One of the things the 2016 Season Simulation has turned out to be good for is to illustrate, for conference standings, how conference game locations and conferences playing less than a full round robin can affect conference standings. They can influence the standings so that a team that is better than another nevertheless ends up poorer in the conference standings.
The simulated 2016 standings for Virginia Tech and North Carolina, in the Atlantic Coast Conference, will show what I mean. The ACC has 14 teams, but each team plays only 10 conference opponents for purposes of the conference regular season standings.
According to the Simulation, here are the 2016 ranks of the teams in the ACC:
1.5 Duke
1.5 Clemson
3.0 Florida State
4.0 Boston College
5.0 Virginia Tech
6.0 Virginia
7.0 North Carolina
8.0 Wake Forest
9.0 Louisville
10.0 Notre Dame
11.5 Syracuse
11.5 Miami FL
13.5 North Carolina State
13.5 Pittsburgh
Each rank has a rating assigned to it, based on the historic rating for that rank within the ACC. When I apply those ratings to ACC conference games, after (1) adjusting the ratings for home field advantage, which is worth .0120, and (2) treating any game with an adjusted rating difference of 0.0134 or less as a tie (consistent with historic data), this year's conference competition ends up with Virginia Tech finishing #7 in the conference with 17 points, Virginia as #5 with 20 points, and North Carolina as #6 with 19 points. The effect of this is that the three teams end up with different ACC conference tournament seeds than they would have had if the conference standings reflected the teams' simulated strength.
The question is, How could this happen? With Virginia Tech and North Carolina as my examples, here are their simulated results:
Virginia Tech
v Virginia #6, away, tie, Game location doesn't matter 1 point
v North Carolina #7, away, tie, Game location changes a win to a tie 1 point
v Duke #1.5, home, loss, Game location doesn't matter
v Clemson #1.5, home, loss, Game location doesn't matter
v Syracuse #11.5, away, win, Game location doesn't matter 3 points
v Boston College #4, away, loss, Game location changes a tie to a loss
v Louisville #9, home, win, Game location doesn't matter 3 points
v Notre Dame #10, home, win, Game location doesn't matter 3 points
v Miami FL, #11.5, away, win, Game location doesn't matter 3 points
v Wake Forest #8, home, win, Game location doesn't matter 3 points
If you count down the simulation ranks list, you'll see that the teams Virginia Tech does not play are #3, 13.5, and 13.5.
North Carolina
v North Carolina State #13.5, home, win, Game location doesn't matter 3 points
v Virginia Tech #5, home, tie, Game location changes a loss to a tie 1 point
v Clemson #1.5, away, loss, Game location doesn't matter
v Virginia #6, away, loss, Game location changes a tie to a loss
v Miami FL #11.5, home, win, Game location doesn't matter, 3 points
v Wake Forest #8, home, win, Game location doesn't matter, 3 points
v Notre Dame #10, away, win, Game location doesn't matter, 3 points
v Pittsburgh #13.5, away, win, Game location doesn't matter, 3 points
v Syracuse #11.5, away, win, Game location doesn't matter, 3 points
v Florida State #3, home, loss, Game location doesn't matter
North Carolina does not play the #1.5, 4, and 9 teams in the conference.
Thus, in relation to North Carolina, Virginia Tech is hurt by both game locations and the assignment of opponents. Virginia Tech loses 3 points due to game locations whereas North Carolina comes out even. Virginia Tech doesn't play the #3, 13.5, and 13.5 teams in the conference, whereas North Carolina doesn't play the #1.5, 4, and 9 teams.
The bottom line for conferences is that game locations and playing less than a full round robin can skew conference standings so that they may not reflect the actual strength of the conference's teams.
Wednesday, August 31, 2016
2016 Season Simulation: Important Limitation to Keep in MInd
When you're looking at the 2016 Season Simulation, there's an important limitation to keep in mind.
An underlying assumption in the simulation is that, if Team A's simulated rating is more than 0.0134 higher than Team B's rating, then when they play each other Team A will win. In real life, however, it doesn't work that way. There are significant numbers of upsets. As a result of this, it is likely, on average, that teams the simulation shows with really good records won't have records that good -- they'll end up losing some of the games the simulation says they will win. Likewise, teams the simulation shows with really poor records likely won't have records that poor -- they'll likely win some of the games the simulation says they will lose. Similarly, some of the simulated ties will be win/loss games; and some of the simulated win/loss games will be ties. On the other hand, teams in the 50-50 win/loss area may well end up right about there, on average -- they likely will lose some games they should win, but the also likely will win about the same number of games they should lose.
On average, this won't affect teams from the power conferences and stronger teams from the mid-majors the same way. Looking, say, at the top 100 teams in the Simulation, the teams from mid-major conferences tend to rely on their own high winning percentages in achieving their high rankings, as distinguished from their strengths of schedule. On the other hand, teams from the power conferences tend to rely on their high strengths of schedule, as distinguished from their winning percentages. In other words, in the Simulation, top 100 mid-major teams are going to have a lot more wins than losses, as compared to top 100 teams from the power conferences. Since the mid-major teams have significantly more Simulation wins than losses, the actuality of upsets will erode their winning percentages significantly; whereas since the power conference teams do not have such one-sided Simulation win/loss records, the actuality of upsets will not erode their winning percentages as much and their rankings aren't as dependent on their win/loss records anyway. Here's an example of what I mean, from the Week 2 Update, using an assumed upset rate of 25%:
Kent State, #44 in the simulation, has a simulated final record of 20-1-0. In actuality, their record is likely to be 15.25-5.75-0, which rounds off to 15-6-0.
