
| Purdue | 70 | BigTen |
| StJosephs | 71 | AtlanticTen |
| Northeastern | 72 | Colonial |
| Samford | 73 | Southern |
| LoyolaMarymount | 74 | WestCoast |
| Lamar | 75 | Southland |
| TennesseeTech | 76 | OhioValley |
| TexasTech | 77 | BigTwelve |
| NebraskaU | 78 | BigTen |
| LongBeachState | 79 | BigWest |
| Louisville | 80 | ACC |
| UAB | 81 | ConferenceUSA |
| KentState | 82 | MidAmerican |
| SMU | 83 | American |
| EasternWashington | 84 | BigSky |
| BYU | 85 | WestCoast |
| Providence | 86 | BigEast |
| Brown | 87 | Ivy |
| MarylandU | 88 | BigTen |
| SanDiegoState | 89 | MountainWest |
| UNI | 90 | MissouriValley |
| Furman | 91 | Southern |
| CalStateNorthridge | 92 | BigWest |
| IndianaU | 93 | BigTen |
| SanDiegoU | 94 | WestCoast |
| IowaU | 95 | BigTen |
| Bucknell | 96 | Patriot |
| MissouriU | 97 | SEC |
| MontanaU | 98 | BigSky |
| KansasU | 99 | BigTwelve |
| OregonU | 100 | PacTwelve |
| OldDominion | 101 | ConferenceUSA |
| UNLV | 102 | MountainWest |
| ArizonaState | 103 | PacTwelve |
| TexasState | 104 | SunBelt |
| Syracuse | 105 | ACC |
| DePaul | 106 | BigEast |
| BostonU | 107 | Patriot |
| NorthernKentucky | 108 | Horizon |
| Xavier | 109 | BigEast |
| Lipscomb | 110 | AtlanticSun |
| Belmont | 111 | OhioValley |
| UtahU | 112 | PacTwelve |
| Liberty | 113 | BigSouth |
| ConnecticutU | 114 | American |
| Houston | 115 | American |
| HighPoint | 116 | BigSouth |
| LoyolaChicago | 117 | MissouriValley |
| Bryant | 118 | Northeast |
| NewHampshireU | 119 | AmericaEast |
| EasternKentucky | 120 | OhioValley |
| CalStateFullerton | 121 | BigWest |
| KentuckyU | 122 | SEC |
| VCU | 123 | AtlanticTen |
| BoiseState | 124 | MountainWest |
| NorthernColorado | 125 | BigSky |
| Duquesne | 126 | AtlanticTen |
| William&Mary | 127 | Colonial |
| MichiganState | 128 | BigTen |
| StephenFAustin | 129 | Southland |
| SouthDakotaState | 130 | Summit |
| FresnoState | 131 | MountainWest |
| GeorgiaU | 132 | SEC |
| UCSantaBarbara | 133 | BigWest |
| Stetson | 134 | AtlanticSun |
| McNeeseState | 135 | Southland |
| IUPUI | 136 | Horizon |
| GeorgeMason | 137 | AtlanticTen |
| DelawareU | 138 | Colonial |
| SoutheastMissouriState | 139 | OhioValley |
| Harvard | 140 | Ivy |
| NewMexicoU | 141 | MountainWest |
| ArkansasState | 142 | SunBelt |
| UNCGreensboro | 143 | Southern |
| Elon | 144 | Colonial |
| UMKC | 145 | WAC |
| Dayton | 146 | AtlanticTen |
| Gonzaga | 147 | WestCoast |
| Charlotte | 148 | ConferenceUSA |
| UtahState | 149 | MountainWest |
| Colgate | 150 | Patriot |
| Longwood | 151 | BigSouth |
| UALR | 152 | SunBelt |
| CentralConnecticut | 153 | Northeast |
| KennesawState | 154 | AtlanticSun |
| Troy | 155 | SunBelt |
| BallState | 156 | MidAmerican |
| StonyBrook | 157 | AmericaEast |
| GeorgeWashington | 158 | AtlanticTen |
| UNCWilmington | 159 | Colonial |
| FloridaAtlantic | 160 | ConferenceUSA |
| PennsylvaniaU | 161 | Ivy |
| Toledo | 162 | MidAmerican |
| Binghamton | 163 | AmericaEast |
| JamesMadison | 164 | Colonial |
| BowlingGreen | 165 | MidAmerican |
| StJohns | 166 | BigEast |
| MissouriState | 167 | MissouriValley |
| CollegeofCharleston | 168 | Colonial |
| IllinoisState | 169 | MissouriValley |
| Lehigh | 170 | Patriot |
| WesternKentucky | 171 | ConferenceUSA |
| AustinPeay | 172 | OhioValley |
| Quinnipiac | 173 | MetroAtlantic |
| EastCarolina | 174 | American |
| Pittsburgh | 175 | ACC |
| AirForce | 176 | MountainWest |
| HoustonBaptist | 177 | Southland |
| IowaState | 178 | BigTwelve |
| Dartmouth | 179 | Ivy |
| WrightState | 180 | Horizon |
| Villanova | 181 | BigEast |
| Siena | 182 | MetroAtlantic |
| Manhattan | 183 | MetroAtlantic |
| SanFrancisco | 184 | WestCoast |
| OregonState | 185 | PacTwelve |
| MassachusettsU | 186 | AtlanticTen |
| MiamiFL | 187 | ACC |
| WyomingU | 188 | MountainWest |
| ClevelandState | 189 | Horizon |
| Valparaiso | 190 | MissouriValley |
| CalPoly | 191 | BigWest |
| WesternCarolina | 192 | Southern |
| NorthFlorida | 193 | AtlanticSun |
| FairleighDickinson | 194 | Northeast |
