While most attention is on the 2017 season, I know that coaches are thinking about schedules throughout the year. So, this is a little diversion from next month's first-of-the-season games to provide some information about how many Top 60 opponents a coach should try to schedule in order to achieve his or her NCAA Tournament seeding or at large selection goal.
To develop this information, I looked at all of the teams that received #1, #2, #3, and #4 seeds over the last 10 years, at all the teams that were not seeded but received at large selections, and at all the teams from the Top 60 that did not receive at large selections. For each group, I determined the number of Top 60 teams they had played, using the end-of-regular-season (including conference tournaments) ARPI rankings (based on the current ARPI formula). Here's what the numbers show:
Unseeded Teams That Received At Large Selections
3 teams @ 14 Top 60 Opponents (includes opponents played in conference tournaments)
11 @ 13
19 @ 12
32 @ 11
37 @ 10
39 @ 9
27 @ 8
38 @ 7
12 @ 6
12 @ 5
5 @ 4
1 @ 3
1 @ 2
The average number of Top 60 opponents, for the entire group, is 8.97, or essentially 9 Top 60 opponents. For the teams in the Top 60 that did not get at large selections, the average was 6.41, or essentially 6.5 Top 60 opponents. A point worth noting is that teams with fewer than 5 Top 60 opponents have only a very small chance of getting an at large selection. And, teams with fewer than 7 Top 60 opponents have only about a 10% chance of getting an at large selection. So, perhaps a reasonable rule of thumb would be to try to schedule so as to have at least the average that got at large selections -- 9 Top 60 opponents.
Also, from an historical perspective, teams with fewer than 2 Top 60 opponents do not get any at large selections. And, one Top 60 team that played 14 Top 60 opponents did not get an at large selection, but all Top 60 teams with 15 or more Top 60 opponents not only got at large selections, they also got at least a #4 seed.
Teams That Received #1 Seeds
2 @ 18
3 @ 16
6 @ 15
2 @ 14
9 @ 13
4 @ 12
9 @ 11
2 @ 10
2 @ 9
1 @ 8
The average for #1 seeds is 12.80 or, essentially, 13 Top 60 opponents. Interestingly, over the last 10 years all teams in the Top 60 that played 18 Top 60 opponents ("all" being 2 teams) received #1 seeds. And, playing 7 or fewer Top 60 opponents has not been enough to get a #1 seed.
Teams That Received #2 Seeds
2 @ 16
1 @ 15
3 @ 14
7 @ 13
3 @ 12
6 @ 11
6 @ 10
6 @ 9
2 @ 8
3 @ 7
1 @ 6
The average for #2 seeds is 11.89 or, essentially, 12 Top 60 opponents. All teams that played at least 16 Top 60 opponents received either a #1 or a #2 seed. And, playing 5 or fewer Top 60 opponents has not been enough to get a #2 seed.
Teams That Received #3 Seeds
1 @ 15
1 @ 14
4 @ 13
10 @ 12
10 @ 11
7 @ 10
3 @ 9
3 @ 8
1 @ 5
The average for #3 seeds is 10.93 or, essentially, 11 Top 60 opponents. Playing 4 or fewer Top 60 opponents has not been enough to get a #3 seed.
Teams That Received #4 Seeds
2 @ 15
1 @ 14
3 @ 13
5 @ 12
7 @ 11
8 @ 10
5 @ 9
5 @ 8
2 @ 7
2 @ 4
The average for #4 seeds is 10.18 or, essentially, 10 Top 60 opponents. Playing 3 or fewer Top 60 opponents has not been enough to get any seed.