Kentucky, #45 in the simulation, has a simulated final record of 8-7-5. In actuality, depending on how I treat simulated ties, Kentucky's actual record is likely to round off to either 8-7-5 or 8-8-4.
Kentucky's strength of schedule is much better than Kent State's. Thus once the games actually are played, Kent State is likely to drop well below Kentucky in the rankings, instead of being above them.
What this means, especially as you look at the early updates of the simulation, is that the simulation rates the stronger mid-major teams significantly higher than they are likely to be rated once they've actually played their games. So, you're likely to see them dropping down in the rankings, as I do new simulation updates from week to week. On the other hand, for the power conference teams, especially those in the 30+ ranking area, you're likely to see them stay more in place or even rise in the rankings to fill spaces previously occupied by mid-majors.
There's another simple illustration of this that uses past seasons' experience: The the 2016 Season Simulation: Week 2 Update shows 22 Automatic Qualifiers (conference champions) among the top 60 teams in the rankings. On the other hand, the average number of Automatic Qualifiers among the top 60 teams, over the past nine years, has been 15.44, with the highest number in any year being 18. Thus as actual results occur, some of the currently simulated Automatic Qualifiers in the top 60 are going to drop down out of the top 60 rankings.
An underlying assumption in the simulation is that, if Team A's simulated rating is more than 0.0134 higher than Team B's rating, then when they play each other Team A will win. In real life, however, it doesn't work that way. There are significant numbers of upsets. As a result of this, it is likely, on average, that teams the simulation shows with really good records won't have records that good -- they'll end up losing some of the games the simulation says they will win. Likewise, teams the simulation shows with really poor records likely won't have records that poor -- they'll likely win some of the games the simulation says they will lose. Similarly, some of the simulated ties will be win/loss games; and some of the simulated win/loss games will be ties. On the other hand, teams in the 50-50 win/loss area may well end up right about there, on average -- they likely will lose some games they should win, but the also likely will win about the same number of games they should lose.
On average, this won't affect teams from the power conferences and stronger teams from the mid-majors the same way. Looking, say, at the top 100 teams in the Simulation, the teams from mid-major conferences tend to rely on their own high winning percentages in achieving their high rankings, as distinguished from their strengths of schedule. On the other hand, teams from the power conferences tend to rely on their high strengths of schedule, as distinguished from their winning percentages. In other words, in the Simulation, top 100 mid-major teams are going to have a lot more wins than losses, as compared to top 100 teams from the power conferences. Since the mid-major teams have significantly more Simulation wins than losses, the actuality of upsets will erode their winning percentages significantly; whereas since the power conference teams do not have such one-sided Simulation win/loss records, the actuality of upsets will not erode their winning percentages as much and their rankings aren't as dependent on their win/loss records anyway. Here's an example of what I mean, from the Week 2 Update, using an assumed upset rate of 25%:
Kent State, #44 in the simulation, has a simulated final record of 20-1-0. In actuality, their record is likely to be 15.25-5.75-0, which rounds off to 15-6-0.
Kentucky, #45 in the simulation, has a simulated final record of 8-7-5. In actuality, depending on how I treat simulated ties, Kentucky's actual record is likely to round off to either 8-7-5 or 8-8-4.
Kentucky's strength of schedule is much better than Kent State's. Thus once the games actually are played, Kent State is likely to drop well below Kentucky in the rankings, instead of being above them.
What this means, especially as you look at the early updates of the simulation, is that the simulation rates the stronger mid-major teams significantly higher than they are likely to be rated once they've actually played their games. So, you're likely to see them dropping down in the rankings, as I do new simulation updates from week to week. On the other hand, for the power conference teams, especially those in the 30+ ranking area, you're likely to see them stay more in place or even rise in the rankings to fill spaces previously occupied by mid-majors.
There's another simple illustration of this that uses past seasons' experience: The the 2016 Season Simulation: Week 2 Update shows 22 Automatic Qualifiers (conference champions) among the top 60 teams in the rankings. On the other hand, the average number of Automatic Qualifiers among the top 60 teams, over the past nine years, has been 15.44, with the highest number in any year being 18. Thus as actual results occur, some of the currently simulated Automatic Qualifiers in the top 60 are going to drop down out of the top 60 rankings.
Tuesday, August 30, 2016
2016 Season NCAA Bracket Simulation: Week 2 Update
Using the 2016 Season Simulation: Week 2 Update from my previous post, I've applied my bracket formation system to those simulated data to come up with Week 2 simulated automatic qualifiers, at large selections, and seeds for the NCAA Tournament bracket. My system simply compares teams' information to (1) standards as to which, if met, the team always has gotten a particular seed or an at large selection and (2) standards as to which, if met, the team never has gotten a particular seed or at large selection. It's strictly a data-driven system. It simply says, "If the Women's Soccer Committee is going to be consistent with all of its decisions over the last nine years, here's what it will do." (The Committee isn't required to be consistent.)