| MiddleTennessee | 195 | ConferenceUSA |
| TexasRGV | 196 | WAC |
| Temple | 197 | American |
| Radford | 198 | BigSouth |
| OklahomaU | 199 | BigTwelve |
| SacramentoState | 200 | BigSky |
| StFrancis | 201 | Northeast |
| ColoradoCollege | 202 | MountainWest |
| StMarys | 203 | WestCoast |
| WesternMichigan | 204 | MidAmerican |
| CoastalCarolina | 205 | SunBelt |
| TexasCorpusChristi | 206 | Southland |
| UtahValley | 207 | WAC |
| JacksonvilleState | 208 | OhioValley |
| OhioU | 209 | MidAmerican |
| UCRiverside | 210 | BigWest |
| SouthernMississippi | 211 | ConferenceUSA |
| VermontU | 212 | AmericaEast |
| NorthernIllinois | 213 | MidAmerican |
| Towson | 214 | Colonial |
| GeorgiaSouthern | 215 | SunBelt |
| Cornell | 216 | Ivy |
| IllinoisU | 217 | BigTen |
| KansasState | 218 | BigTwelve |
| AlabamaState | 219 | Southwestern |
| Creighton | 220 | BigEast |
| CentralArkansas | 221 | Southland |
| SIUEdwardsville | 222 | OhioValley |
| PortlandU | 223 | WestCoast |
| Tulsa | 224 | American |
| UCDavis | 225 | BigWest |
| Campbell | 226 | BigSouth |
| Buffalo | 227 | MidAmerican |
| IdahoU | 228 | BigSky |
| ColoradoState | 229 | MountainWest |
| Howard | 230 | Southwestern |
| IndianaState | 231 | MissouriValley |
| Fordham | 232 | AtlanticTen |
| AbileneChristian | 233 | Southland |
| Denver | 234 | Summit |
| UMassLowell | 235 | AmericaEast |
| CentralMichigan | 236 | MidAmerican |
| Marshall | 237 | ConferenceUSA |
| NorthernArizona | 238 | BigSky |
| Mercer | 239 | Southern |
| Marist | 240 | MetroAtlantic |
| Pacific | 241 | WestCoast |
| Niagara | 242 | MetroAtlantic |
| NorthDakotaU | 243 | BigSky |
| SamHoustonState | 244 | Southland |
| Seattle | 245 | WAC |
| UTEP | 246 | ConferenceUSA |
| Hartford | 247 | AmericaEast |
| NJIT | 248 | AtlanticSun |
| Fairfield | 249 | MetroAtlantic |
| SacredHeart | 250 | Northeast |
| UTSA | 251 | ConferenceUSA |
| AppalachianState | 252 | SunBelt |
| LouisianaLafayette | 253 | SunBelt |
| TennesseeMartin | 254 | OhioValley |
| EastTennesseeState | 255 | Southern |
| NewMexicoState | 256 | WAC |
| OralRoberts | 257 | Summit |
| Canisius | 258 | MetroAtlantic |
| MaineU | 259 | AmericaEast |
| Lafayette | 260 | Patriot |
| EasternMichigan | 261 | MidAmerican |
| Rider | 262 | MetroAtlantic |
| HawaiiU | 263 | BigWest |
| RhodeIslandU | 264 | AtlanticTen |
| Albany | 265 | AmericaEast |
| Evansville | 266 | MissouriValley |
| WeberState | 267 | BigSky |
| Chattanooga | 268 | Southern |
| UNCAsheville | 269 | BigSouth |
| IllinoisChicago | 270 | Horizon |
| SouthernUtah | 271 | BigSky |
| UNOmaha | 272 | Summit |
| PrairieViewA&M | 273 | Southwestern |
| Morehead | 274 | OhioValley |
| NorthDakotaState | 275 | Summit |
| JacksonvilleU | 276 | AtlanticSun |
| HolyCross | 277 | Patriot |
| GeorgiaState | 278 | SunBelt |
| Richmond | 279 | AtlanticTen |
| UMBC | 280 | AmericaEast |
| Akron | 281 | MidAmerican |
| CalStateBakersfield | 282 | WAC |
| RobertMorris | 283 | Northeast |
| EasternIllinois | 284 | OhioValley |
| StBonaventure | 285 | AtlanticTen |
| GardnerWebb | 286 | BigSouth |
| SetonHall | 287 | BigEast |
| CharlestonSouthern | 288 | BigSouth |
| Grambling | 289 | Southwestern |
| VMI | 290 | Southern |
| Army | 291 | Patriot |
| PortlandState | 292 | BigSky |
| TexasSouthern | 293 | Southwestern |
| Davidson | 294 | AtlanticTen |
| LouisianaMonroe | 295 | SunBelt |
| Winthrop | 296 | BigSouth |
| USCUpstate | 297 | AtlanticSun |
| SELouisiana | 298 | Southland |
| NorthwesternState | 299 | Southland |
| MississippiValley | 300 | Southwestern |
| IncarnateWord | 301 | Southland |
| GrandCanyon | 302 | WAC |
| American | 303 | Patriot |
| Oakland | 304 | Horizon |
| SouthDakotaU | 305 | Summit |
| LongIsland | 306 | Northeast |
| NichollsState | 307 | Southland |
| Wofford | 308 | Southern |
| Presbyterian | 309 | BigSouth |
| MiamiOH | 310 | MidAmerican |
| Wagner | 311 | Northeast |
| Iona | 312 | MetroAtlantic |
| IdahoState | 313 | BigSky |
| GreenBay | 314 | Horizon |
| MountStMary | 315 | Northeast |
| FIU | 316 | ConferenceUSA |
| Detroit | 317 | Horizon |
| LoyolaMD | 318 | Patriot |
| NevadaU | 319 | MountainWest |
| Citadel | 320 | Southern |
| YoungstownState | 321 | Horizon |
| AlcornState | 322 | Southwestern |
| WesternIllinois | 323 | Summit |
| StPeters | 324 | MetroAtlantic |
| ArkansasPineBluff | 325 | Southwestern |
| JacksonState | 326 | Southwestern |
| IPFW | 327 | Summit |
| ChicagoState | 328 | WAC |
| DelawareState | 329 | Independent |
| SouthCarolinaState | 330 | Independent |
| SouthernU | 331 | Southwestern |
| AlabamaA&M | 332 | Southwestern |
| Hampton | 333 | Independent |
2017 NCAA Tournament Bracket Simulation 10.30.2017
Below are my simulation's current NCAA Tournament bracket decisions, derived from the actual results of games played through Sunday, October 29, 2017 including conference tournament games, the official conference tournament brackets, and the simulated results of all games not yet played including future conference tournament games.
On reviewing the simulation, I see a definite question the Women's Soccer Committee will have to deal with this year. The question comes up because there are teams that meet several standards for which teams that have met those standards over the last 10 years always have gotten at large selections. These standards involve very good Non-Conference RPI ratings and ranks. On the other hand, the teams are from the top conferences and have conference finishing positions for which teams over the last 10 years never have gotten at large selections. These are profiles the Committee has not seen over the last 10 years, and the Committee is going to have to decide how to deal with them.
In the table below, I've arranged the teams in order of the simulated decisions and, within the group getting at large selections and within the group not getting at large selections, in the order in which they seem to rank for at large selection purposes. Thus the last teams on the list that the simulation gives selections to are the weakest for selection according to the simulation and the first teams the simulation does not give selections to are the strongest for selection.
I've also included in the list additional teams ranked from #63 to 80 (61 and 62 are automatic qualifiers), although history says that at this point in the season they are too poorly ranked to end up getting at large selections.
Here is the key to the NCAA Seed or Selection column:
1 = #1 seed
2 = #2 seed
3 = #3 seed
4 = #4 seed
5 = unseeded automatic qualifier
6 = unseeded at large selection
7 = top 60 team, but no at large selection
8 = top 60 team disqualified due to record under 0.500 (there aren't any)
On reviewing the simulation, I see a definite question the Women's Soccer Committee will have to deal with this year. The question comes up because there are teams that meet several standards for which teams that have met those standards over the last 10 years always have gotten at large selections. These standards involve very good Non-Conference RPI ratings and ranks. On the other hand, the teams are from the top conferences and have conference finishing positions for which teams over the last 10 years never have gotten at large selections. These are profiles the Committee has not seen over the last 10 years, and the Committee is going to have to decide how to deal with them.
In the table below, I've arranged the teams in order of the simulated decisions and, within the group getting at large selections and within the group not getting at large selections, in the order in which they seem to rank for at large selection purposes. Thus the last teams on the list that the simulation gives selections to are the weakest for selection according to the simulation and the first teams the simulation does not give selections to are the strongest for selection.
I've also included in the list additional teams ranked from #63 to 80 (61 and 62 are automatic qualifiers), although history says that at this point in the season they are too poorly ranked to end up getting at large selections.