Here's what the system comes up with following Week 2. The code for the NCAA Seed or Selection column is as follows:
1 = #1 seed
2 = #2 seed
3 = #3 seed
4 = #4 seed
5 = automatic qualifier
6 = at large selection (that is not seeded)
7 = next in line for at large selection
Here it is:
Here's what the system comes up with following Week 2. The code for the NCAA Seed or Selection column is as follows:
1 = #1 seed
2 = #2 seed
3 = #3 seed
4 = #4 seed
5 = automatic qualifier
6 = at large selection (that is not seeded)
7 = next in line for at large selection
Here it is:
| NCAA Seed or Selection | Automatic Qualifier | ARPI Rank | Team |
| 1 | AQ | 1 | Stanford |
| 1 | 5 | Clemson | |
| 1 | AQ | 3 | FloridaU |
| 1 | AQ | 4 | WestVirginiaU |
| 2 | AQ | 2 | Duke |
| 2 | 9 | FloridaState | |
| 2 | 7 | UCLA | |
| 2 | 8 | Auburn | |
| 3 | 11 | SouthernCalifornia | |
| 3 | AQ | 6 | ConnecticutU |
| 3 | 13 | BostonCollege | |
| 3 | AQ | 10 | WisconsinU |
| 4 | 21 | Rutgers | |
| 4 | 25 | CaliforniaU | |
| 4 | AQ | 15 | BYU |
| 4 | 20 | PennState | |
| 5 | AQ | 17 | Georgetown |
| 5 | AQ | 22 | LongBeachState |
| 5 | AQ | 23 | Harvard |
| 5 | AQ | 14 | Rice |
| 5 | AQ | 26 | Northeastern |
| 5 | AQ | 31 | SanDiegoState |
| 5 | AQ | 57 | Drake |
| 5 | AQ | 36 | BostonU |
| 5 | AQ | 35 | SouthAlabama |
| 5 | AQ | 44 | Rider |
| 5 | AQ | 42 | KentState |
| 5 | AQ | 51 | SoutheastMissouriState |
| 5 | AQ | 48 | Samford |
| 5 | AQ | 56 | Seattle |
| 5 | AQ | 60 | HighPoint |
| 5 | AQ | 74 | IdahoU |
| 5 | AQ | 81 | Albany |
| 5 | AQ | 83 | StephenFAustin |
| 5 | AQ | 87 | FloridaGulfCoast |
| 5 | AQ | 88 | Milwaukee |
| 5 | AQ | 98 | Dayton |
| 5 | AQ | 131 | StFrancis |
| 5 | AQ | 142 | NorthDakotaState |
| 5 | AQ | 209 | JacksonState |
| 6 | 18 | TexasA&M | |
| 6 | 16 | VirginiaTech | |
| 6 | 19 | OklahomaState | |
| 6 | 27 | VirginiaU | |
| 6 | 24 | MinnesotaU | |
| 6 | 12 | Memphis | |
| 6 | 30 | LSU | |
| 6 | 28 | WashingtonState | |
| 6 | 33 | ArizonaU | |
| 6 | 38 | Pepperdine | |
| 6 | 32 | GeorgiaU | |
| 6 | 29 | TexasTech | |
| 6 | 39 | SantaClara | |
| 6 | 52 | ArizonaState | |
| 6 | 47 | GeorgeWashington | |
| 6 | 54 | PortlandU | |
| 6 | 43 | SouthCarolinaU | |
| 6 | 45 | KentuckyU | |
| 6 | 55 | Baylor | |
| 6 | 46 | Hofstra | |
| 6 | 40 | OhioState | |
| 6 | 50 | WashingtonU | |
| 7 | 34 | UCF | |
| 7 | 37 | Princeton | |
| 7 | 41 | Tulsa | |
| 7 | 49 | NorthCarolinaU | |
| 7 | 53 | NebraskaU |
Monday, August 29, 2016
2016 Season Simulation: Week 2 Update
This Week 2 Update to the 2016 Season Simulation is a hybrid of (1) the actual results of the games played from the beginning of the season through Sunday, August 28 and (2) my simulated results for the balance of the season (including simulated conference tournaments).
| Team | Conference | Adjusted RPI | ARPI Rank | Total Wins | Total Losses | Total Ties |
| Stanford | PacTwelve | 0.7402 | 1 | 18 | 0 | 1 |
| Duke | ACC | 0.7256 | 2 | 18 | 1 | 2 |
| FloridaU | SEC | 0.7213 | 3 | 20 | 1 | 0 |
| WestVirginiaU | BigTwelve | 0.7149 | 4 | 19 | 1 | 1 |
| Clemson | ACC | 0.7135 | 5 | 18 | 1 | 2 |
| ConnecticutU | American | 0.6872 | 6 | 20 | 2 | 0 |
| UCLA | PacTwelve | 0.6829 | 7 | 13 | 3 | 3 |
| Auburn | SEC | 0.6824 | 8 | 15 | 2 | 3 |
| FloridaState | ACC | 0.6756 | 9 | 16 | 3 | 1 |
| SouthernCalifornia | PacTwelve | 0.6679 | 10 | 15 | 2 | 2 |
| WisconsinU | BigTen | 0.6637 | 11 | 17 | 2 | 3 |
| Memphis | American | 0.6629 | 12 | 15 | 3 | 3 |
| BostonCollege | ACC | 0.6575 | 13 | 15 | 3 | 3 |
| Rice | ConferenceUSA | 0.6564 | 14 | 16 | 2 | 1 |
| BYU | WestCoast | 0.6546 | 15 | 18 | 1 | 0 |
| VirginiaTech | ACC | 0.6543 | 16 | 14 | 4 | 2 |
| Georgetown | BigEast | 0.6539 | 17 | 16 | 2 | 2 |
| TexasA&M | SEC | 0.6503 | 18 | 15 | 4 | 2 |
| OklahomaState | BigTwelve | 0.6460 | 19 | 17 | 3 | 2 |
| PennState | BigTen | 0.6454 | 20 | 12 | 5 | 3 |
| Rutgers | BigTen | 0.6446 | 21 | 13 | 1 | 5 |
| LongBeachState | BigWest | 0.6414 | 22 | 15 | 2 | 3 |
| Harvard | Ivy | 0.6402 | 23 | 13 | 2 | 1 |
| MinnesotaU | BigTen | 0.6354 | 24 | 18 | 3 | 1 |
| CaliforniaU | PacTwelve | 0.6345 | 25 | 16 | 3 | 1 |
| Northeastern | Colonial | 0.6344 | 26 | 16 | 3 | 2 |
| VirginiaU | ACC | 0.6332 | 27 | 13 | 3 | 3 |
| WashingtonState | PacTwelve | 0.6331 | 28 | 13 | 6 | 0 |
| TexasTech | BigTwelve | 0.6228 | 29 | 13 | 4 | 3 |
| LSU | SEC | 0.6213 | 30 | 14 | 5 | 2 |
| SanDiegoState | MountainWest | 0.6170 | 31 | 16 | 2 | 2 |
| GeorgiaU | SEC | 0.6169 | 32 | 9 | 8 | 2 |
| ArizonaU | PacTwelve | 0.6133 | 33 | 11 | 5 | 3 |
| SouthAlabama | SunBelt | 0.6122 | 34 | 17 | 2 | 2 |
| Princeton | Ivy | 0.6114 | 35 | 12 | 2 | 3 |
| UCF | American | 0.6113 | 36 | 12 | 6 | 2 |
| BostonU | Patriot | 0.6110 | 37 | 13 | 5 | 3 |
| Pepperdine | WestCoast | 0.6071 | 38 | 15 | 3 | 1 |
| SantaClara | WestCoast | 0.6063 | 39 | 12 | 7 | 0 |
| Rider | MetroAtlantic | 0.6057 | 40 | 17 | 1 | 1 |
| OhioState | BigTen | 0.6056 | 41 | 11 | 8 | 2 |
| SouthCarolinaU | SEC | 0.6053 | 42 | 12 | 6 | 1 |
| Tulsa | American | 0.6051 | 43 | 13 | 6 | 2 |
| KentState | MidAmerican | 0.6044 | 44 | 20 | 1 | 0 |
| KentuckyU | SEC | 0.6006 | 45 | 8 | 7 | 5 |
| Hofstra | Colonial | 0.5998 | 46 | 14 | 4 | 2 |
| Samford | Southern | 0.5971 | 47 | 13 | 4 | 4 |
| GeorgeWashington | AtlanticTen | 0.5958 | 48 | 16 | 2 | 4 |
| NorthCarolinaU | ACC | 0.5952 | 49 | 9 | 7 | 2 |
| WashingtonU | PacTwelve | 0.5939 | 50 | 10 | 7 | 3 |
| SoutheastMissouriState | OhioValley | 0.5923 | 51 | 18 | 1 | 0 |
| ArizonaState | PacTwelve | 0.5896 | 52 | 9 | 7 | 3 |
| NebraskaU | BigTen | 0.5892 | 53 | 10 | 8 | 2 |
| Baylor | BigTwelve | 0.5833 | 54 | 12 | 6 | 2 |
| PortlandU | WestCoast | 0.5828 | 55 | 14 | 4 | 1 |
| Seattle | WAC | 0.5822 | 56 | 14 | 2 | 4 |
| Drake | MissouriValley | 0.5815 | 57 | 16 | 1 | 3 |
| CoastalCarolina | SunBelt | 0.5812 | 58 | 15 | 3 | 3 |
| WesternKentucky | ConferenceUSA | 0.5807 | 59 | 14 | 5 | 2 |
| HighPoint | BigSouth | 0.5798 | 60 | 16 | 4 | 1 |
| BallState | MidAmerican | 0.5784 | 61 | 18 | 2 | 2 |
| MississippiU | SEC | 0.5777 | 62 | 8 | 8 | 5 |
| WakeForest | ACC | 0.5769 | 63 | 12 | 7 | 0 |
| UCSantaBarbara | BigWest | 0.5756 | 64 | 17 | 2 | 2 |
| NorthTexas | ConferenceUSA | 0.5728 | 65 | 16 | 1 | 4 |
| JamesMadison | Colonial | 0.5728 | 66 | 12 | 6 | 2 |
| William&Mary | Colonial | 0.5723 | 67 | 13 | 4 | 3 |
| Siena | MetroAtlantic | 0.5711 | 68 | 13 | 3 | 4 |
| UNCWilmington | Colonial | 0.5709 | 69 | 11 | 3 | 6 |
| StJohns | BigEast | 0.5708 | 70 | 12 | 4 | 4 |
| Colgate | Patriot | 0.5707 | 71 | 12 | 3 | 5 |
| WyomingU | MountainWest | 0.5699 | 72 | 15 | 3 | 3 |
| IdahoU | BigSky | 0.5689 | 73 | 16 | 2 | 2 |
| UtahU | PacTwelve | 0.5685 | 74 | 10 | 9 | 1 |
| Marquette | BigEast | 0.5675 | 75 | 12 | 8 | 1 |
| StJosephs | AtlanticTen | 0.5673 | 76 | 14 | 3 | 4 |
| Furman | Southern | 0.5671 | 77 | 12 | 0 | 6 |
| Navy | Patriot | 0.5661 | 78 | 14 | 5 | 3 |
| Yale | Ivy | 0.5661 | 79 | 9 | 4 | 3 |
| OklahomaU | BigTwelve | 0.5648 | 80 | 8 | 9 | 3 |
| Columbia | Ivy | 0.5623 | 81 | 9 | 4 | 4 |
| Albany | AmericaEast | 0.5612 | 82 | 15 | 3 | 1 |
| Cincinnati | American | 0.5610 | 83 | 10 | 8 | 2 |