Here is the key to the NCAA Seed or Selection column:
1 = #1 seed
2 = #2 seed
3 = #3 seed
4 = #4 seed
5 = unseeded automatic qualifier
6 = unseeded at large selection
7 = top 60 team, but no at large selection
8 = top 60 team disqualified due to record under 0.500 (there aren't any)
| NCAA Seed or Selection | Automatic Qualifier | ARPI Rank for Formation | Team for Formation |
| 1 | AQ | 1 | SouthCarolinaU |
| 1 | 0 | 4 | Duke |
| 1 | AQ | 2 | Stanford |
| 1 | AQ | 3 | NorthCarolinaU |
| 2 | AQ | 6 | UCF |
| 2 | AQ | 5 | WestVirginiaU |
| 2 | 0 | 7 | TexasA&M |
| 2 | 0 | 8 | UCLA |
| 3 | AQ | 11 | PennState |
| 3 | 0 | 15 | NotreDame |
| 3 | 0 | 12 | Rutgers |
| 3 | 0 | 14 | OhioState |
| 4 | 0 | 21 | FloridaU |
| 4 | 0 | 10 | Princeton |
| 4 | 0 | 13 | TennesseeU |
| 4 | 0 | 9 | TexasU |
| 5 | AQ | 16 | Pepperdine |
| 5 | AQ | 27 | Georgetown |
| 5 | AQ | 22 | MurrayState |
| 5 | AQ | 26 | Hofstra |
| 5 | AQ | 19 | Rice |
| 5 | AQ | 34 | FloridaGulfCoast |
| 5 | AQ | 35 | Monmouth |
| 5 | AQ | 41 | Drake |
| 5 | AQ | 53 | Navy |
| 5 | AQ | 49 | LaSalle |
| 5 | AQ | 56 | UCIrvine |
| 5 | AQ | 40 | SanJoseState |
| 5 | AQ | 61 | SouthAlabama |
| 5 | AQ | 62 | Milwaukee |
| 5 | AQ | 82 | KentState |
| 5 | AQ | 75 | Lamar |
| 5 | 0 | 67 | Columbia |
| 5 | AQ | 84 | EasternWashington |
| 5 | AQ | 130 | SouthDakotaState |
| 5 | AQ | 145 | UMKC |
| 5 | AQ | 73 | Samford |
| 5 | AQ | 113 | Liberty |
| 5 | AQ | 118 | Bryant |
| 5 | AQ | 157 | StonyBrook |
| 5 | AQ | 219 | AlabamaState |
| 6 | 0 | 23 | VirginiaU |
| 6 | 0 | 20 | SouthFlorida |
| 6 | 0 | 18 | SouthernCalifornia |
| 6 | 0 | 17 | FloridaState |
| 6 | 0 | 25 | WisconsinU |
| 6 | 0 | 29 | AlabamaU |
| 6 | 0 | 33 | OklahomaState |
| 6 | 0 | 42 | WakeForest |
| 6 | 0 | 31 | NCState |
| 6 | 0 | 32 | Auburn |
| 6 | 0 | 44 | Butler |
| 6 | 0 | 24 | ArizonaU |
| 6 | 0 | 28 | CaliforniaU |
| 6 | 0 | 30 | SantaClara |
| 6 | 0 | 43 | Cincinnati |
| 6 | 0 | 38 | MississippiU |
| 6 | 0 | 45 | Vanderbilt |
| 6 | 0 | 36 | Clemson |
| 6 | 0 | 37 | NorthwesternU |
| 6 | 0 | 39 | ColoradoU |
| 6 | 0 | 46 | Memphis |
| 6 | 0 | 51 | MinnesotaU |
| 6 | 0 | 47 | TCU |
| 7 | 0 | 59 | LSU |
| 7 | 0 | 48 | MississippiState |
| 7 | 0 | 55 | ArkansasU |
| 7 | 0 | 52 | WashingtonState |
| 7 | 0 | 50 | Drexel |
| 7 | 0 | 54 | Marquette |
| 7 | 0 | 57 | VirginiaTech |
| 7 | 0 | 58 | BostonCollege |
| 7 | 0 | 60 | NorthTexas |
| 0 | 63 | Yale | |
| 0 | 64 | MichiganU | |
| 0 | 65 | StLouis | |
| 0 | 66 | LouisianaTech | |
| 0 | 68 | WashingtonU | |
| 0 | 69 | Baylor | |
| 0 | 70 | Purdue | |
| 0 | 71 | StJosephs | |
| 0 | 72 | Northeastern | |
| 0 | 74 | LoyolaMarymount | |
| 0 | 76 | TennesseeTech | |
| 0 | 77 | TexasTech | |
| 0 | 78 | NebraskaU | |
| 0 | 79 | LongBeachState | |
| 0 | 80 | Louisville |
Other potential seeds:
#1: Texas A&M, UCF, UCLA (a stretch)
#2: Penn State, Ohio State
#3: Texas, Tennessee, Florida, Virginia, South Florida
#4: Virginia, South Florida, Wisconsin, Southern California, Arizona, Florida State
Monday, October 23, 2017
2017 RPI Ranks 10.23.2017
Here are my Adjusted RPI ranks based on games played through Sunday, October 22.