| StephenFAustin | Southland | 0.5606 | 84 | 14 | 2 | 3 |
| TCU | BigTwelve | 0.5593 | 85 | 11 | 6 | 1 |
| MontanaU | BigSky | 0.5556 | 86 | 13 | 3 | 5 |
| FloridaGulfCoast | AtlanticSun | 0.5547 | 87 | 16 | 3 | 0 |
| Milwaukee | Horizon | 0.5542 | 88 | 15 | 3 | 2 |
| Buffalo | MidAmerican | 0.5541 | 89 | 12 | 5 | 4 |
| NorthwesternU | BigTen | 0.5535 | 90 | 12 | 5 | 2 |
| Liberty | BigSouth | 0.5534 | 91 | 13 | 7 | 1 |
| NewHampshireU | AmericaEast | 0.5516 | 92 | 11 | 5 | 3 |
| Syracuse | ACC | 0.5501 | 93 | 7 | 7 | 5 |
| UtahState | MountainWest | 0.5477 | 94 | 11 | 7 | 3 |
| AlabamaU | SEC | 0.5476 | 95 | 8 | 6 | 5 |
| CalStateFullerton | BigWest | 0.5474 | 96 | 12 | 6 | 1 |
| Dayton | AtlanticTen | 0.5469 | 97 | 17 | 3 | 2 |
| TennesseeU | SEC | 0.5464 | 98 | 7 | 10 | 2 |
| LouisianaLafayette | SunBelt | 0.5452 | 99 | 14 | 4 | 2 |
| Butler | BigEast | 0.5434 | 100 | 16 | 4 | 1 |
| MichiganU | BigTen | 0.5430 | 101 | 6 | 4 | 8 |
| MissouriU | SEC | 0.5410 | 102 | 9 | 6 | 4 |
| Providence | BigEast | 0.5407 | 103 | 8 | 10 | 2 |
| FloridaAtlantic | ConferenceUSA | 0.5399 | 104 | 11 | 6 | 3 |
| CalPoly | BigWest | 0.5398 | 105 | 9 | 8 | 3 |
| Brown | Ivy | 0.5391 | 106 | 9 | 4 | 3 |
| UTEP | ConferenceUSA | 0.5357 | 107 | 10 | 4 | 8 |
| Monmouth | MetroAtlantic | 0.5349 | 108 | 13 | 3 | 4 |
| IowaState | BigTwelve | 0.5347 | 109 | 5 | 11 | 3 |
| Hartford | AmericaEast | 0.5346 | 110 | 12 | 4 | 3 |
| SacramentoState | BigSky | 0.5344 | 111 | 14 | 3 | 2 |
| EastCarolina | American | 0.5342 | 112 | 9 | 8 | 3 |
| SanJoseState | MountainWest | 0.5332 | 113 | 9 | 7 | 5 |
| IowaU | BigTen | 0.5322 | 114 | 11 | 6 | 2 |
| OregonU | PacTwelve | 0.5321 | 115 | 5 | 12 | 3 |
| EastTennesseeState | Southern | 0.5318 | 116 | 14 | 2 | 4 |
| Morehead | OhioValley | 0.5315 | 117 | 14 | 5 | 3 |
| ArkansasU | SEC | 0.5314 | 118 | 5 | 11 | 3 |
| SouthFlorida | American | 0.5304 | 119 | 8 | 6 | 4 |
| Lipscomb | AtlanticSun | 0.5303 | 120 | 13 | 4 | 2 |
| NotreDame | ACC | 0.5301 | 121 | 7 | 10 | 1 |
| Louisville | ACC | 0.5295 | 122 | 7 | 8 | 3 |
| GeorgeMason | AtlanticTen | 0.5293 | 123 | 12 | 7 | 2 |
| Troy | SunBelt | 0.5289 | 124 | 10 | 6 | 4 |
| Cornell | Ivy | 0.5272 | 125 | 4 | 7 | 5 |
| DePaul | BigEast | 0.5268 | 126 | 9 | 9 | 1 |
| UMKC | WAC | 0.5263 | 127 | 13 | 3 | 5 |
| Fordham | AtlanticTen | 0.5259 | 128 | 9 | 8 | 3 |
| CentralMichigan | MidAmerican | 0.5253 | 129 | 13 | 5 | 3 |
| Manhattan | MetroAtlantic | 0.5252 | 130 | 11 | 6 | 2 |
| Bucknell | Patriot | 0.5225 | 131 | 9 | 6 | 4 |
| StFrancis | Northeast | 0.5219 | 132 | 15 | 5 | 1 |
| UALR | SunBelt | 0.5209 | 133 | 10 | 9 | 1 |
| TexasState | SunBelt | 0.5197 | 134 | 10 | 6 | 4 |
| WesternMichigan | MidAmerican | 0.5194 | 135 | 12 | 4 | 4 |
| DelawareU | Colonial | 0.5192 | 136 | 6 | 10 | 3 |
| OregonState | PacTwelve | 0.5186 | 137 | 5 | 11 | 4 |
| TexasU | BigTwelve | 0.5166 | 138 | 6 | 10 | 3 |
| AbileneChristian | Southland | 0.5145 | 139 | 10 | 7 | 4 |
| SELouisiana | Southland | 0.5138 | 140 | 12 | 5 | 4 |
| UNCGreensboro | Southern | 0.5138 | 141 | 8 | 9 | 3 |
| NorthDakotaState | Summit | 0.5120 | 142 | 12 | 5 | 2 |
| CalStateNorthridge | BigWest | 0.5119 | 143 | 8 | 8 | 4 |
| SMU | American | 0.5118 | 144 | 6 | 11 | 2 |
| Longwood | BigSouth | 0.5110 | 145 | 9 | 7 | 4 |
| IllinoisU | BigTen | 0.5102 | 146 | 8 | 10 | 1 |
| LaSalle | AtlanticTen | 0.5098 | 147 | 7 | 7 | 5 |
| Marshall | ConferenceUSA | 0.5081 | 148 | 6 | 7 | 5 |
| CentralArkansas | Southland | 0.5074 | 149 | 13 | 4 | 3 |
| EasternWashington | BigSky | 0.5066 | 150 | 13 | 4 | 4 |
| HoustonBaptist | Southland | 0.5065 | 151 | 11 | 8 | 1 |
| Charlotte | ConferenceUSA | 0.5059 | 152 | 8 | 8 | 3 |
| MiamiFL | ACC | 0.5034 | 153 | 6 | 9 | 3 |
| UCIrvine | BigWest | 0.5029 | 154 | 11 | 6 | 3 |
| NorthernIllinois | MidAmerican | 0.5024 | 155 | 7 | 9 | 3 |
| Radford | BigSouth | 0.5022 | 156 | 8 | 5 | 5 |
| MichiganState | BigTen | 0.5017 | 157 | 7 | 10 | 1 |
| Campbell | BigSouth | 0.5003 | 158 | 12 | 4 | 3 |
| FresnoState | MountainWest | 0.4996 | 159 | 9 | 6 | 5 |
| MurrayState | OhioValley | 0.4991 | 160 | 9 | 5 | 5 |
| Mercer | Southern | 0.4986 | 161 | 8 | 8 | 4 |
| Vanderbilt | SEC | 0.4984 | 162 | 5 | 11 | 2 |
| Lafayette | Patriot | 0.4965 | 163 | 9 | 6 | 4 |
| SanFrancisco | WestCoast | 0.4963 | 164 | 7 | 10 | 2 |
| NewMexicoU | MountainWest | 0.4959 | 165 | 10 | 7 | 3 |
| IllinoisChicago | Horizon | 0.4944 | 166 | 12 | 4 | 4 |
| Elon | Colonial | 0.4940 | 167 | 8 | 10 | 1 |
| KansasU | BigTwelve | 0.4935 | 168 | 4 | 13 | 1 |
| OldDominion | ConferenceUSA | 0.4929 | 169 | 4 | 10 | 4 |
| HawaiiU | BigWest | 0.4923 | 170 | 8 | 7 | 2 |
| Denver | Summit | 0.4919 | 171 | 10 | 6 | 4 |
| GrandCanyon | WAC | 0.4902 | 172 | 9 | 8 | 3 |
| MiddleTennessee | ConferenceUSA | 0.4897 | 173 | 7 | 9 | 1 |
| Purdue | BigTen | 0.4896 | 174 | 3 | 14 | 1 |
| Duquesne | AtlanticTen | 0.4894 | 175 | 9 | 8 | 3 |
| LouisianaTech | ConferenceUSA | 0.4882 | 176 | 12 | 6 | 3 |
| Richmond | AtlanticTen | 0.4880 | 177 | 9 | 10 | 1 |
| Gonzaga | WestCoast | 0.4871 | 178 | 5 | 10 | 4 |
| AustinPeay | OhioValley | 0.4871 | 179 | 10 | 8 | 2 |
| VermontU | AmericaEast | 0.4867 | 180 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
| UtahValley | WAC | 0.4847 | 181 | 10 | 8 | 2 |
| IndianaU | BigTen | 0.4846 | 182 | 2 | 13 | 4 |
| AppalachianState | SunBelt | 0.4836 | 183 | 7 | 11 | 1 |
| NCState | ACC | 0.4831 | 184 | 3 | 14 | 1 |
| BoiseState | MountainWest | 0.4810 | 185 | 5 | 9 | 6 |
| Howard | Southwestern | 0.4802 | 186 | 12 | 4 | 5 |
| JacksonvilleU | AtlanticSun | 0.4802 | 187 | 6 | 9 | 2 |
| Creighton | BigEast | 0.4799 | 188 | 8 | 8 | 2 |
| KennesawState | AtlanticSun | 0.4799 | 189 | 11 | 5 | 3 |
| LoyolaMD | Patriot | 0.4795 | 190 | 6 | 7 | 5 |
| LoyolaChicago | MissouriValley | 0.4786 | 191 | 8 | 9 | 2 |
| CentralConnecticut | Northeast | 0.4780 | 192 | 9 | 11 | 1 |
| ColoradoCollege | MountainWest | 0.4774 | 193 | 8 | 8 | 3 |
| PennsylvaniaU | Ivy | 0.4772 | 194 | 8 | 6 | 2 |
| SanDiegoU | WestCoast | 0.4747 | 195 | 4 | 12 | 3 |
| Towson | Colonial | 0.4741 | 196 | 1 | 13 | 5 |
| Quinnipiac | MetroAtlantic | 0.4728 | 197 | 9 | 6 | 3 |
| TennesseeMartin | OhioValley | 0.4705 | 198 | 8 | 8 | 3 |
| Houston | American | 0.4698 | 199 | 7 | 9 | 1 |
| McNeeseState | Southland | 0.4696 | 200 | 10 | 7 | 2 |
| MississippiState | SEC | 0.4695 | 201 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| Drexel | Colonial | 0.4693 | 202 | 5 | 10 | 3 |
| Dartmouth | Ivy | 0.4677 | 203 | 5 | 10 | 1 |
| BowlingGreen | MidAmerican | 0.4676 | 204 | 8 | 9 | 3 |
| NorthernColorado | BigSky | 0.4675 | 205 | 9 | 9 | 2 |
| Marist | MetroAtlantic | 0.4674 | 206 | 10 | 7 | 2 |
| SouthernUtah | BigSky | 0.4673 | 207 | 6 | 9 | 2 |
| NorthernKentucky | Horizon | 0.4671 | 208 | 10 | 6 | 3 |
| Villanova | BigEast | 0.4669 | 209 | 4 | 13 | 1 |
| GeorgiaState | SunBelt | 0.4655 | 210 | 5 | 10 | 2 |
| StonyBrook | AmericaEast | 0.4635 | 211 | 5 | 11 | 5 |
| JacksonState | Southwestern | 0.4630 | 212 | 11 | 6 | 4 |
| Evansville | MissouriValley | 0.4625 | 213 | 5 | 11 | 3 |