If you compare my ranks to the NCAA RPI ranks published the morning of October 23, you may notice some differences. These are due to three NCAA data errors. One of the errors was the NCAA's data not including a game that had been cancelled due to weather and later re-scheduled. This was the teams' fault, as they deleted the cancelled game from the NCAA's schedule but did not add it back in when they re-scheduled it. Two of the errors have to do with what the NCAA's RPI software does when two opponents, when entering their game into the NCAA's schedule, have entered it differently. The RPI software has a problem with dual game entries, and this week one game got entered twice into the RPI calculations and the other game, which was a tie, got entered as a win/loss. I've notified the NCAA of these problems and, if they follow their usual course, they'll check to see whether I'm right and then will make corrections.
If you use All White Kit's "real time" website, you also may notice that sometimes they and I will have two teams inverted. This is not due to data inconsistencies or programming errors, rather it's due to statistical rounding conventions and how we rank teams when their ratings are equal to a certain number of decimal places. Our rankings, if the ratings are carried to enough decimal places (mine are to 12 decimal places, since that's Excel's default), are identical. When the NCAA's data is error free, my rankings have matched theirs exactly this year, so I have a pretty high degree of confidence that my rankings will match theirs once they correct their current data errors.
As in preceding weeks, the rankings table shows which teams are potential #1, 2, 3, and 4 seed candidates as of this stage of the season and also which teams are in the at large "bubble" as of this stage. As of this week, the "poorly ranked" edge of the bubble has narrowed considerably, to #62, and is getting close to the ultimate edge of the bubble, which is #57. These seeding and at large ranges are based on the last 10 years' experience, so they're not absolute ranges, simply what's happened over the last 10 years.
If you compare my ranks to the NCAA RPI ranks published the morning of October 23, you may notice some differences. These are due to three NCAA data errors. One of the errors was the NCAA's data not including a game that had been cancelled due to weather and later re-scheduled. This was the teams' fault, as they deleted the cancelled game from the NCAA's schedule but did not add it back in when they re-scheduled it. Two of the errors have to do with what the NCAA's RPI software does when two opponents, when entering their game into the NCAA's schedule, have entered it differently. The RPI software has a problem with dual game entries, and this week one game got entered twice into the RPI calculations and the other game, which was a tie, got entered as a win/loss. I've notified the NCAA of these problems and, if they follow their usual course, they'll check to see whether I'm right and then will make corrections.
If you use All White Kit's "real time" website, you also may notice that sometimes they and I will have two teams inverted. This is not due to data inconsistencies or programming errors, rather it's due to statistical rounding conventions and how we rank teams when their ratings are equal to a certain number of decimal places. Our rankings, if the ratings are carried to enough decimal places (mine are to 12 decimal places, since that's Excel's default), are identical. When the NCAA's data is error free, my rankings have matched theirs exactly this year, so I have a pretty high degree of confidence that my rankings will match theirs once they correct their current data errors.
As in preceding weeks, the rankings table shows which teams are potential #1, 2, 3, and 4 seed candidates as of this stage of the season and also which teams are in the at large "bubble" as of this stage. As of this week, the "poorly ranked" edge of the bubble has narrowed considerably, to #62, and is getting close to the ultimate edge of the bubble, which is #57. These seeding and at large ranges are based on the last 10 years' experience, so they're not absolute ranges, simply what's happened over the last 10 years.
2017 Simulated RPI Ranks 10.23.2017
Here are my simulated end-of-season ARPI ranks using actual game results for games played through Sunday, October 22, 2017, and simulated results for games not yet played. The simulated results are based on opponents' actual Adjusted RPIs as of the completion of Sunday's games, adjusted based on game locations; on the actual conference tournament brackets (with simulated results) for those conferences that completed regular season play as of Sunday's games; and on simulated conference tournament brackets for the remaining conferences that play conference tournaments.