| TennesseeTech | OhioValley | 0.4617 | 214 | 9 | 10 | 1 |
| MarylandU | BigTen | 0.4615 | 215 | 3 | 14 | 2 |
| StMarys | WestCoast | 0.4598 | 216 | 2 | 14 | 4 |
| Belmont | OhioValley | 0.4590 | 217 | 5 | 10 | 3 |
| CharlestonSouthern | BigSouth | 0.4584 | 218 | 8 | 8 | 3 |
| Citadel | Southern | 0.4584 | 219 | 10 | 8 | 2 |
| SouthDakotaState | Summit | 0.4572 | 220 | 9 | 9 | 1 |
| Wofford | Southern | 0.4566 | 221 | 9 | 10 | 0 |
| GeorgiaSouthern | SunBelt | 0.4555 | 222 | 4 | 10 | 4 |
| Valparaiso | Horizon | 0.4552 | 223 | 10 | 9 | 1 |
| OralRoberts | Summit | 0.4548 | 224 | 7 | 11 | 2 |
| StLouis | AtlanticTen | 0.4531 | 225 | 7 | 9 | 3 |
| FIU | ConferenceUSA | 0.4529 | 226 | 3 | 9 | 5 |
| UMBC | AmericaEast | 0.4523 | 227 | 6 | 10 | 2 |
| Temple | American | 0.4518 | 228 | 6 | 12 | 1 |
| MissouriState | MissouriValley | 0.4508 | 229 | 6 | 9 | 4 |
| LoyolaMarymount | WestCoast | 0.4500 | 230 | 2 | 16 | 1 |
| Toledo | MidAmerican | 0.4489 | 231 | 6 | 10 | 3 |
| AlabamaState | Southwestern | 0.4472 | 232 | 10 | 6 | 5 |
| IllinoisState | MissouriValley | 0.4465 | 233 | 11 | 9 | 1 |
| UTSA | ConferenceUSA | 0.4458 | 234 | 4 | 14 | 1 |
| UCRiverside | BigWest | 0.4431 | 235 | 2 | 12 | 5 |
| CollegeofCharleston | Colonial | 0.4431 | 236 | 3 | 12 | 4 |
| ColoradoU | PacTwelve | 0.4425 | 237 | 2 | 16 | 2 |
| SouthernMississippi | ConferenceUSA | 0.4425 | 238 | 7 | 9 | 2 |
| Army | Patriot | 0.4419 | 239 | 4 | 12 | 2 |
| MiamiOH | MidAmerican | 0.4416 | 240 | 4 | 13 | 2 |
| MassachusettsU | AtlanticTen | 0.4410 | 241 | 5 | 12 | 1 |
| Pittsburgh | ACC | 0.4408 | 242 | 1 | 15 | 2 |
| Fairfield | MetroAtlantic | 0.4407 | 243 | 5 | 12 | 1 |
| ArkansasState | SunBelt | 0.4391 | 244 | 2 | 12 | 3 |
| Pacific | WestCoast | 0.4388 | 245 | 1 | 14 | 2 |
| IUPUI | Summit | 0.4368 | 246 | 8 | 9 | 2 |
| NorthwesternState | Southland | 0.4357 | 247 | 5 | 10 | 2 |
| WeberState | BigSky | 0.4343 | 248 | 5 | 11 | 1 |
| MaineU | AmericaEast | 0.4342 | 249 | 6 | 7 | 2 |
| RhodeIslandU | AtlanticTen | 0.4335 | 250 | 2 | 12 | 5 |
| SetonHall | BigEast | 0.4334 | 251 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| UNCAsheville | BigSouth | 0.4330 | 252 | 9 | 11 | 0 |
| Oakland | Horizon | 0.4308 | 253 | 7 | 10 | 1 |
| NorthFlorida | AtlanticSun | 0.4289 | 254 | 3 | 11 | 3 |
| LouisianaMonroe | SunBelt | 0.4241 | 255 | 2 | 14 | 2 |
| IncarnateWord | Southland | 0.4224 | 256 | 4 | 12 | 1 |
| PortlandState | BigSky | 0.4216 | 257 | 5 | 11 | 2 |
| YoungstownState | Horizon | 0.4197 | 258 | 7 | 9 | 2 |
| NJIT | AtlanticSun | 0.4193 | 259 | 5 | 11 | 2 |
| VMI | Southern | 0.4179 | 260 | 7 | 13 | 0 |
| UCDavis | BigWest | 0.4179 | 261 | 1 | 14 | 3 |
| Wagner | Northeast | 0.4155 | 262 | 9 | 9 | 1 |
| Akron | MidAmerican | 0.4154 | 263 | 4 | 12 | 3 |
| MississippiValley | Southwestern | 0.4145 | 264 | 7 | 7 | 3 |
| American | Patriot | 0.4144 | 265 | 3 | 13 | 3 |
| Davidson | AtlanticTen | 0.4143 | 266 | 2 | 14 | 3 |
| NevadaU | MountainWest | 0.4142 | 267 | 3 | 13 | 2 |
| CalStateBakersfield | WAC | 0.4137 | 268 | 4 | 14 | 2 |
| VCU | AtlanticTen | 0.4121 | 269 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| EasternMichigan | MidAmerican | 0.4119 | 270 | 3 | 15 | 1 |
| Presbyterian | BigSouth | 0.4105 | 271 | 3 | 10 | 3 |
| SamHoustonState | Southland | 0.4084 | 272 | 5 | 12 | 2 |
| LongIsland | Northeast | 0.4081 | 273 | 5 | 13 | 1 |
| Xavier | BigEast | 0.4072 | 274 | 2 | 14 | 3 |
| UNLV | MountainWest | 0.4070 | 275 | 4 | 14 | 2 |
| StBonaventure | AtlanticTen | 0.4063 | 276 | 2 | 13 | 4 |
| AirForce | MountainWest | 0.4062 | 277 | 5 | 10 | 3 |