| Team | ARPI Rank | Conference |
| SouthCarolinaU | 1 | SEC |
| Stanford | 2 | PacTwelve |
| NorthCarolinaU | 3 | ACC |
| Duke | 4 | ACC |
| UCF | 5 | American |
| WestVirginiaU | 6 | BigTwelve |
| TexasU | 7 | BigTwelve |
| TexasA&M | 8 | SEC |
| PennState | 9 | BigTen |
| UCLA | 10 | PacTwelve |
| Princeton | 11 | Ivy |
| FloridaState | 12 | ACC |
| Rutgers | 13 | BigTen |
| Pepperdine | 14 | WestCoast |
| TennesseeU | 15 | SEC |
| Rice | 16 | ConferenceUSA |
| OhioState | 17 | BigTen |
| AlabamaU | 18 | SEC |
| NotreDame | 19 | ACC |
| MurrayState | 20 | OhioValley |
| FloridaU | 21 | SEC |
| Hofstra | 22 | Colonial |
| CaliforniaU | 23 | PacTwelve |
| Auburn | 24 | SEC |
| Georgetown | 25 | BigEast |
| SouthFlorida | 26 | American |
| ArizonaU | 27 | PacTwelve |
| FloridaGulfCoast | 28 | AtlanticSun |
| SouthernCalifornia | 29 | PacTwelve |
| VirginiaU | 30 | ACC |
| NCState | 31 | ACC |
| SantaClara | 32 | WestCoast |
| MississippiU | 33 | SEC |
| OklahomaState | 34 | BigTwelve |
| Monmouth | 35 | MetroAtlantic |
| Memphis | 36 | American |
| StLouis | 37 | AtlanticTen |
| WakeForest | 38 | ACC |
| WisconsinU | 39 | BigTen |
| MinnesotaU | 40 | BigTen |
| SanJoseState | 41 | MountainWest |
| Clemson | 42 | ACC |
| Cincinnati | 43 | American |
| LSU | 44 | SEC |
| NorthwesternU | 45 | BigTen |
| ColoradoU | 46 | PacTwelve |
| Baylor | 47 | BigTwelve |
| MississippiState | 48 | SEC |
| Butler | 49 | BigEast |
| WashingtonU | 50 | PacTwelve |
| Drake | 51 | MissouriValley |
| Columbia | 52 | Ivy |
| VirginiaTech | 53 | ACC |
| Drexel | 54 | Colonial |
| Navy | 55 | Patriot |
| Marquette | 56 | BigEast |
| SouthAlabama | 57 | SunBelt |
| BostonCollege | 58 | ACC |
| WashingtonState | 59 | PacTwelve |
| LaSalle | 60 | AtlanticTen |
| UCIrvine | 61 | BigWest |
| LouisianaTech | 62 | ConferenceUSA |
| Vanderbilt | 63 | SEC |
| NorthTexas | 64 | ConferenceUSA |
| TCU | 65 | BigTwelve |
| MichiganU | 66 | BigTen |
| Milwaukee | 67 | Horizon |
| Purdue | 68 | BigTen |
| Northeastern | 69 | Colonial |
| Lamar | 70 | Southland |
| ArkansasU | 71 | SEC |
| LoyolaMarymount | 72 | WestCoast |
| Samford | 73 | Southern |
| Providence | 74 | BigEast |
| KentState | 75 | MidAmerican |
| UtahU | 76 | PacTwelve |
| SMU | 77 | American |
| TennesseeTech | 78 | OhioValley |
| EasternWashington | 79 | BigSky |
| MontanaU | 80 | BigSky |
| NebraskaU | 81 | BigTen |
| Louisville | 82 | ACC |
| StJosephs | 83 | AtlanticTen |
| UAB | 84 | ConferenceUSA |
| Yale | 85 | Ivy |
| Furman | 86 | Southern |
| LongBeachState | 87 | BigWest |
| Brown | 88 | Ivy |
| TexasTech | 89 | BigTwelve |
| Belmont | 90 | OhioValley |
| MarylandU | 91 | BigTen |
| KansasU | 92 | BigTwelve |
| Stetson | 93 | AtlanticSun |
| UNI | 94 | MissouriValley |
| NewHampshireU | 95 | AmericaEast |
| NewMexicoU | 96 | MountainWest |
| IowaU | 97 | BigTen |
| Gonzaga | 98 | WestCoast |
| BYU | 99 | WestCoast |
| UNLV | 100 | MountainWest |
| Houston | 101 | American |
| OldDominion | 102 | ConferenceUSA |
| Bucknell | 103 | Patriot |
| Lipscomb | 104 | AtlanticSun |
| CalStateNorthridge | 105 | BigWest |
| NorthernKentucky | 106 | Horizon |
| Xavier | 107 | BigEast |
| IndianaU | 108 | BigTen |
| HighPoint | 109 | BigSouth |
| Liberty | 110 | BigSouth |
| GeorgiaU | 111 | SEC |
| TexasState | 112 | SunBelt |
| LoyolaChicago | 113 | MissouriValley |
| Bryant | 114 | Northeast |
| UtahState | 115 | MountainWest |
| DePaul | 116 | BigEast |
| GeorgeMason | 117 | AtlanticTen |
| MichiganState | 118 | BigTen |
| BostonU | 119 | Patriot |
| ConnecticutU | 120 | American |
| Syracuse | 121 | ACC |
| Duquesne | 122 | AtlanticTen |
| NorthernColorado | 123 | BigSky |
| EasternKentucky | 124 | OhioValley |
| UCSantaBarbara | 125 | BigWest |
| SouthDakotaState | 126 | Summit |
| JamesMadison | 127 | Colonial |
| ArizonaState | 128 | PacTwelve |
| OregonU | 129 | PacTwelve |
| IllinoisState | 130 | MissouriValley |
| CalStateFullerton | 131 | BigWest |
| SanDiegoState | 132 | MountainWest |
| Colgate | 133 | Patriot |
| FresnoState | 134 | MountainWest |
| BallState | 135 | MidAmerican |
| Binghamton | 136 | AmericaEast |
| Harvard | 137 | Ivy |
| SanDiegoU | 138 | WestCoast |
| StephenFAustin | 139 | Southland |
| ArkansasState | 140 | SunBelt |
| AirForce | 141 | MountainWest |
| KennesawState | 142 | AtlanticSun |
| UALR | 143 | SunBelt |
| GeorgeWashington | 144 | AtlanticTen |
| BowlingGreen | 145 | MidAmerican |
| Troy | 146 | SunBelt |
| Charlotte | 147 | ConferenceUSA |
| UNCGreensboro | 148 | Southern |
| DelawareU | 149 | Colonial |
| VCU | 150 | AtlanticTen |
| Elon | 151 | Colonial |
| CentralConnecticut | 152 | Northeast |
| McNeeseState | 153 | Southland |
| WrightState | 154 | Horizon |
| Longwood | 155 | BigSouth |
| UMKC | 156 | WAC |
| Dayton | 157 | AtlanticTen |
| William&Mary | 158 | Colonial |
| AustinPeay | 159 | OhioValley |
| BoiseState | 160 | MountainWest |
| FloridaAtlantic | 161 | ConferenceUSA |
| KentuckyU | 162 | SEC |
| UNCWilmington | 163 | Colonial |
| PennsylvaniaU | 164 | Ivy |
| IUPUI | 165 | Horizon |
| MissouriU | 166 | SEC |
| StJohns | 167 | BigEast |
| Lehigh | 168 | Patriot |
| WesternKentucky | 169 | ConferenceUSA |
| Pittsburgh | 170 | ACC |
| TexasRGV | 171 | WAC |
| CollegeofCharleston | 172 | Colonial |
| Manhattan | 173 | MetroAtlantic |
| Valparaiso | 174 | MissouriValley |
| HoustonBaptist | 175 | Southland |
| EastCarolina | 176 | American |
| SanFrancisco | 177 | WestCoast |
| SacramentoState | 178 | BigSky |
| Dartmouth | 179 | Ivy |
| Quinnipiac | 180 | MetroAtlantic |
| Radford | 181 | BigSouth |
| Siena | 182 | MetroAtlantic |
| StonyBrook | 183 | AmericaEast |
| Villanova | 184 | BigEast |
| FairleighDickinson | 185 | Northeast |
| WesternCarolina | 186 | Southern |
| CentralArkansas | 187 | Southland |
| MissouriState | 188 | MissouriValley |
| MiddleTennessee | 189 | ConferenceUSA |
| SoutheastMissouriState | 190 | OhioValley |
| MiamiFL | 191 | ACC |
| IowaState | 192 | BigTwelve |
| MassachusettsU | 193 | AtlanticTen |
| Buffalo | 194 | MidAmerican |
| ClevelandState | 195 | Horizon |
| OklahomaU | 196 | BigTwelve |
| SouthernMississippi | 197 | ConferenceUSA |
| Temple | 198 | American |
| NorthernIllinois | 199 | MidAmerican |
| StFrancis | 200 | Northeast |
| CalPoly | 201 | BigWest |
| GeorgiaSouthern | 202 | SunBelt |
| WyomingU | 203 | MountainWest |
| Toledo | 204 | MidAmerican |
| NorthFlorida | 205 | AtlanticSun |
| JacksonvilleState | 206 | OhioValley |
| AlabamaState | 207 | Southwestern |
| UCDavis | 208 | BigWest |
| WesternMichigan | 209 | MidAmerican |
| ColoradoState | 210 | MountainWest |
| CoastalCarolina | 211 | SunBelt |
| KansasState | 212 | BigTwelve |
| Cornell | 213 | Ivy |
| StMarys | 214 | WestCoast |
| Towson | 215 | Colonial |
| UtahValley | 216 | WAC |
| OregonState | 217 | PacTwelve |
| TexasCorpusChristi | 218 | Southland |
| IllinoisU | 219 | BigTen |
| SIUEdwardsville | 220 | OhioValley |
| VermontU | 221 | AmericaEast |
| PortlandU | 222 | WestCoast |
| OhioU | 223 | MidAmerican |
| UTSA | 224 | ConferenceUSA |
| ColoradoCollege | 225 | MountainWest |
| Denver | 226 | Summit |
| Niagara | 227 | MetroAtlantic |