| Bryant | Northeast | 0.4044 | 278 | 6 | 7 | 5 |
| EasternKentucky | OhioValley | 0.4043 | 279 | 5 | 11 | 2 |
| UAB | ConferenceUSA | 0.4024 | 280 | 1 | 15 | 1 |
| SouthDakotaU | Summit | 0.4014 | 281 | 5 | 13 | 1 |
| ClevelandState | Horizon | 0.3990 | 282 | 6 | 10 | 1 |
| IndianaState | MissouriValley | 0.3982 | 283 | 5 | 12 | 1 |
| Lamar | Southland | 0.3979 | 284 | 2 | 14 | 3 |
| Winthrop | BigSouth | 0.3975 | 285 | 2 | 13 | 3 |
| JacksonvilleState | OhioValley | 0.3973 | 286 | 2 | 16 | 2 |
| Stetson | AtlanticSun | 0.3960 | 287 | 2 | 11 | 3 |
| OhioU | MidAmerican | 0.3944 | 288 | 1 | 15 | 2 |
| Lehigh | Patriot | 0.3925 | 289 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
| ColoradoState | MountainWest | 0.3921 | 290 | 3 | 15 | 1 |
| NorthDakotaU | BigSky | 0.3904 | 291 | 3 | 13 | 2 |
| Iona | MetroAtlantic | 0.3893 | 292 | 2 | 14 | 2 |
| Chattanooga | Southern | 0.3886 | 293 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| Canisius | MetroAtlantic | 0.3879 | 294 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| UNOmaha | Summit | 0.3854 | 295 | 5 | 13 | 1 |
| Binghamton | AmericaEast | 0.3852 | 296 | 1 | 13 | 4 |
| NichollsState | Southland | 0.3848 | 297 | 4 | 11 | 1 |
| WrightState | Horizon | 0.3840 | 298 | 2 | 15 | 1 |
| UNI | MissouriValley | 0.3840 | 299 | 4 | 9 | 3 |
| TexasSouthern | Southwestern | 0.3837 | 300 | 3 | 9 | 3 |
| PrairieViewA&M | Southwestern | 0.3833 | 301 | 4 | 10 | 3 |
| HolyCross | Patriot | 0.3818 | 302 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Niagara | MetroAtlantic | 0.3776 | 303 | 4 | 11 | 2 |
| FairleighDickinson | Northeast | 0.3759 | 304 | 1 | 16 | 3 |
| AlabamaA&M | Southwestern | 0.3751 | 305 | 4 | 12 | 3 |
| IdahoState | BigSky | 0.3750 | 306 | 2 | 17 | 0 |
| SacredHeart | Northeast | 0.3745 | 307 | 5 | 10 | 3 |
| TexasRGV | WAC | 0.3718 | 308 | 7 | 9 | 1 |
| GardnerWebb | BigSouth | 0.3714 | 309 | 1 | 12 | 6 |
| WesternCarolina | Southern | 0.3691 | 310 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| SIUEdwardsville | OhioValley | 0.3650 | 311 | 2 | 13 | 3 |
| KansasState | Independent | 0.3598 | 312 | 1 | 14 | 1 |
| ArkansasPineBluff | Southwestern | 0.3575 | 313 | 3 | 12 | 1 |
| NorthernArizona | BigSky | 0.3573 | 314 | 2 | 16 | 1 |
| Detroit | Horizon | 0.3554 | 315 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| UMassLowell | AmericaEast | 0.3542 | 316 | 0 | 13 | 4 |
| MountStMary | Northeast | 0.3477 | 317 | 3 | 12 | 3 |
| USCUpstate | AtlanticSun | 0.3441 | 318 | 0 | 15 | 2 |
| TexasCorpusChristi | Southland | 0.3380 | 319 | 1 | 17 | 1 |
| IPFW | Summit | 0.3344 | 320 | 1 | 16 | 1 |
| WesternIllinois | Summit | 0.3331 | 321 | 1 | 15 | 1 |
| AlcornState | Southwestern | 0.3302 | 322 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| GreenBay | Horizon | 0.3291 | 323 | 0 | 15 | 1 |
| SouthCarolinaState | Independent | 0.3269 | 324 | 1 | 13 | 1 |
| StPeters | MetroAtlantic | 0.3269 | 325 | 1 | 14 | 1 |
| NewMexicoState | WAC | 0.3188 | 326 | 0 | 17 | 1 |
| RobertMorris | Northeast | 0.3120 | 327 | 0 | 15 | 3 |
| EasternIllinois | OhioValley | 0.3111 | 328 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| ChicagoState | WAC | 0.3079 | 329 | 0 | 15 | 1 |
| SouthernU | Southwestern | 0.3006 | 330 | 0 | 14 | 2 |
| Hampton | Independent | 0.2842 | 331 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| Grambling | Southwestern | 0.2725 | 332 | 0 | 10 | 1 |
| DelawareState | Independent | 0.2635 | 333 | 0 | 16 | 0 |
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