| Fordham | 228 | AtlanticTen |
| UMassLowell | 229 | AmericaEast |
| Tulsa | 230 | American |
| SamHoustonState | 231 | Southland |
| IndianaState | 232 | MissouriValley |
| UCRiverside | 233 | BigWest |
| AbileneChristian | 234 | Southland |
| CentralMichigan | 235 | MidAmerican |
| Mercer | 236 | Southern |
| Marist | 237 | MetroAtlantic |
| Marshall | 238 | ConferenceUSA |
| NewMexicoState | 239 | WAC |
| TexasSouthern | 240 | Southwestern |
| Campbell | 241 | BigSouth |
| NorthernArizona | 242 | BigSky |
| Fairfield | 243 | MetroAtlantic |
| OralRoberts | 244 | Summit |
| Pacific | 245 | WestCoast |
| NJIT | 246 | AtlanticSun |
| Creighton | 247 | BigEast |
| LouisianaLafayette | 248 | SunBelt |
| AppalachianState | 249 | SunBelt |
| EastTennesseeState | 250 | Southern |
| Howard | 251 | Southwestern |
| SacredHeart | 252 | Northeast |
| TennesseeMartin | 253 | OhioValley |
| EasternMichigan | 254 | MidAmerican |
| Hartford | 255 | AmericaEast |
| NorthDakotaU | 256 | BigSky |
| MaineU | 257 | AmericaEast |
| Lafayette | 258 | Patriot |
| IdahoU | 259 | BigSky |
| UTEP | 260 | ConferenceUSA |
| IllinoisChicago | 261 | Horizon |
| Rider | 262 | MetroAtlantic |
| WeberState | 263 | BigSky |
| Chattanooga | 264 | Southern |
| RhodeIslandU | 265 | AtlanticTen |
| Canisius | 266 | MetroAtlantic |
| Seattle | 267 | WAC |
| UNCAsheville | 268 | BigSouth |
| Albany | 269 | AmericaEast |
| UNOmaha | 270 | Summit |
| HawaiiU | 271 | BigWest |
| Grambling | 272 | Southwestern |
| SouthernUtah | 273 | BigSky |
| Morehead | 274 | OhioValley |
| NorthDakotaState | 275 | Summit |
| Richmond | 276 | AtlanticTen |
| HolyCross | 277 | Patriot |
| GeorgiaState | 278 | SunBelt |
| CalStateBakersfield | 279 | WAC |
| StBonaventure | 280 | AtlanticTen |
| UMBC | 281 | AmericaEast |
| Evansville | 282 | MissouriValley |
| GardnerWebb | 283 | BigSouth |
| VMI | 284 | Southern |
| SetonHall | 285 | BigEast |
| RobertMorris | 286 | Northeast |
| EasternIllinois | 287 | OhioValley |
| American | 288 | Patriot |
| CharlestonSouthern | 289 | BigSouth |
| Akron | 290 | MidAmerican |
| Davidson | 291 | AtlanticTen |
| NichollsState | 292 | Southland |
| Winthrop | 293 | BigSouth |
| LouisianaMonroe | 294 | SunBelt |
| USCUpstate | 295 | AtlanticSun |
| MississippiValley | 296 | Southwestern |
| PortlandState | 297 | BigSky |
| Oakland | 298 | Horizon |
| IncarnateWord | 299 | Southland |
| JacksonvilleU | 300 | AtlanticSun |
| Army | 301 | Patriot |
| PrairieViewA&M | 302 | Southwestern |
| SouthDakotaU | 303 | Summit |
| SELouisiana | 304 | Southland |
| GrandCanyon | 305 | WAC |
| NorthwesternState | 306 | Southland |
| Wofford | 307 | Southern |
| LongIsland | 308 | Northeast |
| MiamiOH | 309 | MidAmerican |
| Presbyterian | 310 | BigSouth |
| Wagner | 311 | Northeast |
| MountStMary | 312 | Northeast |
| YoungstownState | 313 | Horizon |
| Iona | 314 | MetroAtlantic |
| FIU | 315 | ConferenceUSA |
| IdahoState | 316 | BigSky |
| Detroit | 317 | Horizon |
| LoyolaMD | 318 | Patriot |
| Citadel | 319 | Southern |
| NevadaU | 320 | MountainWest |
| GreenBay | 321 | Horizon |
| AlcornState | 322 | Southwestern |
| WesternIllinois | 323 | Summit |
| ArkansasPineBluff | 324 | Southwestern |
| StPeters | 325 | MetroAtlantic |
| JacksonState | 326 | Southwestern |
| IPFW | 327 | Summit |
| DelawareState | 328 | Independent |
| SouthCarolinaState | 329 | Independent |
| ChicagoState | 330 | WAC |
| SouthernU | 331 | Southwestern |
| AlabamaA&M | 332 | Southwestern |
| Hampton | 333 | Independent |
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